US and Taiwan military officials have warned that the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) could implement a blockade within “a matter of hours” and need only “minimal conversion time” prior to an attack on Taiwan, a report released on Tuesday by the US Senate’s China Economic and Security Review Commission said.
“While there is no indication that China is planning an imminent attack, the United States and its allies and partners can no longer assume that a Taiwan contingency is a distant possibility for which they would have ample time to prepare,” it said.
The commission made the comments in its annual report to the US Congress, a 700-page document with a 49-page chapter dedicated to Taiwan.
Photo: CNA
“Beijing has continued to escalate military pressure on Taiwan both through near-daily military operations near Taiwan and large-scale exercises designed to rehearse invasion and blockade scenarios,” it said.
China’s activity in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea is rapidly increasing, while Beijing ramps up military capabilities and develops new weapons such as self-propelled landing barges, the world’s largest amphibious ship and hypersonic missiles that could target US deployed forces, commission Vice Chair Randy Schriver said in a briefing.
The PLA escalated military pressure against Taiwan by 300 percent last year, the report said, citing testimony by US Indo-Pacific Commander Admiral Samuel Paparo.
“As of Oct. 10, 2025, there have been 3,056 PLA incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ [air defense identification zone] this year, up 33 percent from 2,301 incursions during the same period in 2024,” the report said.
The large-scale, unannounced exercises are designed to normalize military activity near Taiwan, “making it more difficult to detect if China is preparing for an actual blockade or invasion and potentially dramatically reducing the time Taiwan and the United States would have to respond,” it said.
Beijing continues to downplay the possibility of a Taiwan invasion in English-language statements, while domestically, Chinese-language propaganda suggests China might take action in the near future, it said.
The report closely aligns with the Ministry of National Defense’s August report that identified 2049 as a potential flash point, as it would be Beijing’s date for “the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.”
Analysts have pointed to three dates for a potential Chinese invasion: 2027, 2035 and 2049, which are based on public reports about US intelligence assessments and Beijing’s own statements about Taiwan and the PLA’s military modernization ambitions, the US report said.
“Beijing has never publicly acknowledged a specific deadline for taking Taiwan,” it said.
Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) denied having plans to invade Taiwan in 2027 or 2035 during a meeting with then-US president Joe Biden in 2023, the report said.
However, Xi has on two occasions said that the Taiwan issue “should not be passed down to generation after generation,” which has been interpreted by some to indicate his intent to “solve” the issue during his lifetime, it added.
The 2027 date is reportedly Beijing’s deadline to be prepared to invade Taiwan, to accelerate the development of the PLA’s capabilities, while also marking the 100th anniversary of the founding of the PLA, it said.
The 2035 date is China’s deadline for completing military modernization and constructing a high-speed railway to Taiwan, it said.
Beijing has clearly indicated its goal to “unify” with Taiwan prior to the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 2049, and Xi has also said that “solving the Taiwan question” is an “inevitable requirement for realizing the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation,” the report said.
Meanwhile, China has continued to expand its use of cyberattacks and information warfare targeting Taiwan’s government and society, it said.
The campaigns seek to weaken Taiwanese society’s will to resist and sow doubt in the US’ commitment to Taiwan, using economic coercion, espionage, disruption to undersea cables and cognitive warfare, including social media propaganda, it said.
China has also ramped up smear campaigns and attempts to intimidate “Taiwanese separatists,” it said, referencing a planned attack on Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim (蕭美琴) last year.
However, “Taiwan’s overall economic picture remains strong with continued growth,” despite punitive trade measures, the report said.
Beijing is unwilling to target Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (台積電) or the information communication technology supply chain, demonstrating its “limitations in taking actions that would truly damage Taiwan’s economy,” it said.
Taiwan has also stepped up self-defense capabilities through increased military spending, defense procurements, US training collaboration and President William Lai’s (賴清德) “whole-of-society resilience” initiative, it said.
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