At a time when tensions across the Taiwan Strait are running high due to the Chinese People’s Liberation Army conducting military exercises around Taiwan, the Taiwan Affairs Office of China’s State Council published a white paper titled The Taiwan Question and China’s Reunification in the New Era. The last time the Chinese government published a white paper on the Taiwan issue was 22 years ago, and this is the first such paper to be published since Xi Jinping (習近平) became president of China. Beijing’s decision to publish its third-ever white paper on the Taiwan issue at this time reveals that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is feeling the pressure of the international community’s support for Taiwan and its efforts to contain China, especially under the influence of the US’ Indo-Pacific strategy. A wide range of international organizations — including NATO, the Five Eyes alliance, the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, AUKUS and, most recently, the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity — all view communist China their main adversary, or at least as one of their main adversaries, and these groupings have launched military, intelligence, economic and diplomatic efforts to contain Beijing. As pressure from the international community grows, it has become more difficult for China to attack Taiwan. It was with this in mind that the Chinese government published its third-ever white paper on the Taiwan issue, showing that Chinese leaders have run into a major stumbling block on their intended path toward unification with Taiwan. They now face huge risks that they had not expected. Therefore, they decided to launch another international opinion offensive so as to make their voice heard on the Taiwan issue. The Chinese government repeatedly states in its white paper that China wants “peaceful reunification,” and it promises that “reunification” will bring all kinds of benefits to Taiwan. It
Not in the shadows, but rather in the limelight of the visit by US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi, we now have available China’s white paper, issued freely for all to read. My comments here will not state the obviously expected: China remains determined that Taiwan is a natural, historical and cultural component of the Chinese nation, and of — in a broader spirit — Chinese civilization. All of this is one compounded “indisputable fact.” There seems little point in analyzing this well-known position. What is of great interest is the manner, if any, in which the present Chinese government manages the details and nuances, especially how far it attempts something of a soft-power strategy — or at least a diplomatic and evolutionary approach. It is also worth querying how far it acknowledges the impact of the US, the likely position of the true global system, especially South Asia and Europe, or provides any gradient of alternatives to a simple once-and-for-all unification. Does the white paper see the “Taiwan question” in a global context? Yes, there are frequent allusions to “external forces” that have “instigated provocative actions by the separatist forces ... and undermined peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region.” Does China see unification as a natural historical continuation toward an inevitable rejuvenation? Most certainly it does. Much of the document is historical, ranging from ancient times to more detailed interpretations of the years since 1945. There is a neglect of the years from the 1840s to the 1890s when imperial China certainly failed to maintain its responsibilities over Taiwan in the face of commercial aggression and warfare, but otherwise the judgements are not ones that would be condemned by many Western historians. Does the white paper merely repeat the idee fixe of a non-changing “status quo”? This is restated, but
On the evening of Aug. 2, an aircraft carrying US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi landed safely in Taipei, clearing all doubts about whether the visit would take place. Her flight to Taiwan became the most-tracked in the history of flight tracking site Flightradar24, causing it to crash and highlighting the global attention her visit received. Prior to Pelosi’s visit, China released various messages, from the hawkish media’s threatening words to military intimidation or Chinese diplomats’ warnings. Soon after Pelosi’s plane landed in Taiwan, China’s Xinhua news agency was authorized to announce that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) would conduct live-fire military drills surrounding Taiwan proper, warning airlines and ships operating in Asia to avoid the waters and airspace around the nation. The PLA might not have the capacity to completely blockade Taiwan’s sea and airspace, but by announcing the location and area the drills would take place, it created a “quasi-blockade” deterrent effect, achieving its purpose of cognitive warfare against Taiwanese. First, the US did not break the mold regarding US-China interactions, and was simply following an example set in 1997 when then-US House speaker Newt Gingrich visited Taiwan. However, instead of the missile tests it conducted in the waters surrounding Taiwan during the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis in 1995 and 1996, China wanted to show that its capabilities are incomparably better than before. Therefore, the military drills focused on firing missiles into the Pacific Ocean to symbolize breaking through the island chain. Beijing’s actions suggest it has long planned to do this, and it was by no means a simple response to Pelosi’s visit, but aimed at deterring Taiwan, expressing China’s stance to the US and demonstrating its power before the Chinese Communist Party’s 20th National Congress. Second, the drills might also draw lessons from the Russian-Ukrainian war.
