Thu, Sep 11, 2025 page7

• Japan deserves far better leadership than this

  After weeks of speculation, Shigeru Ishiba is finally stepping down. Has the embattled ruling party learned its lesson?

  • By Gearoid Reidy / Bloomberg Opinion
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  Japan’s ruling bloc was desperate. Hammered by scandals and sinking ratings, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) gambled on a new leader less than a year ago. They chose Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, and to quote what Michael Caine’s Alfred Pennyworth said of the Joker in 2008’s The Dark Knight, in their desperation they turned to a man they did not fully understand.

  Ishiba, who after weeks of speculation announced his resignation on Sunday, is no Joker, but he would be remembered as something of a punchline — and his time in power one of tumult that has threatened to reduce the country’s international standing at a moment of global transformation.

  The prime minister was always an enigma, and got the job only because the kingmakers preferred him to the alternative, the arch-conservative Sanae Takaichi. However, few could have foreseen that a man who spent his entire career seeking leadership would have so flimsy a plan that he would lose three elections in less than a year. Right-wingers have deserted the party, and his initial refusal to step down threatened to split it in two.

  

  Illustration: Mountain People

  His main economic idea to fight inflation was an unwanted US$135 one-time handout that never materialized. He has been bogged down dealing with the threat of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs. The deal Ishiba agreed to is unspectacular, and unbefitting of Japan’s special relationship.

  While the country is mostly back where it was a year ago, the LDP is in a much weaker position. It has lost majorities in both houses of parliament. Ishiba so alienated its conservative wing that right-leaning voters’ abandonment should have been obvious. While the rise of the far-right in Japan has been hugely overstated, the next head must restore its center-right credibility.

  The question now is can the LDP rise to the challenge. A Kyodo poll released on Sunday, taken before the resignation was reported, showed that 83 percent believe the LDP’s very public reckoning with its defeat would not boost voters’ trust. Yet the party has come back before. In the early 2010s, some considered it to be a spent force before the then-unlikely figure of former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe re-emerged to unite it. Is there such a visionary now?

  Talk would be of the two obvious candidates, Takaichi and Japanese Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Shinjiro Koizumi. Takaichi is a likely front-runner, having narrowly lost to Ishiba last year. She would be Japan’s first female prime minister, and would certainly stem the problem of conservatives ditching the party. She would also get along well with Trump, and as the self-declared heir to Abenomics, the stock market would like her — but her expansive fiscal plans would likely fuel further rises in bond yields, at a time when long-term rates are at multi-decade highs.

  However, it is Koizumi who has had the more impressive year. He stepped in as agriculture minister during the historic rise in rice prices and quickly engineered a market reversal. Despite his inexperience, he has again played kingmaker: His meeting with Ishiba on Saturday was among the last the Japanese prime minister reportedly took before deciding to step down. An outside bet is also an option, with eyes on the likes of the more centrist conservative Japanese Representative Takayuki Kobayashi.

  However, before the who would come the question of how. The LDP might choose the quick option of polling lawmakers and regional heads, which could mean a new prime minister in days. Or it might opt for a “full-spec” election in which party members also join, which would take weeks. In either case, a new leader would then face a choice of whether to call a snap election and try to recover the majority in the lower house — or risk losing power entirely, ushering in a level of political instability unseen for decades.

  However it decides, the LDP must find a leader who has genuine popularity in and outside the party. Japan can, and indeed has, kept things ticking over during long periods of political drift; the bureaucracy has survived weaker prime ministers than Ishiba, though not many. However, now more than ever, the country requires vision. Its aging society, shrinking workforce and huge debt remain, but they are now joined by the strongest inflation in decades and a newfound worry over immigration. Add to that concerns that the US is abandoning its traditional role as security guarantor at a time when China and Russia are increasingly aggressive, and a strong leader is a must.

  No one knows this better than the electorate. The LDP might not deserve a better kind of leader, but the country certainly does.

  Gearoid Reidy is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Japan and the Koreas. He previously led the breaking news team in North Asia, and was the Tokyo deputy bureau chief. This column reflects the personal views of the author and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
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