US President Donald Trump’s policy preferences and orientations during the first eight months of his second term have created an unprecedented level of uncertainty about the US’ commitment to promoting a free and open Indo-Pacific region.
Except for some ceremonial meetings, interactions, and visits between the Trump administration and like-minded countries in the Indo-Pacific region, the US has so far not produced a detailed plan of action to institutionalize the conception of the Indo-Pacific as a free and open region. The focus of the Trump administration is largely devoted to realizing the idea of “America first” at the cost of sustaining the efforts to promote the liberal order in the Indo-Pacific.
One major objective of the US Indo-Pacific strategy is to work with democratic countries to promote security in the region. Instead of holding dialogues with its allies and partners to explore ways to enhance the security architecture in the region, Trump has focused on pressuring them to share the burden of maintaining security. Without the US’ unwavering support, the vulnerability of most of the countries of the region would further increase vis-a-vis China.
The second objective is to enhance free, fair and transparent trade and commerce in the Indo-Pacific. The US has treated its friends and foes alike. While Trump has extended an olive branch to China by providing Beijing with more time to develop a trade deal, he has imposed exorbitant tariffs on its friends. Instead of forcing China to comply with the liberal global trade regime, US policies have negatively impacted the trade prospects of its allies and partners.
Third is strengthening governance in the Indo-Pacific. However, in the name of “America first,” Trump has withdrawn the US from several global organizations, institutions and agreements. This has weakened efforts to prevent autocratic regimes from undermining the significance of liberal global institutions. This would certainly encourage China to fill the vacuum at the international level created by the US. Trump’s “America first” has also made US-led groupings, such as AUKUS and the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), uncertain about what it happening.
The promotion of democracy, sovereignty and freedom is an integral part of the US’ Indo-Pacific strategy. The role of the US Agency for International Development (USAID) was significant in achieving these objectives. US soft power remains major force behind the liberal international order, but Trump feels that USAID and other similar activities are a waste of US resources.
Trump’s foreign, security and economic policies have alarmed US allies and partners, including India. While the imposition of 50 percent tariffs by the US has put India-US relations under stress, Trump’s reported reluctance to attend the Quad summit to be held in New Delhi later this year has underscored the tensions between India and the US.
India’s unease also stems from the fact that New Delhi had, in the recent past, intensified efforts to work with Washington to counter Beijing by conducting joint military exercises with Quad member countries in the South China Sea and elsewhere. To minimize its vulnerability in the changing geopolitical, security and economic environment of the Indo-Pacific, India has moved to thaw its ties with China and accelerate cooperation with Russia. In this context, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to India later this year also assumes significance.
The Trump administration’s new bonhomie toward Pakistan, coupled with the possible China-Russia-Pakistan nexus, would compound India’s security and other national security interests in South Asia and beyond.
There is also a strong realization among many Indian strategic experts that to expect a positive change in China’s policy toward India would be unwise. Therefore, it would be prudent for New Delhi to use its diplomatic channels effectively to quell trade tensions with the US. That both sides’ diplomats are engaged to prevent bilateral ties from further damage is visible from Trump’s latest comment on India, saying that the India-US relationship remained “special” and that he shared strong bonds with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
However, since Trump’s approach toward India has revived New Delhi’s Cold War experiences with Washington, the Modi government might exercise restraint in expanding ties with the US, especially in the security domain, impacting the overall security of the Indo-Pacific.
The Trump administration should realize that world leadership comes with responsibility. Only time will tell if the Trump administration could work with US allies and partners to achieve a free and open regional order in the Indo-Pacific.
Sumit Kumar is an assistant professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Delhi, and a former Ministry of Foreign Affairs visiting fellow at National Chengchi University.
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