Taiwan would benefit from more integrated military strategies and deployments if the US and its allies treat the East China Sea, the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea as a “single theater of operations,” a Taiwanese military expert said yesterday.
Shen Ming-shih (沈明室), a researcher at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, said he made the assessment after two Japanese military experts warned of emerging threats from China based on a drill conducted this month by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) Eastern Theater Command.
Japan Institute for National Fundamentals researcher Maki Nakagawa said the drill differed from the earlier “Joint Sword” military exercises by involving Chinese fishers acting as a maritime militia coordinated with the PLA.
Photo sourced from Chinese social media.
The simulation of a naval blockade has expanded to cover critical marine corridors, and the drills also included scenarios simulating attacks on Taiwan’s liquefied natural gas receiving stations and other critical infrastructure, she said.
Tokyo must be prepared to deal with the possibility that the PLA would use drones and militia to land on the the Diaoyutai Islands (釣魚台), known as the Senkaku Islands in Japan, if there is a cross-strait conflict, she added.
Canon Institute for Global Studies researcher Kenji Minemura said that China is analyzing the conditions under which Japan might intervene in a cross-strait conflict, as well as exploring ways to deter such involvement.
Tokyo must identify the various forms of “gray zone” harassment from China and ensure that Japanese government agencies are prepared to coordinate their responses, Minemura said.
“To Japan, the greatest risk is losing the Diaoyutai Islands,” Shen told the Liberty Times (the Taipei Times’ sister newspaper).
“Although the islands are small and difficult to defend, Japan would be dealt a major blow if the islands were occupied by China, and the tensions between the two countries would surely escalate,” Shen said.
China is not likely to attempt to occupy the Diaoyutai Islands in the short term, considering that China is trying to pull Japan to its side and divide Japan and the US, Shen added.
Japan learned how to respond to international reactions after Tokyo nationalized three privately owned islands in the Diaoyutais — Uotsurisjima, Kitakojima and Minamikojima — in 2012, an action that triggered large protests in China and Taiwan, Shen said.
Japan and the US have since conducted joint exercises aimed at recapturing the islands if they were occupied by China, he added.
It is necessary to treat the East China Sea, the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea as a “single theater of operations,” Shen said, with unified command under the US Indo-Pacific Command to enable an integrated approach to managing conflicts across the critical waters.
Taiwan would benefit from such a strategy, as it would enable the US to frame its intervention in a cross-strait conflict as essential to regional security rather than an isolated case, Shen said.
An integrated approach would encompass the first island chain — including Taiwan, Japan and the Philippines — as well as Guam and Hawaii to facilitate more coordinated military deployments, he added.
“The US can view any Chinese invasion in these waters as a threat to the entire theater of operations and deal with it with a comprehensive war plan,” Shen said.
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