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With a message that blends Christianity, motherhood and patriotism, Italian lawmaker Giorgia Meloni is riding a wave of popularity that next month could see her become Italy’s first female prime minister and its first far-right leader since World War II. Even though her Brothers of Italy party has neofascist roots, Meloni has sought to dispel concerns about its legacy, saying voters have grown tired of such discussions. Still, there are nagging signs that such a legacy cannot be shaken off so easily: Her party’s symbol includes an image of a tricolored flame, borrowed from a neofascist party formed shortly after the end of the war. If Brothers of Italy prevails at the polls on Sept. 25 and the 45-year-old Meloni becomes prime minister, it would come almost 100 years to the month after Benito Mussolini, Italy’s fascist dictator, came to power in October 1922. In 2019, Meloni proudly introduced Caio Giulio Cesare Mussolini, a great-grandson of the dictator, as one of her candidates for the European parliament, although he eventually lost. For most Italian voters, questions about anti-fascism and neofascism are not “a key driver of whom to vote for,” said Lorenzo Pregliasco, head of the YouTrend polling company. “They don’t see that as part of the present. They see that as part of the past.” Still, Meloni is sensitive to international scrutiny about her possible leadership and prefers the term conservative instead of far right to describe her party. She recently recorded video messages in English, French and Spanish that said the Italian right “has handed fascism over to history for decades now, unambiguously condemning the suppression of democracy and the ignominious anti-Jewish laws.” That was a reference to the 1938 laws banning Italy’s small Jewish community from participating in business, education and other facets of everyday life. The laws paved the way for the deportation of
First they jailed their opponents, now they have set their sights on the Catholic Church: The country’s first couple — Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega and his wife, Nicaraguan Vice President Rosario Murillo — are in a bid for absolute control over the lives of citizens, experts say. The former guerilla and his partner have steadily increased their grip on power since he returned to the nation’s top office in 2007, particularly via constitutional reforms that removed presidential term limits. This style of government “concentrates discretionary decisionmaking in the hands of the presidential couple,” said Elvira Cuadra, a sociologist who lives in exile. The shift toward authoritarianism effectively allows Ortega to rule for life, she said. “What we have is the building of a cult of personality,” said Eliseo Nunez, an analyst and former Nicaraguan lawmaker also living in exile. Things have become markedly worse in Nicaragua since the brutal repression of anti-government protests in 2018 that left more than 350 people dead. In the past year alone, the Nicaraguan government arrested 46 opposition figures and critics, while the courts sentenced them to up to 13 years in prison. Among those detained were seven presidential hopefuls prevented from standing in November last year’s elections, helping Ortega win a fourth consecutive term. However, it is not just the opposition and detractors being marginalized or persecuted. Ortega’s Sandinista National Liberation Front party is being purged of dissenting voices within. The Catholic Church has become the last bastion of resistance and rebellion against the government, riling the presidential couple. In her daily speeches, Murillo has called criticism by bishops a crime and “a sin against spirituality.” Rolando Alvarez, a bishop in the northeastern city of Matagalpa, has now been confined to his Managua residence for more than a week, after the government accused him and the church of inciting violence to destabilize the country. “What has
In the year since the US’ disgraceful abandonment of Afghanistan to the Taliban, the country has gone down precisely the path any logical observer would have predicted: A medieval, jihadist, terrorist-sheltering emirate has been established. The US will incur costs for betraying its Afghan allies for a long time to come, but nobody will pay a higher price than Afghans. The geopolitical fallout of Washington’s humiliating retreat from Afghanistan — after US President Joe Biden followed through on the withdrawal commitment of his predecessor, Donald Trump — is still growing. By exposing the US as a power in decline, the withdrawal gave a huge boost to militant Islamists everywhere, while emboldening Russia and China. It is no coincidence that, not long after the fall of Kabul, Russia began massing forces along Ukraine’s borders, and China sent a record number of warplanes into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone. However, things are much worse in Afghanistan. Women and girls have lost their rights to employment and education, with many girls subjected to sexual slavery through forced