It is jarring how differently Taiwan’s politics is portrayed in the international press compared to the local Chinese-language press. Viewed from abroad, Taiwan is seen as a geopolitical hotspot, or “The Most Dangerous Place on Earth,” as the Economist once blazoned across their cover.
Meanwhile, tasked with facing down those existential threats, Taiwan’s leaders are dying their hair pink.
These include former president Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim (蕭美琴) and Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Chi-mai (陳其邁), among others. They are demonstrating what big fans they are of South Korean K-pop sensations Blackpink ahead of their concerts this weekend in Kaohsiung.
Photo taken from Chen Chi-mai’s Facebook page
This is not to suggest that these leaders are not taking their responsibilities seriously, but rather that there is a role for fun and silliness in a democracy, even when the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is conducting daily rehearsals for an invasion. This would never happen in China, Russia, North Korea or Iran. Dictators have no sense of fun.
As humorous and unprecedented as leaders dying their hair pink is, this year has been anything but normal politically. “Unprecedented” is the word of the year.
Taiwan’s politics feels unsettled, uneasy and uncertain. Tectonic plates are shifting geopolitically, economically, socially and domestic politics are all on fault lines.
The next big challenge is next year’s local elections.
KMT RIDING HIGH, BUT ON ROUGH TERRAIN
Today’s Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) chair election will reveal a lot about the state of the party.
The KMT has a renewed spring in their step; more vital and enthusiastic than in well over a decade. They are riding high in the polls and defeated the recalls against their lawmakers, but like the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) appear to be sweeping their own disastrous defeats in that process under the rug and ignoring much-needed self-reflection.
After downplaying their brand and logo for years, they are proudly putting them front and center. For the six KMT candidates, the “Chinese” in the Chinese Nationalist Party is once again a source of pride after years of calls to drop it from their name.
The new KMT chair will be a partial indication of how deep that sentiment runs.
A win by former Taipei Mayor Hau Lung-bin (郝龍斌) would suggest that conservatism and caution are still factors. The major institutional players in the party back him, and he would likely be a more traditional, albeit deeper blue (pro-KMT ideology) than some of his recent predecessors.
The enthusiasm and popular support for upstart candidate Cheng Li-wun (鄭麗文) suggest a desire to be more assertive in promoting the KMT’s core “one China” ideology with pride, enthusiasm and energy.
Hau is likely a more prudent choice, while Cheng is a riskier bet that could win big, or cause considerable damage.
Cheng has been more blunt that in negotiations with their allies, the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), over which party’s candidates to run in which races next year, she will assert the KMT’s greater power and would treat the TPP as a junior partner, including in choosing the mayoral candidate for New Taipei City, which TPP Chairman Huang Kuo-chang (黃國昌) has already announced he plans to run for. She could drive a harder bargain that benefits the KMT, or she could risk their alliance.
However, one big wrinkle could appear if Hau loses by a small margin. He might challenge the election result based on his allegations of Chinese interference (see this column, “Alleged CCP interference in KMT chair race ignites debate,” Oct. 15, page 12). That could throw the party into chaos.
The new chair is slated to take office on Nov. 1 and will have to immediately get to work on determining how party primaries are going to work for the elections next year. In 2022, KMT Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫) directly nominated 21 of the 22 candidates. His picks were successful, but he upset a lot of locally powerful figures, and neither Hau nor Cheng plan to repeat that.
DPP STRIKES EARLY
After two straight landslide local election defeats in 2018 and 2022, the DPP is getting to work early on their primaries.
President and DPP party Chairman William Lai (賴清德) deals with the party’s factions differently from his predecessor, packing his government with figures from his New Tide faction.
As a counter-balance, he meets with factional leaders regularly, and the nominating committee for next year’s elections is carefully balanced between them. The committee’s first recommendations came out on Oct. 7 for Chiayi City and Taitung County, followed by announcements on Taichung City and Yilan County on Oct. — all of whom are expected to be officially ratified on the 22nd.
Three brutally competitive races — Kaohsiung, Tainan and Chiayi County — will go to an internal party poll primary between Jan. 12 and 17. The choice of “internal party polling” is interesting and harkens back to an earlier era, though the details are vague on whether this is for party members or supporters in general.
In 2022, Tsai — like Eric Chu — directly picked the candidates, but the more common procedure in recent times has been public opinion polling to determine the candidate most likely to win, not the most popular inside the party. This could lead to conflict, and it will be interesting to see which method they pick to hold primaries in other contested areas like Changhua and New Taipei City.
Starting so early also comes with some risks, especially in such an unsettled political environment. A candidate that seems good now might be the wrong candidate if the political ground shifts. Choosing a candidate early allows for maximum time to campaign, but also more opportunities for them to screw up.
TPP DILEMMAS
The TPP is largely in a holding pattern. It will be hard for them to move until the new KMT chair is in place. Additionally, their legal troubles keep mounting.
Party founder Ko Wen-je’s (柯文哲) ongoing corruption trial is ramping up, and the verdict could be coming soon.
Meanwhile, TPP Chairman Huang’s problems are piling up, with fresh allegations appearing regularly, including that he may not only have created a political surveillance team (see “Huang Kuo-chang’s alleged ‘puppy squad’ hustle,” Oct. 8, page 12) but that he may have also recruited hackers. These allegations are far from proven, but are clearly distracting.
Huang has suggested that he will run in New Taipei City, and floated the TPP running in Changhua and Yilan. In all three, KMT incumbents will be term-limited out. Huang has indicated he is open to negotiation on all of these, however.
Working with the KMT will be easier on the city and council level, as they are multi-member districts. The small TPP is on a recruitment drive to address its biggest weakness, a lack of candidates.
The obvious option, poaching existing councilors from other parties, is largely off the table. Most would likely come from the KMT, but that party is riding high, making defections less likely, and stealing people from them would sour relations with their senior partner.
That leaves having to poach independents or to run with inexperienced and unproven candidates.
Donovan’s Deep Dives is a regular column by Courtney Donovan Smith (石東文) who writes in-depth analysis on everything about Taiwan’s political scene and geopolitics. Donovan is also the central Taiwan correspondent at ICRT FM100 Radio News, co-publisher of Compass Magazine, co-founder Taiwan Report (report.tw) and former chair of the Taichung American Chamber of Commerce. Follow him on X: @donovan_smith.
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