China is angry at the US for selling defensive weapons to Taiwan. The US has also incurred China’s displeasure by continuing to treat the Dalai Lama with consideration and regard, as seen by the recent meeting between the Tibetan leader and US President Barack Obama, which went ahead despite China’s protests.
Let us consider Taiwan first.
China always protests whenever the US sells weapons to Taiwan, but this time there is a difference. Its tone is much harsher, threatening the US with unspecified consequences over its bilateral relationship with Taiwan.
However, the US is only doing what it has done in the past, namely fulfilling its obligation under the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 to sell weapons to defend Taiwan against any military attack from China.
This is even more relevant today as China continues to increase its deployment of missiles targeting Taiwan. Experts estimate this deployment already exceeds 1,000 missiles, and these cannot possibly be meant to defend China from Taiwan.
Beijing contends that Taiwan belongs to China, and the US is interfering in its internal affairs. In other words, the US should accept its claim to sovereignty over Taiwan.
This is a dangerous way for China to pursue its objective, as the choice it presents to Taiwan is to either accept Chinese sovereignty or face the consequences of a military attack. The Taiwan Relations Act was meant precisely to ward off such an eventuality.
Washington does not have any objection to peaceful unification based on the will of the people of Taiwan. But China is opposed to any exercise of popular mandate in Taiwan, rightly fearing that Taiwanese prefer to remain a sovereign nation while pursuing peaceful relations with China, over the entire range of supposed benefits from reunification.
Beijing has pre-empted this possibility, as far as it is concerned, by unilaterally declaring Taiwan to be part of China and passing domestic legislation to that effect.
In other words, any formal declaration of sovereignty by Taiwan will lead to its forcible annexation by China.
The main obstacle in China’s path is the US and the Taiwan Relations Act, which commits the US to help defend Taiwan against a Chinese invasion.
It is therefore unsurprising that Beijing protests every time Taiwan procures US weapons, but this time China is being more belligerent.
For instance, it has threatened trade sanctions against US companies involved in the sale of weapons to Taiwan.
This can perhaps be explained by a growing belief in China that the US is a declining power and is therefore more easily pushed around.
Snubbing the US is also a convenient way of asserting China’s great power status.
A recent example was seen at the Copenhagen climate change conference when the Chinese premier failed to attend an event hosted by Obama.
Whether or not the US is a declining power is academic because even with its many problems, the US remains the world’s largest economy and its pre-eminent military power. As such, for China to treat the US in such a cavalier fashion could be both dangerous and counterproductive.
In the case of Taiwan, Beijing might conclude that its new international status and military power are deterrent enough for the US to stay out of any cross-strait conflict. But for China to overestimate its power relative to that of the US could turn out to be a costly strategic blunder.
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