marriages to Taliban fighters. Taliban death squads have been systematically identifying and murdering those who cooperated with US forces. Torture and execution have become commonplace. Afghanistan’s Hindus and Sikhs — descendants of those who withstood the medieval-era conversions to Sunni Islam by the country’s Arab conquerors — have been fleeing to India to avoid slaughter. The regime’s Cabinet is a veritable who is who of international terrorists and narcotics kingpins. Sirajuddin Haqqani, who is responsible for Afghanistan’s internal security and preventing the country from becoming a safe haven for international terrorists, is the leader of the ruthless Haqqani network. The US has designated him a “global terrorist” and placed a US$10 million bounty on his head. Not surprisingly, the Taliban continues to shelter known terrorists, as the Biden-ordered assassination of
The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has restarted military maneuvers around Taiwan in response to the visit of a delegation of US lawmakers led by US Senator Ed Markey, who arrived in Taiwan on Sunday. Having failed to intimidate Taiwanese with its response to US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit earlier this month, Beijing is having another go at it. On Sunday, the PLA deployed 22 warplanes and six warships in areas around Taiwan, with 10 aircraft crossing the Taiwan Strait median line to coincide with the delegation’s arrival. Monday saw a slight increase in aircraft sorties, with the Ministry of National Defense detecting five PLA Navy vessels in waters around Taiwan and 30 aircraft, 15 of which traversed the median line. The PLA’s Eastern Theater Command on Monday released a propaganda video that showed footage of Penghu County, purportedly taken by a PLA fighter jet that flew close to the outlying islands that day. Rebutting that claim, a spokesperson for the air force labeled the video information warfare, saying: “The foreshortening effect obtained through the use of an ultra-long telephoto lens, combined with good visibility on the day, gives the impression that the islands are much nearer than they actually were.” It is not the first time that the PLA has been caught using exaggerated claims, doctored images or fake footage as information warfare. After then-US secretary of health and human services Alex Azar visited Taiwan in August 2020, the PLA released a propaganda video depicting a fictional bombing raid on the US military’s Andersen Air Force Base in Guam. The video included segments from two Hollywood action films: 2008’s The Hurt Locker and 1996’s The Rock. Pelosi’s visit saw false reports of PLA aircraft crossing the Taiwan Strait and a missile attack on Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport circulating on the Internet.
With China threatening waves of economic sanctions following US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, whether to continue with the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) or abolish it has once more become the subject of debate. The pact has held Taiwan back for so long, it is perhaps time to exhibit some economic resilience and move on. The original objective of signing the agreement more than a decade ago was to set out the framework for economic activity between Taiwan and China, and iron out protocols in four areas: trade in goods, trade in services, investment guarantees and conflict resolution. To date, the only protocol that has been successfully negotiated is the one on investment guarantees, and that was implemented in 2013. There have been no consultations between the two parties since April 2016, making the agreement worth little more than the paper it is written on. The value the ECFA brings to either side is essentially limited to the initial appetizers, the so-called “early harvest” list in trade in goods and services. In trade in services, 16 local banks were able to take advantage of a preferential threshold to set up branches in China, and 20 or so businesses were granted qualified foreign institutional investor status, allowing them to participate in China’s stock exchanges. For trade in goods, China provided an early harvest list of tariff exemptions for 521 industrial products, mainly in the fields of petrochemicals, machinery, textiles and transport, and tariff-free preferential terms for agricultural and fisheries products, including fruit, cut flowers and fisheries goods. The list came into effect in January 2011, and in the initial stages the value of exports to China of goods on the list did increase, growing by 18 percent at the high point. However, in the past few years, the economic benefit from
