The five special municipality elections on Nov. 27 are developing into a strange set of elections. The ruling Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) is behaving like an opposition party as it goes on the attack, while the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) runs a defensive, stable campaign as if it were in power.
In addition to controlling the national government, the KMT is also in charge of Taipei City, Taipei County and Taichung City. The DPP, on the other hand, is using its best potential candidates for the 2012 presidential election in these elections, as former premier Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌) and DPP Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) are running in Taipei City and Sinbei City. Some think Su and Tsai would prefer not to win, as they would not want to miss out on the presidential election. At the same time, they cannot afford to lose this month, as that would make it difficult for them to convince the party that they have a real chance of winning a presidential election.
Although Kaohsiung County Commissioner Yang Chiu-hsing (楊秋興) left the DPP to run for the Greater Kaohsiung mayorship, DPP Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Chu (陳菊) has a strong lead in the run-up to that election, as does the party’s candidate for the Greater Tainan mayorship, William Lai (賴清德). The KMT’s candidates in Greater Kaohsiung, Huang Chao-shun (黃昭順), and Greater Tainan, Kuo Tien-tsai (郭添財), are mounting a powerful challenge, with KMT -Secretary-General King Pu-tsung (金溥聰) campaigning in the south in an attempt to mobilize voters, although that seems to be having a limited effect.
Taichung Mayor Jason Hu (胡志強) holds a comfortable lead in the Greater Taichung election. He has bounced back after a drop in support following the assassination of alleged gangster Weng Chi-nan (翁奇楠) and is now leading in opinion polls.
In Taipei, Mayor Hau Lung-bin (郝龍斌) is taking a drubbing amid allegations of irregularities related to the Xinsheng Overpass. He is trying to improve his situation by capitalizing on the Luzhou MRT line and the inauguration of the Taipei International Flora Expo. Although Su is the challenger in this race, he is calm and doesn’t look pressured as he continues with his campaign and proposes city policies mixed with occasional criticism of current policy.
Tsai’s campaign has abandoned the DPP’s traditional attack mode as she strives to build an image of rationality, while the KMT’s candidate, former vice premier Eric Chu (朱立倫), is urgently asking Tsai to engage in a televised debate.
After the Taipei District Court declared former president Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) and co-defendants not guilty in their bribery trial, the KMT resorted to playing the “hate Chen” card to mobilize deep-blue supporters as they called on the public to protest against the verdict. The DPP, which relied on demonstrations during its early development, has avoided taking to the streets and is instead mocking the KMT’s anxiety.
The main reason the government and opposition seem to have changed places in this campaign is the KMT’s disappointing performance. The government staked all its bets on the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement, Chinese tourism and direct cross-strait flights. Although economic indexes are rising, unemployment remains high and the wealth gap is increasing as salaries remain stagnant. As the public mood changes, it is only natural that the KMT is more worried than the DPP.
During its time in power, the KMT’s policies have strayed too far from public expectations, which has changed the overall political environment. These strategic mistakes cannot be put right by tactical advertising and demonstrations. The defeat of the Democratic Party in the US midterm elections would be a good reference point for President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) and his government.
Taiwan’s domestic political situation is following recognizable political rhythms, while the international environment surrounding Taiwan is undergoing a major transformation. Within Taiwan, there are ongoing battles between the legislative and executive branches over the budget, and between cities and the central government over resources. Tensions between political parties dominate headlines and consume much of the attention of party leaders. Jockeying is underway for local elections this November and national elections in 2028. And the longstanding philosophical debate inside Taiwan over how best to protect Taiwan and promote the good life remains unresolved. Amidst all of this, Taiwan continues to function well. It
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