A major new US study warns that while it is important to build mutual trust, China and Taiwan should not move prematurely to discuss military confidence-building measures (CBM) and should wait until both sides are fully prepared.
“Leaders in both mainland China and Taiwan realize that they face an important and historic opportunity to improve cross-strait relations and begin the process of resolving long-standing differences,” says the report, authored by Bonnie Glaser, an expert on Chinese foreign and security policy and a senior fellow at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
It adds: “More work is needed to increase political trust.”
The study says that Taipei and Beijing should take concrete steps to create conditions under which dialogue on military CBMs can be launched.
It was released as US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton acknowledged for the first time that US relations with China may be entering a rough period as a result of plans to sell arms to Taiwan and US President Barack Obama’s decision to meet the Dalai Lama.
Clinton told reporters on the plane as she launched a nine-day, three-nation, Asia-Pacific tour that the US and China had a “mature relationship” and that “it doesn’t go off the rails when we have differences of opinion.”
She said: “We will provide defensive arms for Taiwan. We have a difference of perspective on the role and ambitions of the Dalai Lama.”
Clinton is the highest-ranking member of the Obama administration to confirm that an arms sales package is in the works.
There is widespread speculation that it will be announced soon.
At a meeting to present the study, Glaser said that within China there was an assessment that its position in the world had grown and that the US was valuing the US-China relationship more and that this provided it with greater leverage over the US on issues involving Taiwan.
She said this was a “miscalculation” because ultimately the US had its own interests, not just US relations with China — “as important as those are” — but also credibility throughout the entire region and globally.
Michael Green, another Asia expert at CSIS, said it was all the more important to demonstrate now that the financial crisis had not changed the fundamentals and that arms sales to Taiwan would move forward.
Asked if the strident rhetoric from China condemning US arms sales to Taiwan would have any impact, Ralph Cossa, president of the Pacific Forum at CSIS, said the Chinese had painted themselves into a corner.
He said: “If we said we were going to sell a bow and arrow to Taiwan they would have the same harsh reaction — as if it were the end of the world.”
Cossa warned the Chinese to beware of “premature arrogance” and said they had become over confident.
Glaser’s study, Building Trust Across the Taiwan Strait: A Role for Military Confidence-building Measures, recommends, among other things, that China should continue to expand economic ties with Taiwan, remove any obstacles to Taiwan’s participation in international NGOs, and make “adjustments” in deployments of its missiles targeting Taiwan.
It says President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) should seek a broad domestic consensus across Taiwan’s political spectrum in favor of expanding ties with China and that cross-strait reconciliation should only proceed at a pace that is supported by the majority of Taiwanese.
The US, the study says, should avoid pressuring Taiwan to enter into discussions that the Taiwanese leadership deems premature and should also make clear its support in principle for cross-strait agreements that are reached by the “free and uncoerced choice of the people on both sides.”
Green said the US had a critical role in providing support and leverage for Taiwan’s position when it came to negotiating military CBMs.
“Beijing would be very satisfied with an outcome where some symbolic CBMs lead to a peace framework agreement that is predicated on an end to US arms sales to Taiwan or otherwise constraining Taiwan’s defense,” he said.
“The military imbalance is growing to Beijing’s advantage. In this environment there may be a temptation in Beijing to not push meaningful CBMs, but rather to watch Taiwan’s strategic military situation get more and more problematic and then use the CBM process to lock that vulnerability in with constraints on Taiwan’s readiness,” he said.
Cossa said that as Ma’s popularity has dropped, China’s perception that time was on its side and that it would leave some issues until Ma’s second term, had begun to fade.
He said: “No one in Beijing talks about Ma’s second term now. They talk about the need to consolidate what has been done.”
NUMBERS IMBALANCE: More than 4 million Taiwanese have visited China this year, while only about half a million Chinese have visited here Beijing has yet to respond to Taiwan’s requests for negotiation over matters related to the recovery of cross-strait tourism, the Tourism Administration said yesterday. Taiwan’s tourism authority issued the statement after Chinese-language daily the China Times reported yesterday that the government’s policy of banning group tours to China does not stop Taiwanese from visiting the country. As of October, more than 4.2 million had traveled to China this year, exceeding last year. Beijing estimated the number of Taiwanese tourists in China could reach 4.5 million this year. By contrast, only 500,000 Chinese tourists are expected in Taiwan, the report said. The report
Temperatures are forecast to drop steadily as a continental cold air mass moves across Taiwan, with some areas also likely to see heavy rainfall, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said. From today through early tomorrow, a cold air mass would keep temperatures low across central and northern Taiwan, and the eastern half of Taiwan proper, with isolated brief showers forecast along Keelung’s north coast, Taipei and New Taipei City’s mountainous areas and eastern Taiwan, it said. Lows of 11°C to 15°C are forecast in central and northern Taiwan, Yilan County, and the outlying Kinmen and Lienchiang (Matsu) counties, and 14°C to 17°C
STEERING FAILURE: The first boat of its class is experiencing teething issues as it readies for acceptance by the navy, according to a recent story about rudder failure The Hai Kun (海鯤), the nation’s first locally built submarine, allegedly suffered a total failure of stern hydraulic systems during the second round of sea acceptance trials on June 26, and sailors were forced to manually operate the X-rudder to turn the submarine and return to port, news Web site Mirror Daily reported yesterday. The report said that tugboats following the Hai Kun assisted the submarine in avoiding collisions with other ships due to the X-rudder malfunctioning. At the time of the report, the submarine had completed its trials and was scheduled to begin diving and surfacing tests in shallow areas. The X-rudder,
DEMAND: The government should enact regulations in line with Austria and Germany to incorporate vegan nutrition into school meals, an advocate said More than 1,000 people yesterday marched in Taipei to promote veganism, calling for legislation to incorporate vegan diets into school lunches and the national net zero emissions program. Participants gathered on Ketagalan Boulevard in front of the Presidential Office Building for the march, which was organized by the Vegan Action Network (VAN). Former ambassador to Chad Chiu Chung-jen (邱仲仁), actor Yankee Yang (楊子儀) and actress Cindy Lien (連俞涵) attended the event. VAN member Marianne Chao (趙梅君) said that the campaign aimed to urge the government to promote vegan diets across schools and government agencies via legislation and national policies, which would help build
RSS