US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan on Aug. 3 and 4 triggered a series of retaliatory countermeasures from China that included military, diplomatic, economic and information attacks. The biggest of these was an unprecedented large-scale military exercise that covered seven areas around the nation’s waters and lasted four days. In terms of information warfare, it was originally thought that China would levy high-visibility disruptions and damage government information systems with pre-emptive backdoor programs. Fortunately, this wave of cyberattack seemed to aim only to blockade the network services of government agencies — a denial of service (DoS) attack — rather than to damage their underlying information techology systems. Although the services of several government Web sites, including the Presidential Office and the Ministry of National Defense, were temporarily interrupted, they were able to recover quickly. Overall, the damage from this wave of cyberattack was quite minor. The scale of the DoS attack was not particularly excessive, either. According to publicly released reports, the Web sites of government offices collectively suffered about 15,000GB of cyberattack traffic throughout the day on Aug. 2, which is 23 times as much traffic as during the heaviest previous attack in a single day. However, a 2020 study conducted by Amazon found that the average traffic volume of the highest-end DoS attacks it experienced that year was more than 100GB per second, or about 360,000GB in one hour. Therefore, if China were to militarily launch a DoS attack against the whole nation, the scale of the attack is expected to be at least 100 times larger than what it did this time. Suppose a network service’s maximum processing capacity is 1,000 requests per second. When a DoS attacker sends requests to this service at a rate far exceeding its processing capacity, say 5,000 requests per second, the
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida last week revamped his Cabinet, replacing former defense minister Nobuo Kishi in consideration of his health. The newly appointed minister of defense, Yasukazu Hamada, and former defense minister Shigeru Ishiba, along with several lawmakers, visited Taiwan last month to hold talks with senior Taiwanese officials and academics on security issues. The delegation met with President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), reaffirming the Japanese government’s stance on cross-strait issues. Kishida’s change of staff carries obvious implications. When South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol declined to meet US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi on her Asia tour, citing his vacation schedule, people accused him of intentionally shunning the face-to-face meeting to placate China. Yoon’s original “pro-US, anti-China” stance was brought into question, making critics wonder if there has been a change in policy. South Korea also pushed back against China’s demand that it abide by its 2017 agreement — called the “three noes, one restriction” — no additional deployment in the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system, no participation in a US missile defense system, no formation of a trilateral military alliance with Washington and Tokyo, and restriction in the use of the THAAD system deployed. As Seoul’s deployment of a THAAD system allows the US to keep an eye on China’s movements, Beijing has repeatedly demanded the removal of the system and even interfered in South Korea’s domestic politics in the hope of abolishing it. Even though former South Korean president Moon Jae-in has been considered a liberal for forming close ties with China, Yoon’s national strategy has been far from ambiguous: The THAAD system is grounded on a firm position of protecting the life and safety of South Korea. China has also been spurned by Europe. The Beijing-led “Cooperation Between China and Central and Eastern European Countries” initiative had 17
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The Aug. 5 demonstrations by the main opposition Indian National Congress party against soaring food prices and unemployment began like any other recent protest — an electorally weak opposition taking to the New Delhi streets against Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s massively popular government. However, the protests quickly took a turn when key Congress lawmakers led by Rahul Gandhi — Modi’s main opponent in the previous two general elections — trooped to parliament, leading to fierce standoffs with police. “Democracy is a memory [in India],” Gandhi later tweeted, describing the dramatic photographs that showed him and his party leaders being briefly detained by police. Gandhi’s statement was largely seen as yet another frantic effort by a crisis-ridden opposition party to shore up its relevance and was dismissed by the government. However, it resonated with the growing sentiment that India’s democracy — the world’s largest with nearly 1.4 billion people — is in retreat and its democratic foundations are floundering. Experts and critics say trust in the judiciary as a check on executive power is eroding. Assaults on the press and free speech have grown brazen. Religious minorities are facing increasing attacks by Hindu nationalists. Largely peaceful protests, sometimes against provocative policies, have been stamped out by Internet clampdowns and the jailing of activists. “Most former colonies have struggled to put a lasting democratic process in place. India was more successful than most in doing that,” Booker Prize-winning novelist and activist Arundhati Roy said. “And now, 75 years on, to witness it being dismantled systematically and in shockingly violent ways is traumatic.” Modi’s ministers say India’s democratic principles are robust, even thriving: “If today there is a sense in the world that democracy is, in some form, the future, then a large part of it is due to India,” Indian Minister of External Affairs Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said, adding
