Guinea-Bissau, a West African country known for its political crises and coups, votes for a new leader today to replace late president Joao Bernardo “Nino” Vieira, who was assassinated more than three months ago.
The ballot in the tiny country flanked by Senegal and Guinea is expected to be peaceful, but analysts say the real test for the former Portuguese colony will come afterward.
The military has held sway over the country’s top politicians for decades, and since the introduction of multiparty politics 15 years ago no president has completed the constitutionally mandated five-year term in office. The poor African country also has seen drug money flow to corrupt officials as smugglers pay bribes to use its coastline and remote airstrips for cocaine transshipments.
“The real test for Guinea-Bissau is not whether the election is held peacefully, but whether state institutions have the capacity to prevent the country from sliding into chaos in the aftermath,” consulting group IHS Global Insight said. “The military has been far too dominant in Bissau-Guinean politics ... There is a real need for the international community to offer support.”
Vieira was murdered on March 2, just hours after his longtime rival, the head of the armed forces, was killed by a bomb. Little was done to investigate the killings and no arrests have been made.
Despite fears the army would take over, though, the transition has been smooth. The head of parliament, Raimundo Pereira, was swiftly named interim president and is leading the interim government organizing today’s vote.
The ballot is going ahead, despite the slaying earlier this month by security forces of presidential candidate Baciro Dabo, whose family denied allegations he had been involved in a coup plot.
Eleven candidates are vying for the presidency, but only three are considered serious contenders.
The first is Malam Bacai Sanha, who served as interim president for a year following the country’s 1998 to 1999 civil war and head of the national assembly from 1994 to 1999. Sanha is a candidate of the main political party, the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde, or PAIGC, which holds a majority in parliament.
The second candidate is Kumba Yala, a former president who was elected in 2000 but became deeply unpopular and was overthrown in a bloodless coup three years later. Yala, a former philosophy professor, is a candidate for the opposition Party for Social Renewal.
Henrique Rosa is the third key canddidate and served as interim head of state after Yala was ousted in the 2003 coup. A businessman and the race’s only independent, Rosa helped organize 2005 elections which brought Vieira to power.
Since independence from Portugal in 1974, Guinea-Bissau has been beset by a series of coups, military revolts and political assassinations. The lawlessness has in recent years attracted South American drugs traffickers, who have used the country as a transit point for shipping cocaine to Europe.
Given the history, many voters are skeptical the next president will be able to enforce the rule of law in a country where the military is deeply involved in politics and the judiciary is weak.
“It is not normal in a democratic state ... to have a group come and kill the president and nobody is accountable,” said Vladimir Monteiro, information officer at the UN peace-building mission.
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