As it turns out, Europe, the US and the Middle East in the post-Iraq world are confronting the resurgence of al-Qaeda terrorism, while much of Asia is busy dealing with the issues of North Korea's nuclear weapons program and the SARS epidemic. It appears the road to Iraqi democracy will be long and bumpy and it remains to be seen how democracy is able to take root in the Middle East. The post-Iraq conflict era is still full of uncertainties.
However, there has been something positive in Asia as a result of the Iraqi war. Right after the end of the military conflict, US-China-North Korea multilateral talks were held. The realization of these talks -- in which North Korea agreed to participate despite its repeated demands for bilateral negotiations with the US, and China played host despite its claims that it has no influence on Pyongyang -- did suggest that the result of the Iraqi conflict has played a role in both Pyongyang's and Beijing's decisions. South Korean-US relations also seem to be back on track after a successful summit last month between US President George W. Bush and President Roh Moo-hyun.
Though there is no evidence indicating that US-South Korea relations were directly affected by the Iraqi war, the conclusion of this conflict did afford the Bush administration time to pay more attention to Korean Peninsula affairs. Thus it has helped to prepare a better environment to manage the US-South Korean alliance. Furthermore, the US-Japan alliance has also been strengthened in the wake of the war.
To sum up, North Korea seems to be more isolated, China has been persuaded to side with the US, the South Korean-US alliance started to swing back and the US-Japan alliance has been strength-ened. The US' position in North-east Asia has been solidified even more.
North Korea's informal confession during the May talks that it possessed nuclear weapon only confirms the pre-1994 US intelligence estimate. But it has resulted in several subtle changes in the security architecture of the Korean Peninsula. It has created a crack in China-North Korea relations. Pyongyang's announcement was a public slap in the face to China as it directly contradicted Beijing's repeated appeals for a non-nuclear Korean Peninsula. It also puts China in the international spotlight to see how it backs up its assertion.
This "nuclear confession" and the deterioration of China-North Korean relations have led South Korea's leadership to rethink their approach to North Korea and the US. Interestingly, Pyong-yang's nuclear revelation did not really deter the US' hard-line approach, but has resulted in an international environment more inclined to contain Pyongyang than before.
There are two issues of concern for Taiwan in these Korean affairs: the fearthat its interests will be traded in order to obtain China's cooperation and the readjustment of US forward deployment in the region. Since China seems to be under pressure itself, rather than be in a position to be asked to reduce the tensions over North Korea's nuclear weapons, Taiwan's fears of being hurt somehow by US efforts to obtain Chinese cooperation have been significantly reduced.
Taiwan's reasons for its other substantial concerns are as follows: The US-Japan alliance and US forward basing in Japan is critically important to this nation's security. Thus Taipei will be very sensitive about the direction the US-South Korean relations because it might affect the US-Japan alliance and the US deployment in Japan. This concern has receded somewhat after the successful Roh-Bush summit in May and Roh's affirmation of the presence of US forces in the South.
So far, there is no reason for Taiwan to worry about the Northeast Asia security environment, although we need to maintain a watchful eye. It is very important for Taiwan to have a stable and predictable Northeast Asia as its people are engaged in an all out battle against SARS.
However, the above discussion linking Taiwan and the security of the Korean Peninsula bears one distinct feature: the security situation of Taiwan and South Korea is mentioned not by direct linkage but via a third party -- whether it is China or the US-Japan alliance. Both Taiwan and the Korean Peninsula sit in a location where the interests of the continental powers (China and Russia) and maritime powers (US and Japan) overlap and crises in both areas will have global security, political and economic consequences.
There should be frequent and common security dialogues between Taiwan and South Korea since both share similar security concerns and their democracies developed at relatively the same time. Therefore, the sorry state of Taiwan-South Korea relations is all the more astonishing. There are many reasons to account for the lack of a common security language, but this issue needs to be addressed in order to establish a balanced, healthy and sustainable relationship between Taipei and Seoul.
Another important issue Taiwan should address by taking advantage of this favorable environment is how to implement the political, security and social reform it desperately needs. The SARS epidemic has exposed many governmental weakness, including the national security infrastructure, contingency planning and crisis management. The SARS crisis has presented us with a golden opportunity for reform.
The Asia-Pacific region is fast moving from a post-Iraqi conflict period into an era of containing North Korea's nuclear brinksmanship and battling SARS. It depends on how the leaders can transform challenges into opportunities, thus strengthening Taiwan's position in the region and the world. The time for action is now.
Lai I-chung is director of foreign policy studies at the Taiwan Thinktank.
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