Global consumption of coffee is likely to climb 1 to 2 percent a year through the end of the decade, International Coffee Organization executive director Vanusia Nogueira said, estimating that about 25 million more 60kg bags would be needed over the next eight years.
“We are more conservative now for a short-term projection,” Nogueira said at a conference in Hanoi held by the Vietnam Coffee-Cocoa Association, referring to all the events the world is facing, including high inflation in Europe and Russia’s war in Ukraine.
The organization’s earlier forecasts for consumption growth averaging 3.3 percent a year over the long term were too “optimistic,” she added.
Photo: Bloomberg
The global market would reach a balance in supply and demand in the next two or three years, from a deficit now, Nogueira said in a Bloomberg interview.
The world needs more of arabica and robusta beans, but increases in robusta production and demand would be higher, she said.
Traditional arabica producers are trying to grow more robusta amid global warming, while roasters are seeking to add cheaper robusta to their blends.
“If you have robusta with higher quality, consumers won’t feel a big difference in the blends,” Nogueira said.
Many markets are looking for fine robusta, she said.
Vietnam is doing its homework on expanding to high-quality robusta production “quite well,” Nogueira said, adding that she was surprised to taste three sets of “very good” cups of coffee during a visit a day earlier with a group of international guests to a coffee shop owned by the nation’s second-largest exporter, Vinh Hiep Co.
The group does not see Vietnam’s global dominance of robusta exports being hurt by Brazil’s increased production of conilon, because the extra output would go to supplying the South American country’s soluble industry, the world’s largest, Nogueira said.
Producing nations need to boost domestic consumption for better prices and benefits to their economies, she said.
Vietnam expects domestic coffee consumption to rise 5 to 10 percent in the coming years, from the current 300,000 tonnes, which includes 170,000 tonnes used for instant coffee production, Do Ha Nam, vice head of the country’s coffee association, said at the conference.
Nam, who is also chairman of the nation’s top shipper Intimex Group, projected that shipments from Vietnam would drop this year and next year because of lower production and insignificant carry-over stocks from the previous season.
MARKET GAP: If China stops buying chips from US firm Micron, they might turn to competitors such as Nanya and South Korean suppliers, researchers said Nanya Technology Corp (南亞科技) shares rallied nearly 4 percent during early trading yesterday amid optimism that the nation’s biggest DRAM chipmaker would benefit from China’s latest ban on purchasing memory chips from Micron Technology Inc. The restrictions are widely considered a result of an escalating technology dispute between the US and China. Chinese firms might shift orders to non-US suppliers such as Nanya Technology and South Korean memory chipmakers Samsung Electronics Co and SK Hynix Inc. The Cyberspace Administration of China on Sunday night said that its review found that Micron’s memory chips pose serious network security risks to the country’s critical
SECURITY RISK: Chinese companies could respond to the announcement by moving away from all products made by the US firm, diverting business toward Korean rivals China delivered the latest salvo in an escalating semiconductor war with the US, announcing that Micron Technology Inc products have failed to pass a cybersecurity review in the country. Operators of key infrastructure in China should not buy the company’s goods, the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC) said in a statement on Sunday, adding that it found “relatively serious” cybersecurity risks in Micron products sold in China. The components caused “significant security risks to our critical information infrastructure supply chain,” which would affect national security, it said. The results come more than a month after China announced an investigation on imports from
STATE SUBSIDIES: The talks over a factory in Dresden have a top end on par with what Japan is offering TSMC and outdo a cap other firms are being offered in Europe Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電), the world’s biggest contract chipmaker, is in talks to receive German government subsidies for as much as 50 percent of the costs to build a new semiconductor fab in the country, people familiar with the matter said. The government is in ongoing negotiations with TSMC, as well as its partners on the project — Bosch Ltd, NXP Semiconductors NV and Infineon Technologies AG — the people said, asking not to be identified because the deliberations are private. No final decisions have been made and the final subsidy amount could still change. Any state aid must also
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電) senior vice president of business development Kevin Zhang (張曉強) told reporters yesterday that talks over a possible plant in Germany are continuing and that the earliest decision would be in August. “I don’t want to get into the politics side of the thing, but I do think that there is a need for us to provide our customers with a diverse supply,” Zhang said, adding that Europe is a “very significant geography given the customer base ... [and] the demand.” Zhang did not confirm the size of subsidy or cost of the potential project or
RSS