During the controversy surrounding Japan’s detention of the captain of a Chinese fishing boat in the waters off the Diaoyutai Islands (釣魚台), China displayed the strength of a major power, forcing Japan to call on the US-Japan security treaty and Washington’s assistance in reining in Beijing.
The question of how to counterbalance the power of a rising China has become a matter of grave concern to the international community.
Although power in the Taiwan Strait is rapidly tilting in Beijing’s favor as its military, diplomatic and economic powers develop far beyond Taiwan’s reach, Taipei still possesses certain strengths that remain crucial when dealing with China.
Although Beijing often talks about “socialism with Chinese characteristics,” its growth has essentially followed Taiwan’s export-led development model.
As a result, the capital, technology and export experience brought in by China-based Taiwanese businesspeople has been an important catalyst for development, presenting a practical example of how Taiwan’s soft power is helping to change China.
As the emerging middle class and the number of people who have received higher education in China grow, Chinese society is reaching a turning point, as these groups pay more attention to public affairs and demand a greater part in decision-making.
This makes a clash with the one-party rule of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) almost inevitable.
As social tensions increase, China will have to move toward political reform.
Taiwan went through this process in the 1970s and 1980s. As discontent with the Chinese Nationalist Party’s (KMT) own one-party rule increased among the emerging middle class, people began to demand democracy, freedom and other rights. Despite the KMT’s efforts to suppress such demands, which led to the Kaohsiung Incident and the jailing of many pro-democracy dissidents, the party was ultimately forced to end martial law and lift the ban on establishing new political parties and newspapers.
Those moves then led inexorably to free legislative elections and the first popular election of Taiwan’s president. The KMT was unable to resist increasing social pressure and in 2000, Taiwan experienced its first peaceful transfer of power.
The Chinese leadership is now beginning to realize that economic reform will lead to similar demands for political reform, which is why Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao (溫家寶) has recently addressed the topic. Chinese President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) also broached the subject in a speech at the fifth plenary session of the CCP’s 17th Central Committee. Clearly, the Chinese leadership understands the need for political reform. The question is how extensive it should be and at what speed it should be carried out so as not to cause social instability and minimize its impact on the CCP.
When the Nobel Committee awarded the peace prize to Liu Xiaobo (劉曉波), it was an indication of strong support for China’s democracy movement and while change will not be immediate, it is unavoidable.
The CCP needs to decide whether to attempt to obstruct democracy or facilitate its development. If it chooses the former then history will pass it by, just as it did the Communist Party of the Soviet Union. If, however, the CCP decides to embrace change then it could repeat the experience of the KMT, which suffered in the short run, but remains a political force in Taiwan.
The experience of Taiwan over the past 20 years shows that a peaceful and bloodless change from authoritarianism to freedom and democratic rule has built public support for human rights. The best way for Taiwan to help China and the world is to promote such change.
Recently, China launched another diplomatic offensive against Taiwan, improperly linking its “one China principle” with UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 to constrain Taiwan’s diplomatic space. After Taiwan’s presidential election on Jan. 13, China persuaded Nauru to sever diplomatic ties with Taiwan. Nauru cited Resolution 2758 in its declaration of the diplomatic break. Subsequently, during the WHO Executive Board meeting that month, Beijing rallied countries including Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Belarus, Egypt, Nicaragua, Sri Lanka, Laos, Russia, Syria and Pakistan to reiterate the “one China principle” in their statements, and assert that “Resolution 2758 has settled the status of Taiwan” to hinder Taiwan’s
Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s (李顯龍) decision to step down after 19 years and hand power to his deputy, Lawrence Wong (黃循財), on May 15 was expected — though, perhaps, not so soon. Most political analysts had been eyeing an end-of-year handover, to ensure more time for Wong to study and shadow the role, ahead of general elections that must be called by November next year. Wong — who is currently both deputy prime minister and minister of finance — would need a combination of fresh ideas, wisdom and experience as he writes the nation’s next chapter. The world that
Can US dialogue and cooperation with the communist dictatorship in Beijing help avert a Taiwan Strait crisis? Or is US President Joe Biden playing into Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) hands? With America preoccupied with the wars in Europe and the Middle East, Biden is seeking better relations with Xi’s regime. The goal is to responsibly manage US-China competition and prevent unintended conflict, thereby hoping to create greater space for the two countries to work together in areas where their interests align. The existing wars have already stretched US military resources thin, and the last thing Biden wants is yet another war.
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, people have been asking if Taiwan is the next Ukraine. At a G7 meeting of national leaders in January, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida warned that Taiwan “could be the next Ukraine” if Chinese aggression is not checked. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has said that if Russia is not defeated, then “today, it’s Ukraine, tomorrow it can be Taiwan.” China does not like this rhetoric. Its diplomats ask people to stop saying “Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow.” However, the rhetoric and stated ambition of Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) on Taiwan shows strong parallels with