If there was a prize for the most quotable comment on international relations so far this year, Indian Minister of Foreign Affairs Subrahmanyam Jaishankar would be in the running. Responding to criticism of his country’s neutral stance on the Russia-Ukraine war at a security forum in Slovakia in June, Jaishankar said that “Europe has to grow out of the mindset that Europe’s problems are the world’s problems, but the world’s problems are not Europe’s problems.” Like most major crises, the war is shedding stark light on our era and India’s response to it is particularly illuminating. India’s foreign policy does more than just exemplify how the conflict has intensified deglobalization trends. It also highlights the paradox inherent in the country’s increasing emphasis on “strategic autonomy” as the world fragments into rival power centers: the US and its alliance system versus China and its major satellite, Russia. The essence of this paradox is that India’s quest for self-reliance — keeping its distance from the principals of “Cold War 2.0” and seeking advantage from diverse relationships — entails multidimensional international engagement. For example, European politicians painfully weaning their countries off imported Russian energy have criticized India for buying more Russian oil — after Western sanctions reduced its price by about one-third relative to the world market price. Indian purchases of Russian crude increased to 1.1 million barrels per day by late last month and now account for more than one-fifth of Indian oil consumption, compared with just 2 percent last year. The standard official Indian response is that, despite Europe’s extensive sanctions, the continent’s energy trade with Russia still dwarfs India’s. However, more tellingly, India’s purchases of discounted Russian oil are not only cushioning the blow to itself as a poor energy-importing country, but also helping to prevent even more economic pain for Europe. If the
Taiwan is a bastion for LGBTQ+ rights in Asia, and it wears the status proudly. Before the COVID-19 pandemic halted travel, people from across the region would make a pilgrimage to Taipei for its annual Pride parade in October, proudly waving their national flags remixed with the rainbow in a land where they are able to do so freely. Given this track record, it was an honor when Kaohsiung was chosen to host the ninth WorldPride, a semi-biennial event licensed by InterPride with parades, festivals, conferences and other queer-centric events. With the exception of Jerusalem in 2006, every host city has been in a Western country, which would have made WorldPride Taiwan 2025 the first edition to fully realize the event’s global aspirations. Yet for an organization whose purpose is to fight for human rights, InterPride has been disappointingly indulgent when it comes to self-determination. The first sign of trouble came with the winner announcement. What was supposed to be a triumphant moment for Taiwan was undercut by InterPride mistakenly calling the nation a “region,” prompting a tripartite meeting convened by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in November last year to negotiate a correction. At that meeting, the three sides agreed on the name “WorldPride Taiwan 2025.” Controversy that should have ended there resurfaced during contract negotiations and came to a head on Friday, when the WorldPride 2025 Taiwan Preparation Committee decided to terminate the event. The “final straw” was InterPride’s insistence that the event’s name use “Kaohsiung,” rather than “Taiwan,” suddenly reneging on their agreement. According to the committee, this was after InterPride repeatedly raised doubts as to whether Taiwan could host such a major event, as though the same people have not since 2003 been hosting one of the world’s largest annual Pride celebrations and successfully lobbied to create one of
