Mon, Mar 16, 2026 page8

• Richard D. Fisher, Jr. On Taiwan: Iran-Venezuela Lessons For Taiwan

  • By Richard D. Fisher, Jr.
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  On March 22, 2023, at the close of their meeting in Moscow, media microphones were allowed to record Chinese Communist Party (CCP) dictator Xi Jinping (習近平) telling Russia’s dictator Vladimir Putin, “Right now there are changes — the likes of which we haven’t seen for 100 years — and we are the ones driving these changes together.”

  Widely read as Xi’s oath to create a China-Russia-dominated world order, it can be considered a high point for the China-Russia-Iran-North Korea (CRINK) informal alliance, which also included the dictatorships of Venezuela and Cuba.

  China enables and assists Russia’s war against Ukraine and North Korea’s nuclear buildup; it enables Pakistan’s September 2025 nuclear alliance with Saudi Arabia, and enabled and assisted Iran’s nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs, while Iran and North Korea assist Russia’s war, respectively, with drones and troops.

  

  But in their hubris, Xi and Putin likely did not expect the re-election of President Donald J. Trump, and most likely did not expect that two years later, in March 2026, their ally Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro would be cooling in the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn, New York; their ally Iranian dictator Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his nuclear weapons program would be dust; and their ally Cuba would be on the verge of collapse and begging for negotiations with Trump.

  This is the counter Communist hegemony momentum that Trump will bring to his April 2026 summit with Xi, whose Party-military-intelligence apparatus must be furiously generating lessons to be drawn from Trump’s capture of Maduro and the United States-Israel war against Iran.

  But there are also lessons for Taiwan as the government of President William Lai Ching-te (賴清德) seeks to prepare Taiwan to deter an invasion by China, and struggles with the opposition Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) to advance a desperately needed US$42 billion military budget.

  DECAPITATION IS NOT THE END

  Maduro and his wife get to live and Venezuela gets to start a new era, but Khamenei and 50+ of Iran’s top leaders, not so much. But the Islamic terror regime has survived two weeks of US and Israeli bombing, demonstrating to Taiwan the advantages of distributed government authority, a well-armed police and the requirement for a very large armed militia.

  The CCP and its People’s Liberation Army (PLA) are also deeply focused on decapitating the elected/legitimate government of Taiwan, and since 2014 they’ve used a full-scale reproduction of the Taipei presidential compound to practice their own decapitation operations.

  But the main Iran lesson for Beijing is that airpower and decapitation will not produce victory if the Taiwan government survives. Taipei likewise should have no illusions — a PLA victory requires an invasion — with or without invitation.

  As such, Taipei has long had warning to prepare for securing the President and Vice President while under surprise attack, and to prepare for extensive continuity of government as a means of defense.

  This should include a new challenge to the CCP’s “One China Principle” by convincing friendly governments that still bow to China’s dictat but oppose a PLA invasion; to tell China upon a PLA attack they are prepared to formally recognize Taiwan and, if necessary, host Taiwan government-in-exile representatives.

  And at long last, Taiwan must begin the training and arming of a militia force in the millions equipped with sniper rifles and cheap anti-air/armor weapons to give Taiwan’s defense far greater depth.

  But as the CCP/PLA plans to assassinate/capture Taiwan’s legitimate elected leaders, it makes sense, as a deterrent, for Taiwan to build or purchase its own “decapitation” capabilities such as boosted deep-penetrating hypersonic warhead-armed missiles to attack the CCP’s new massive “global hegemony command center” being built near Beijing.

  NECESSITY OF OFFENSIVE CHEAP MASS

  The first week of Iran’s missile-terror campaign that started on February 28 saw ballistic missile launches fall from 350 to 35 by March 6, while Iran’s barrage cheap one-way loitering drone strikes started at 800, falling to an average of 186 for March 3-6 — but had the effect of taking the war to 12 countries and increasing political pressures against Israel and the US.

  China spent decades helping Iran to design its drone fleet and has supplied critical guidance and engine systems components while also — according to unofficial sources — integrating the PLA’s space surveillance and navigation satellite architecture to guide Iran’s ballistic missile and drone strikes.

  For its own part, the PLA has perhaps the world’s largest drone and unmanned weapons development sector, and the PLA is close to, if not ready, to deploy joint air, sea, and ground unmanned formations to precede and assist manned invasion forces.

