Wed, Nov 07, 2001 page8

• Hu Jintao is old wine in new bottle

  • By Hsu Tung-ming 許東明
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  China's Vice President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) recently began a five-country tour of Europe. When meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Hu emphasized that one of the reasons for his visit was to give foreign leaders an opportunity to meet the man expected to become China's next leader. When he visited England, he held unprecedented discussions with Chinese students studying there. These actions seem to indicate that Beijing has already begun the work of passing on the leadership baton.

  Looking at China's political scene, Hu undoubtedly stands at the forefront among those in a position to become a fourth-generation leader. But as Western China-watchers have noted, although China has rules governing the process of succession, non-institutional power relationships are frequently more important than any precedents.

  This being the case, while Hu has long been seen as a popular choice, at what point will President Jiang Zemin (江澤民) really give him full power? And in the initial transitional period, how will power be divided between Jiang and Hu? Such questions have become issues of concern.

  China has always relied on a traditional model when it comes to succession. The current leader elevates several possible candidates and carefully observes their performance while examining how well they are received by other party elders.

  Only after a period of transition will the final candidate appear on stage, but what is worth noting is that those who stand aside for the new leader don't necessarily lose their power. They continue to occupy certain posts and are still able to exert influence.

  Therefore, the relationship between Jiang and Hu may operate along the lines of this old model, with Jiang set to announce his resignation from the position of general secretary of the Communist Party at the party's 16th national congress next fall, at the same time announcing Hu's succession.

  Nevertheless, China's three key political figures today -- Jiang , Premier Zhu Rongji (朱鎔基) and National People's Congress Chairman Li Peng (李鵬) -- may still assume posts such as president, chairman of the central military commission or chairman of the NPC's standing committee. So even if Hu is anointed as Jiang's successor, the three heavyweights would likely continue to exert considerable influence on China's politics.

  Actually, in light of the fact that China is facing yet another crucial moment, the heavyweights are all the less likely to give up their political influence. The "crucial moment" involves China's preparations to use its geographical advantages to bargain with the US as part of the global anti-terrorist movement in the wake of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks on the US. Possible bargaining points include US arms sales to Taiwan and restrictions on US arms sales to China.

  In addition, after China enters the WTO, how will the problem of increasing numbers of workers laid off from state-run enterprises be solved? Will China's poor farmers, who number more than the entire US population, become a new social problem? Finally, how can a smooth advance of preparations for the 2008 Olympic Games be ensured?

  All of these issues will be impossible for a new successor to confront independently before securing the foundations of his power. The political influence of the three political heavyweights, therefore, can only be expected to increase in the near future.

  Supposing that Hu does smoothly succeed Jiang, there is still another question as to what other influences will be brought to bear on Chinese politics. According to China's unwritten rules of political succession, members of the Politburo must be under 70. Those who should resign at the same time as Jiang, then, include two-thirds of the the body's current members. The process of succession, therefore, will create space for a younger group of leaders to come to the fore.

  The question that merits our attention is what kind of leaders these new voices will be. Will the ranks of the technocrats be strengthened? Or will the local political elite gain the upper hand?

  It won't be difficult to see the direction politics is taking by looking at how the center cultivates people politically from different social roles.

  China's second-generation leader Deng Xiaoping (鄧小平) transferred power to Jiang before he died. At the time, there was intense internal debate over whether China's economic reforms would follow socialism or capitalism. In 1992, after he had already retired, Deng made public his "southern tour" talks, which firmly established the country's direction toward the development of a market economy. It was only after the talks that China's transformation into a market economy was able to be smoothly carried out.

  Jiang, who later began to interact in new ways with the US and who led China to a successful Olympic bid, increased his prestige within the party significantly. What Deng did for Jiang might now be done by Jiang for Hu.

  The appearance of China's new leader won't be like the election of a new leader in a democratic society, when reforms are carried out in a sweeping manner on the basis of one's political platform. After all, China's new leader is still a product of the old political system.

  Hsu Tung-ming is a freelance writer residing in Beijing.

  Translated by Ethan Harkness
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