Admiral Timothy Keating, the commander of the US Pacific Command, said in Washington that “it is very, very, very unlikely that there will be conflict across the Strait” in light of the current cross-strait situation. This explains why there have been no significant arms sales from the US to Taiwan recently. The reconciliation between Taiwan and China after President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) government came to power has not only affected the relations between Taiwan, China and the US, but has also made the strategic intentions of Beijing and Washington much clearer.
The possibility of a war between China and the US in the short-term because of the “Taiwan factor” has dropped dramatically. Washington will have time to rest and recuperate, and Beijing will be able to concentrate on its various internal conflicts, laying a foundation for its rise as the new hegemony. Possible points of conflict between the US and China are more likely to be issues such as international trade, human rights and global responsibility.
First, the easing of tensions between Taiwan and China also helps relieve tensions between the US and China, allowing Washington to employ a flexible China policy in the face of Beijing’s “peaceful rise.” After the normalization of China-US relations in 1979, to maintain both the trust of its allies and its dominant role in Southeast Asia, the US had been forced on several occasions to interfere with China’s attempt to claim Taiwan by force. Still, each US administration has tried hard to avoid a war, as such military interference would affect the economic and financial relations between the US and China. The US also tried to avoid triggering another “cold war” by using military force to defend Taiwan.
Therefore, the recent reconciliation between China and Taiwan is beneficial to the US and also highlights the significance that business will play in relations between China and the US.
Second, the US’ leading international position has been challenged around the world in recent years. China’s participation will be indispensable in the US’ attempts at using multilateral adjustment to reform the balance of international power. The US is skilled at using various international systems and Beijing will be a force in helping Washington revive itself.
For example, the US was able to eventually resolve the North Korean nuclear crisis thanks to China. Beijing also assisted in the US handling of Sudan’s Darfur conflict. It would thus be a great loss for the US to sacrifice its chances of further cooperation with China just for Taiwan. In essence, cross-strait reconciliation will lower the US’ political and military costs for stabilizing today’s global situation.
Third, if China changes the “status quo” across the Taiwan Strait by using military force, it is likely to destroy any opportunity it has of rising in power. But if China handles the issue peacefully, it will build a new path for itself to become a hegemony. The warming relations between Taiwan and China eliminate the possibility of a direct conflict between China and the US. As a result, China does not have to lose the results of its reform over the past three decades and can improve its international image in the process. All China has to do is wait for a suitable time to replace the US as the world’s leading superpower.
Taiwan’s attempt to challenge international consensus has been ended through cooperation between the US and China. The past decade proved Taiwan to be a troublemaker that wished to gain from a possible conflict between China and the US. Hence, both Beijing and Washington had to keep Taiwan in check on several occasions, as it walked into a dead-end alley and was marginalized internationally. Taiwan’s provocations actually supplied Beijing and Washington with a reason to communicate, as they had to clarify their strategic intentions.
Taiwan will have a hard time getting rid of its reputation as a “troublemaker” without the support of the US and China. Today, Beijing and Washington are the biggest winners from the reconciliation between China and Taiwan.
The US and China may come up with creative ways of encouraging Taiwan to stick to its policy of reconciling with Beijing. However, after business conflicts become a core issue between Beijing and Washington, the complex business relations that exist between Taiwan, China and the US will prove to be a hard test of the Taiwanese government’s wisdom.
Chen Hsin-chih is an associate professor of political science at National Cheng Kung University.
TRANSLATED BY EDDY CHANG
When US budget carrier Southwest Airlines last week announced a new partnership with China Airlines, Southwest’s social media were filled with comments from travelers excited by the new opportunity to visit China. Of course, China Airlines is not based in China, but in Taiwan, and the new partnership connects Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport with 30 cities across the US. At a time when China is increasing efforts on all fronts to falsely label Taiwan as “China” in all arenas, Taiwan does itself no favors by having its flagship carrier named China Airlines. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs is eager to jump at
The muting of the line “I’m from Taiwan” (我台灣來欸), sung in Hoklo (commonly known as Taiwanese), during a performance at the closing ceremony of the World Masters Games in New Taipei City on May 31 has sparked a public outcry. The lyric from the well-known song All Eyes on Me (世界都看見) — originally written and performed by Taiwanese hip-hop group Nine One One (玖壹壹) — was muted twice, while the subtitles on the screen showed an alternate line, “we come here together” (阮作伙來欸), which was not sung. The song, performed at the ceremony by a cheerleading group, was the theme
Secretary of State Marco Rubio raised eyebrows recently when he declared the era of American unipolarity over. He described America’s unrivaled dominance of the international system as an anomaly that was created by the collapse of the Soviet Union at the end of the Cold War. Now, he observed, the United States was returning to a more multipolar world where there are great powers in different parts of the planet. He pointed to China and Russia, as well as “rogue states like Iran and North Korea” as examples of countries the United States must contend with. This all begs the question:
In China, competition is fierce, and in many cases suppliers do not get paid on time. Rather than improving, the situation appears to be deteriorating. BYD Co, the world’s largest electric vehicle manufacturer by production volume, has gained notoriety for its harsh treatment of suppliers, raising concerns about the long-term sustainability. The case also highlights the decline of China’s business environment, and the growing risk of a cascading wave of corporate failures. BYD generally does not follow China’s Negotiable Instruments Law when settling payments with suppliers. Instead the company has created its own proprietary supply chain finance system called the “D-chain,” through which
RSS