Following US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei, military exercises conducted by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army in the waters and airspace around Taiwan raised concerns about Beijing’s ambition of pursuing hegemony by embracing the “might is right” approach — that is, intimidating its weaker neighbors whenever it can. Concerns over the possibility that China might soon launch a military invasion of Taiwan have been lingering, especially in Taiwan’s neighbors such as Japan and South Korea. Even before Pelosi’s visit, 73 percent of respondents in the two countries believed that China might soon take military measures to unify Taiwan, and a majority expected their leaders to enhance ties with the US to deter Beijing’s risky actions, according to a survey released by Japan’s Yomiuri Shimbun and South Korea’s Hankook Ilbo in June. While international pundits voiced concerns over the fate of Taiwan, a large number of Taiwanese — amid the brewing tensions across the Taiwan Strait — have remained unusually calm and continued their daily routines as normal. No panic buying, stockpiling, or hoarding happened; and people remained disciplined. In general, the social atmosphere in Taiwan — “the most dangerous place on Earth,” as declared by The Economist in May last year — has been quiet, with no indication of worry or hasty posturing. Although the current situation is tense and pressing, residents of Taiwan have been cognizant of China’s provocative actions for more than 20 years and know that they serve Beijing’s propaganda purposes rather than its military goals. For Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平), the leader of the world’s second-largest economy, to look weak on Taiwan, which has been framed by Chinese leaders as one of Beijing’s core interests, is unthinkable. Hence, China’s retaliation to Pelosi’s visit aimed at cementing Xi’s image among Chinese. It is unlikely that
In analyzing the Chinese military’s four days of live-fire exercises around Taiwan proper, talking heads on Taiwanese political television programs expended a great deal of time explaining why the Ministry of National Defense did not issue an air-defense warning when China’s military fired ballistic missiles into outer space above Taiwan. However, the significance of the missile launches is not how high they flew, but the intent behind their use and where they landed. China claimed that the missiles had “accurately hit their targets,” which included impact points near Taiwan’s vital ports. This demonstrates that Beijing possesses the intent and the capability to implement a blockade of Taiwan. The locations of many of the missiles’ splashdowns inside Taiwan’s territorial waters likely meets the UN’s definition of an act of aggression by a foreign nation. Therefore, it is insufficient for the government to issue a strong protest against China’s behavior. The nation’s diplomatic corps must rally the international community and make the case for an international convention on Taiwan. Taiwanese must also unite, and with one voice demand that Beijing cease engaging in hostile military behavior. Taiwanese must also call on the international community to pay closer attention to the nation’s security needs, by making the argument that Taiwan’s continued existence as a free nation is vital to upholding international law and world peace. If the world does not take immediate action to constrain China’s bellicose and destructive behavior, recent history tells us what will happen next. When the international community failed to prevent Nazi Germany from invading neighboring nations during the mid-1930s, the seeds of World War II were sown and it was not long before the human race was once again afflicted with a great calamity. Ministry of National Defense spokespersons, think tanks and even pan-green-camp-aligned talking heads on television frequently refer to China’s military
Temple food fights I recently read an op-ed in the Liberty Times [the Taipei Times’ sister paper] that called for a new approach to handling food offerings at pudu (普度) ceremonies held for the dead by temples during Ghost Month, and I fully agree with it. There is a famous temple in Miaoli County that holds a pudu every Ghost Month, which is the seventh month of the lunar calendar. After the ceremony, worshipers are allowed to take food offerings home. Often, while the masters of the temple are still chanting, worshipers begin fighting over the food, using plastic bags, sacks or even carts to haul the offerings away. The chaotic scenes at the temple repeat year after year, and they sometimes even make the news. For people unfamiliar with the ceremony, the prayers must look as if hungry ghosts have descended on the temple to gorge themselves. Due to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the “food fight” was suspended last year. I wonder if the temple will also suspend the food offerings this year to save its image. It is said that grabbing offerings means grabbing “luck” and that eating such food can keep you safe. This is as groundless as the practice of racing to offer the first incense stick at temples on the Lunar New Year’s Day. Such absurd and irrational behavior reflects not only people’s greed, but also their lack of morals. In Buddhism, personal karma is determined by one’s good and bad deeds. So your karma results from a cause-and-effect relationship — just like oil floating on the surface of water and a rock sinking to the bottom. You reap what you sow, and your luck has nothing to do with the offerings. Such superstition is beyond comprehension. On the contrary, some temples in Chiayi City try to
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