Russia’s offer of a new UN Security Council resolution on the violence in Syria is a pragmatic step by a country increasingly isolated in its support for a widely discredited leader.
The shift allows Russia to look less recalcitrant without giving ground on its opposition to sanctions or foreign military interference, which it has vociferously opposed since the NATO operation in Libya.
With the death toll mounting in bloodshed the world blames mostly on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, the Kremlin is under increasing pressure to abandon a government that has given Moscow one of its firmest footholds in the Middle East.
Photo: Reuters/Handout
It took a small step in that direction on Thursday, circulating a draft resolution that refers to “disproportionate use of force” by the Syrian authorities and urges them to stop “the suppression of those exercising their rights.”
In the short term, analysts said, Russia sees that it must distance itself from Assad in the eyes of the world.
“Russia is changing its position because to completely defend the Syrian regime is impossible given that everyone is against it, including practically all the Arab nations,” said Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of the journal Russia in Global Affairs.
“The point is to show that Russia favors a settlement, but is not a protector of Assad’s regime,” he said.
Russia has hosted Syrian opposition groups in recent months, but has rebuffed their pleas to press Assad to step down. Its diplomats have frequently said his opponents share much of the blame for the bloodshed.
In October, Russia and China used their veto power as permanent UN Security Council members to block passage of a Western-drafted resolution that would have condemned Syria’s government, calling it one-sided.
Western nations said Russia’s own draft made an unacceptable attempt to assign equal blame to the government and opponents.
The proximate cause for presenting a new one may have been a report this week in which UN human rights chief Navi Pillay said the death toll in nine months of protest exceeded 5,000 and that Syria’s actions could constitute crimes against humanity.
“We think that it’s because Russia has felt the pressure of the international community, especially after the shocking report of Mrs Pillay,” French Ambassador to the UN Gerard Araud said.
Longer term, Russia is hedging its bets on a game whose outcome is unclear.
Syria has been a major client for Russian arms sales and hosts a Russian naval maintenance facility on its Mediterranean coast, a rare outpost abroad for Moscow’s military.
Assad has been perhaps the closest Russia has to an ally in a region where a year of unrest has set back its efforts to build influence and economic clout.
However, short of the restoration of Syria’s pre-protest status quo, the best result for Russia would be a negotiated solution, especially if Moscow can claim credit.
That would be a big diplomatic victory for Russia on the world stage and would help it gain purchase in Syria in the future, something that would be out of the question if Assad’s opponents prevail and Russia is seen as backing him to the end.
Analysts said, however, that Russia would hold out against sanctions as long as possible, a strategy that may be supported by the draft resolution.
Any further movement is likely to be incremental because the Kremlin fears a sharp shift on Syria would be seen as a sign of weakness in the face of the West, unwelcome as Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin prepares for a presidential election in March.
Russia drew a line in the sand over Syria after voicing anger over NATO air strikes that helped Libyan rebels oust Muammar Qaddafi.
Moscow had let the NATO operation go ahead by abstaining in the Security Council vote that authorized it, but then accused the alliance of overstepping its mandate to protect civilians.
Putin likened the resolution to “medieval calls for crusades” at the time and in a call-in show televised live on Thursday, he again assailed the West over Libya, suggesting Qaddafi had been hounded to his death by US pilotless drones and NATO special forces egging rebels on.
However, he has said little publicly about Syria, leaving open the possibility of Russia’s stance evolving further.
For now, proposing a resolution, even one that Western nations say needs changes, strengthens Russia’s role in the struggle for a solution. The Russian draft calls for observers to deploy under an Arab League plan that Moscow has supported.
In a sign it is eager for such influence, Moscow has repeatedly suggested that Russia and its partners in the BRICS group of emerging market nations —Brazil, India, China and South Africa, which are all currently in the Security Council — could also send monitors if asked.
ROCKY RELATIONS: The figures on residents come as Chinese tourist numbers drop following Beijing’s warnings to avoid traveling to Japan The number of Chinese residents in Japan has continued to rise, even as ties between the two countries have become increasingly fractious, data released on Friday showed. As of the end of December last year, the number of Chinese residents had increased by 6.5 percent from the previous year to 930,428. Chinese people accounted for 22.6 percent of all foreign residents in Japan, making them by far the largest group, Japanese Ministry of Justice data showed. Beijing has criticized Tokyo in increasingly strident terms since Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi last year suggested that a military conflict around Taiwan could
A retired US colonel behind a privately financed rocket launch site in the Dominican Republic sees the project as a response to China’s dominance of the space race in Latin America. Florida-based Launch on Demand is slated to begin building a US$600 million facility in a remote region near the border with Haiti late this year. The project is designed to meet surging demand for the heavy-lift rockets needed to put clusters of satellites into orbit. It is also an answer to China’s growing presence in the region, said CEO Burton Catledge, a former commander of the US Air Force’s 45th Operations
Germany is considering Australia’s Ghost Bat robot fighter as it looks to select a combat drone to modernize its air force, German Minister of Defense Boris Pistorius said yesterday. Germany has said it wants to field hundreds of uncrewed fighter jets by 2029, and would make a decision soon as it considers a range of German, European and US projects developing so-called “collaborative combat aircraft.” Australia has said it will integrate the Ghost Bat, jointly developed by Boeing Australia and the Royal Australian Air Force, into its military after a successful weapons test last year. After inspecting the Ghost Bat in Queensland yesterday,
A pro-Iran hacking group claimed to breach FBI Director Kash Patel’s personal e-mail inbox and posted some of the contents online. The e-mails provided by the hacking group include travel details, correspondence with leasing agents in Washington and global entry, and loyalty account numbers. The e-mail address the hackers claim to have compromised has been previously tied to Patel’s personal details, and the leaked e-mails contain photos of Patel and others, in addition to correspondence with family members and colleagues. “The FBI is aware of malicious actors targeting Director Patel’s personal email information,” the agency said in a statement on
RSS