Beyond artificial intelligence (AI), another transformative technology that could reshape industries and reorder geopolitical power is finally moving out of the lab: quantum.
The UN dubbed 2025 the International Year of Quantum Science and Technology. It has been marked by a flurry of announcements — and a mountain of hype — around a mind-boggling field of science long dismissed as perpetually a decade away from usefulness. That is how people talked about AI, too, before ChatGPT spurred the global arms race and investor euphoria.
Quantum technology taps the odd mechanics of quantum physics — how particles behave at the atomic level — to create computers, sensors and communications gear that are exponentially more powerful than today’s. Classic computers process information in bits, which can be represented as “0” or “1.” Quantum computers use qubits, which can exist in a superposition of both states at the same time. That allows them to evaluate a vast number of possibilities at extraordinary speed.
Quantum technology could transform sectors from medicine to finance. McKinsey & Co estimates it could generate up to US$97 billion in revenue worldwide by 2035. Bain & Co, looking at the broader ecosystem, says it could unlock as much as US$250 billion in market value.
AI soaked up most of the attention this year. If you were not watching closely, here is what you might have missed in quantum.
The year began with something rare in the field: a viral moment. In February, Microsoft Corp unveiled its first quantum computing chip, touting a path to fitting a million qubits on a single processer. A sleek YouTube video broke down jargon usually associated with the science and culminated with the statement: “We’re at the cusp of a quantum age.” Researchers later questioned if the PR hype machine was going too far, perhaps overselling the underlying science.
Microsoft’s splashy announcement followed Google’s late-2024 unveiling of its own quantum-computing chip, dubbed Willow. And that was quickly followed by Amazon.com Inc’s cloud unit teasing its Ocelot chip, which it claimed can reduce the costs of quantum error correction by up to 90 percent compared with previous approaches. Reducing error rates is one of the biggest challenges given how sensitive qubits are to even the smallest changes in their environment.
By June, IBM, a pioneer in the sector, unveiled an impressively detailed framework for launching a fault-tolerant — that is, less error-prone — quantum computer by 2029. And in October, Google said that it ran a “verifiable” algorithm on its Willow chip — meaning one that can be repeated on another quantum system. The algorithm, dubbed “Quantum Echoes,” ran 13,000 times faster on Willow than what is possible on the world’s most powerful supercomputer, according to Google.
The sheer pace of quantum activity from Big Tech and startups last year would have been unthinkable even five years ago. Investors are taking notice and capital is flowing. The momentum is unlikely to ebb this year.
The US still leads, but China is rapidly narrowing the gap, looking at a surge of patent filings — the same kind of data that analysts used to anticipate the nation’s leadership in other sectors, such as electric vehicles. John Martinis, one of this year’s winners of the Nobel Prize in Physics, warned earlier this month that China is mere “nanoseconds” behind.
A new geopolitical race is under way. Beijing has earmarked US$15.3 billion in public funds for quantum computing, more than eight times the US$1.9 billion the US has pledged. The West was largely caught flat-footed by China’s rapid advances in AI. It cannot afford a repeat. The stakes in quantum are arguably higher, but there is no excuse to be surprised by new breakthroughs coming from there.
For all the excitement, the limits of today’s machines are just as real.
At the start of the year, Nvidia Corp chief executive officer Jensen Huang (黃仁勳) said that we are about 15 to 30 years away from quantum computers being very useful. He later said he was wrong, and by June said the tech could be applied to “solve some interesting problems in the coming years.”
He is not alone in hedging. Amazon Web Service’s head of quantum hardware had a similar 15 to 30-year timeline in August. Even the most aggressive projections inside the industry put meaningful utility at least five years away. The spread in forecasts underscores how hard it remains to stabilize qubits and suppress error rates at scale.
That uncertainty is precisely why business leaders should pay attention.
One of the most immediate risks stems from one of quantum’s most famous algorithms. In theory, Shor’s algorithm could allow a sufficiently powerful quantum computer to break much of the commonly-used encryption by banks and governments on today’s Internet. New “post-quantum” cryptographic standards are being developed, but the question of existing systems becoming obsolete is increasingly a “when,” not an “if.”
A Bain survey last year found that 73 percent of IT security professionals expect this to be a “material risk” within the next five years, and 32 percent within the next three years. Yet only 9 percent said they have a plan to address it.
This disconnect is the real story of quantum going into 2026. Timelines have compressed, money is pouring in and a global race is under way — but preparedness is lagging. Now is the time for companies and policymakers to build new quantum strategies and talent pipelines, beginning with a serious plan for post-quantum security. The hype is getting louder; the quiet story is how unprepared we are.
Catherine Thorbecke is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Asia tech. Previously she was a tech reporter at CNN and ABC News. This column reflects the personal views of the author and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
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