  So it’s imperative that Taiwan follow through on initiatives to begin co-production of cheap, autonomously guided, and long range loitering munitions like the US Anduril 500km range Baracuda-500, and to consider coproduction of the long-range Anduril Copperhead autonomously guided torpedo.

  A very large number must be built as quickly as possible so enough survive the initial PLA air-missile assault and remain able to sink the PLA invasion fleet, be it hundreds of PLA Navy (PLAN) militia roll-on-roll-off barges or 10,000 PLAN militia fishing ships.

  With enough long-range loitering attack drones, Taiwan can also plaster PLA invasion forces gathering along the coasts of Fujian and Guangdong provinces. But the KMT’s latest defense budget initiative announced on March 5 delays the funding of such “private sector” sourced weapons.

  URGENCY OF ANTI-DRONES

  As long demonstrated by the brutal Russia-Ukraine drone war, the Iran War affirms the urgent requirement for defenses against waves of long-range cheap loitering munitions — which China has helped Iran accumulate, and of which China is capable of amassing hundreds of thousands before a Taiwan War.

  Ukraine markets cheap US$2,000 fast drone interceptors capable of taking out US$20,000 Shahed strike drones, and Taiwan’s agile drone sector is capable of becoming a regional source of similar drone interceptors.

  In addition, Washington should consider the transfer of new “unlimited magazine” laser and high power microwave anti-drone systems — especially to protect Taiwan’s retaliatory missile forces.

  NECESSITY OF INTEGRATING WITH ALLIES

  Iran’s regime is now close to collapse because its Chinese and Russian partners were willing to watch it die without offering sufficient overt support. In Venezuela, extensive Cuban military-political support was unable to prevent Maduro’s capture in the face of US electro-cyber superiority.

  Most US-led military actions since World War II have succeeded largely because of allied assent and cooperation; in Iran this is specifically due to cooperation with Israel.

  The Trump administration’s enthusiasm for promoting deeper joint military cooperation between Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and Australia should also include encouragement of their cooperation with Taiwan — especially banking on Japan’s increasing cooperation with the Philippines and newfound vocal support for Taiwan.

  In addition, the US should promote Taiwan’s strategic cooperation with Israel, a leader in anti-missile and unmanned technology, electronic warfare, the weaponizing of the enemy’s electronic infrastructure, and the placement of special operators who can wreak havoc in the enemy’s back yard.

  NECESSITY OF THEATER NUCLEAR WEAPONS

  The Iran war is being fought in large part to finally end Iran’s China-enabled nuclear weapons program. China’s longstanding nuclear and missile assistance to North Korea has not made Pyongyang safe, but does raise the cost for Washington to conduct kinetic counter-proliferation.

  Furthermore, the theater nuclear forces of China, Russia and North Korea are now vastly superior to Washington’s, which deploys only some new W76 small warheads on Trident submarine-launched ballistic missiles.

  Open murmurs in South Korea and Japan for their own nuclear weapons are to be expected, and if China and Russia sustain their opposition to real nuclear arms control, may also have to be encouraged.

  It is long overdue for Washington to develop a variety of theater nuclear weapons, from already planned nuclear Tomahawk cruise missiles to new nuclear armed intermediate and medium range ballistic missiles. And a revival of tactical nuclear artillery; as in the late 1950s, a few score of nuclear artillery shells in Taiwan would suspend CCP invasion plans.

  For over a decade American presidents, including Trump, and other western leaders have likely endured escalating lectures from Xi about why they must support/not oppose Taiwan’s “unification” with China.

  Xi likely never describes China’s desire for “unification” as his intent to commit the horrific bloody death of a democracy, which will then be used by the CCP to justify war against any other democracy that opposes the CCP’s battle for global hegemony — starting with Japan and the Philippines.

  Instead of just enduring Xi’s Taiwan lecture in order to get to the next topic, perhaps it is important to begin a new phase of Taiwan discussions by explaining to Xi how living in peace with a free Taiwan is in the CCP’s best interest.

  If China invades and subjugates Taiwan, the CCP will be seen as an immediate threat to all other democracies. They will have no choice but to combine in an anti-CCP alliance which could lead the CCP’s leadership to suffer the same fate as either Maduro or Khamenei.

  Richard D. Fisher, Jr. is a senior fellow with the International Assessment and Strategy Center.
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