Minister of Health and Welfare Chen Shih-chung’s (陳時中) introduction of “regression calibration” — backlogging — of local COVID-19 cases has caused a lively public debate. Politicians and supporters from both the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the opposition parties have engaged in a never-ending argument over the concept in the media.
Such correction of data is a global practice, and to argue over the issue is in no way beneficial to pandemic prevention. The virus knows no borders, nor does it pick one ethnic group or political party over another — we are all in the same boat, so if we are to defeat the virus, we must work together. Every Taiwanese should put political affiliation aside and focus their attention and social debate on important, practical matters.
At a global level, the fight against the virus seems to be moving slowly toward an epilogue. Statistics showed that 56.5 percent of the Israeli population had been fully inoculated, while the numbers for the US and the UK were 39.3 percent and 33.1 percent respectively. These three countries are now leading the move toward the normalization of their economies.
The situation in these countries tells us that, in the end, the pandemic would require universal inoculation, and if Taiwan wants to fully restore its economic and trade relations with the outside world, it must inoculate the whole population.
The government and the opposition parties are deadlocked in their argument over the vaccine issue, but with the US having inoculated 40 percent of its population, its next step would be to turn its focus away from obtaining vaccines for its citizens to allowing vaccine manufacturers to export COVID-19 jabs to make a profit. This should make it easier for Taiwan to get its hands on the vaccines it needs; the real problem will start when the vaccines arrive in Taiwan.
The experience of other nations points to serious logistical and political problems at the initial stages of distribution. Now is the time to make preparations for the vaccine’s cold chain transportation, storage and distribution, as well as inoculation stations to ensure an efficient process.
Based on the number of hospitals and clinics in the nation, administering about 40,000 inoculations would be the maximum daily limit. With a population of 23 million, it would take two to three months for everyone to get their first jab. The same amount of time would be required for a second shot. Having to wait for another four to six months for the two shots after having had to wait so long for the vaccines to arrive in the first place would be a source of serious psychological strain for all Taiwanese.
When vaccines would arrive would depend on the global situation, but that should not prevent preparations for the inoculation process to get started now. One way of going about this would be to use our national elections as a reference.
During the presidential election last year, for example, more than 14 million people voted in a single day. This is good evidence that this would be an effective approach: The authorities could turn every place that was used as a voting station during the election into an inoculation station. When the time comes, doctors and nurses could be called upon to assist at the stations, where people could go to get their shots just as they went there to vote.
Inoculations pose more problems than voting, so disease prevention and isolation measures would be required, as well as an observation period after the inoculation. Still, a preliminary estimate would be that several million Taiwanese could get their shot in one day, and if planning is rigorous, it should be possible to give the majority their first shot within a week.
The number of infected Taiwanese remains far lower than in other countries. With rapid completion of vaccination and a rapid reopening of society, the Taiwanese economy would be able to bounce back quickly and give Taiwan an edge as the public returns to normality. That would make Taiwan the overall global pandemic prevention champion, from beginning to end, and it would also win the government public approval.
Tommy Lin is president of the Formosa Republican Association.
Translated by Perry Svensson
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