As Taiwan’s second most populous city, Taichung looms large in the electoral map. Taiwanese political commentators describe it — along with neighboring Changhua County — as Taiwan’s “swing states” (搖擺州), which is a curious direct borrowing from American election terminology.
In the early post-Martial Law era, Taichung was referred to as a “desert of democracy” because while the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) was winning elections in the north and south, Taichung remained staunchly loyal to the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT). That changed over time, but in both Changhua and Taichung, the DPP still suffers from a “one-term curse,” with the party never able to hold on to the county commissioner or mayoral posts for more than one term.
In 2010, the former Taichung City and County merged. This had political implications, as the powerful KMT patronage factions had withered away in the former Taichung City roughly a decade earlier. To this day, however, in the less urban former Taichung County, the Red and Black factions remain relevant.
Photo: Hsu Kuo-chen, Liberty Times
In the 2010s, the region drifted closer to the pro-DPP, pan-green camp, but have since been drifting back towards the pro-KMT, pan-blue camp. In the 2024 presidential election, both DPP and KMT candidates scored lower than the national average in Taichung, but the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) candidate Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) scored several points higher.
Taichung voters are widely perceived as lacking the ideological fervor of the deep-green south and the pan-blue loyalty of the north. They are usually described as being more “practical” and “pragmatic.”
Taichung voters like politicians who get things done, not the fist-fighting, grandstanding blowhards that get elected elsewhere.
Photo: Liao Yao-tung, Liberty Times
All of these factors are playing out in this year’s mayoral election.
THE DPP CANDIDATE
Current Taichung Mayor Lu Shiow-yen (盧秀燕) of the KMT is serving out her second term and cannot run for reelection. In polling, she receives high marks from her constituents and is often at or near the top in national polling on the most popular politicians. Her endorsement will help whichever candidate wins the KMT primary, but her closeness to both of the candidates puts her in an awkward position.
Photo: Chang Hsuan-che, Taipei Times
The DPP had an easy task in nominating lawmaker Ho Hsin-chun (何欣純) as their mayoral candidate.
In over a decade of covering central Taiwan news for ICRT, Ho left almost no impression on me. She has a master’s degree in women’s studies from the University of York in the UK, and her cousin is former lawmaker, Cthonic frontman and current de facto ambassador to Finland, Freddy Lim (林昶佐).
She does not grandstand, there are no scandals and not much to say about her. She appears to be a lawmaker who delivers for her constituents, who have consistently reelected her in landslides — including by the widest margin nationally in 2020.
In Taichung, this is a bonus — a can-do, get things done for constituents approach is popular. She is pitching herself as being more capable than Lu, and wants to give out cash bonuses to residents. Her weakness is a lack of name recognition outside of her district.
RED FACTION SHOWDOWN
The KMT primary is far more complicated and interesting.
But for some twists of fate, it is possible that current deputy legislative speaker Johnny Chiang (江啟臣) could have become a DPP politician.
Chiang was originally an academic educated — and for a time teaching — in the US. During this time, his comments on Taiwan sovereignty sounded more pan-green than pan-blue, saying, “The international community absolutely does not deny Taiwan’s right to become a state, and the international community absolutely cannot force Taiwan to become a part of China.”
Once in the KMT, he backtracked by saying, “This is academic theory.”
His uncle, Antonio Chiang (江春男), was prominent in the dangwai (黨外, “outside the party”) democracy movement and was later appointed by the pan-green Liberty Times as the founding editor-in-chief of the Taipei Times.
Johnny Chiang married the daughter of a local KMT patronage faction politician from Taipei County (now New Taipei City). That connection, and that he hails from the Red Faction stronghold of Fengyuan District (豐原), apparently caught the eye of the Red Faction leader and recruited him.
Widely presumed the frontrunner, Chiang lost the 2018 KMT Taichung mayoral primary in an upset, trailing Lu Shiow-yen by only 0.6 percent. Within the margin of error, he could have contested the result, but did not. Instead, he threw his support behind Lu and led her campaign team — presumably on the implicit understanding she would return the favor.
Like Ho, he is low drama and highly popular with his constituents, so much so that he won reelection by the highest margin nationally in 2024.
Chiang later served as KMT party chairman for nearly a year and a half. He was hated by Beijing, and he is the only KMT chair in the last two decades to not receive a formal congratulations on his election from Zhongnanhai.
His tenure was notable for his attempt to remove the “1992 consensus” from the party platform, but internal opposition scuppered his plans. He also arranged for the KMT to reopen an office in Washington.
His challenger, Yang Chiung-ying (楊瓊瓔), trails Chiang in the polls, has never led the party, ranks lower than him in the legislature and lacks Chiang’s international experience. She also lacks his name recognition and national prominence.
Worse, she lost her district in 2016 in an upset to New Power Party candidate Hung Tzu-yung (洪慈庸), and only barely eked out reelection in 2020 when a third-party candidate syphoned off votes from Hung.
However, she has reasons for staying in the race. After losing to Hung, Mayor Lu appointed her vice mayor, giving both her and Chiang strong ties to Lu.
Unlike Chiang, who keeps his distance from factional affairs, Yang was born into a Red Faction family and likely has far more loyalty from both the Red and Black factions. They probably consider her a better bet to look out for their interests.
Yang is also 61, and likely considers this her last chance. She has been in politics since 1989 and has paid in her dues. Internally in the KMT, she could make the case that at age 53, Chiang has more time on the clock.
She may also have a powerful ally in newly elected KMT Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun (鄭麗文), who is widely considered to distrust her predecessor Chiang for his pro-American, Beijing-unfriendly stances.
On Jan. 16, Cheng brought the candidates together to negotiate an agreement on who the candidate would be, but no consensus was reached. Negotiations are ongoing.
Cheng insists, likely because there are suspicions she is favoring Yang, that the entire process is fair and by the book. There is no indication that she is attempting to rig the game at this point, but it is still early.
If no consensus is reached, it will go to a primary. This could be a 70 percent public opinion poll and 30 percent party member poll as per the party’s rules, though it is far more common that during negotiations candidates mutually agree to 100 percent public opinion polling — so much so that I cannot recall a major 70/30 primary in recent memory.
A 70/30 poll would likely benefit Yang, while a 100 percent public polling primary would benefit Chiang. This could be a major sticking point, and though neither candidate is known for drama, this may turn out to be the exception.
Another big question is whether Mayor Lu will get involved. If she does, she could resolve the issue — or make it worse.
Donovan’s Deep Dives is a regular column by Courtney Donovan Smith (石東文) who writes in-depth analysis on everything about Taiwan’s political scene and geopolitics. Donovan is also the central Taiwan correspondent at ICRT FM100 Radio News, co-publisher of Compass Magazine, co-founder Taiwan Report (report.tw) and former chair of the Taichung American Chamber of Commerce. Follow him on X: @donovan_smith.
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