Wed, Sep 10, 2025 page7

• China is using the Pacific islands to squeeze out Taiwan

  Beijing does not even have to show up to the Pacific Islands Forum to achieve its goals

  • By Karishma Vaswani / Bloomberg Opinion
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  China might not be attending a key Pacific islands gathering that started on Monday, but that is not stopping it from wielding influence to isolate Taiwan diplomatically.

  The annual Pacific Islands Forum, which runs until Friday in the Solomon Islands capital, Honiara, is typically a chance for the global community to engage on urgent issues the region faces, such as climate change, transnational crime, multiple health crises and tribal violence. Being dragged into a power play is a distraction.

  Solomon Islands Prime Minister Jeremiah Manele, Beijing’s closest security ally in the region, announced that all partners, including the US, China and Taiwan, would be excluded. He said the decision was made in the forum’s best interests. In reality, even though China would not attend officially, Beijing could continue its campaign to diminish Taiwan’s status.

  

  Illustration: Mountain People

  China has rejected allegations that it has had a role to play in who attends. This is not the first time partners have been excluded, but the decision highlights how the Taiwan issue is gradually splintering the group.

  Over the past few years, Beijing has made significant progress in getting Pacific island nations to switch their loyalties. From six diplomatic alliances in the region in 2019, Taiwan now only has three: the Marshall Islands, Palau and Tuvalu.

  The Pacific islands are strategically vital to the US’ security. They straddle key maritime trade routes and are situated in the significant second island chain. Rich in natural resources, the nations make up more than 6 percent of the UN, providing a meaningful bloc in multilateral decisions.

  Since 1989, countries from outside the region have attended the forum to help with development goals. In 1992, Taiwan was granted permission to be present. Only 11 nations and the Holy See recognize its status, so it was a rare opportunity for the democratic nation of 23 million people to be represented on the international stage. The forum has provided a platform for those who support it to — however quietly — challenge Beijing’s claim to the country.

  China is working overtime to exclude Taiwan from international organizations. It has also prevented it from joining the World Health Assembly, the decisionmaking body of the WHO, even though Taiwan was lauded for its COVID-19 pandemic response.

  Beijing’s use of economic leverage to convince nations to switch recognition to China has been successful. Nearly three-quarters of countries now support the position that Taiwan is part of China, a study conducted by the Sydney-based think tank Lowy Institute said. Sixty-two percent of UN member states have endorsed Beijing’s “one China principle,” which asserts that Taiwan is an inalienable part of the People’s Republic of China.

  Getting caught in the middle of this geopolitical minefield is costly. The Solomon Islands’ decision means the forum would not have the opportunity to discuss the region’s most urgent needs with the international community. The Leaders’ Summit allows the 18 member states and territories, including New Zealand and Australia, to hash out issues from the climate crisis to tuna treaty negotiations with the US.

  The exclusion of partners is a blow to one of the world’s most aid-dependent areas, where development assistance is a lifeline.

  The division over Taiwan and China also risks fracturing Pacific unity. Tuvaluan Prime Minister Feleti Teo openly threatened to withdraw from the summit in protest at the exclusions, calling them a distraction from tackling the urgent concerns unique to the nations, among them worrying levels of debt, malnutrition and high poverty rates.

  Pacific leaders have been clear: They want trade, investment and economic development. China is listening. Beijing has committed billions in infrastructure investments.

  That generosity is hard to ignore. As China moves to expand its trade and investment footprint, the US and its allies would have to up their game to counterbalance that influence. Many smaller states hesitate to oppose Beijing, worried about the economic repercussions.

  Australia — Washington’s key ally in the region — is stepping up. It is the largest donor in the region, followed by China, which has surpassed the US in the past few years. More investment would help, but also a reassurance that Pacific states would be supported in development and climate vulnerability goals with more than just elegant rhetoric.

  The hard work must also come from Pacific nations themselves. Their unity in the face of intensifying geopolitical rivalry is essential. Allowing it to be hijacked by other interests only risks delaying responses to urgent priorities.

  Karishma Vaswani is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Asia politics with a special focus on China. Previously, she was the BBC’s lead Asia presenter and worked for the BBC across Asia and South Asia for two decades. This column reflects the personal views of the author and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
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