Europe is set for a mild November, easing pressure on natural-gas storage as the region’s energy crunch restricts supplies ahead of winter.
Long-range outlooks from forecasters Maxar Technologies and Marex show no cold spells for the month — a relief for households worried about the cost of heating and for governments keen to preserve gas stocks following a slump in Russian supply.
“In terms of energy demand, the warm start to November would be a welcome sign given the current state of global energy,” said Matthew Dross, a meteorologist at Maxar. “Still, occasional bouts of cold air cannot be ruled out for November and the winter 2022-2023 season as a whole.”
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European gas prices have dropped significantly since peaking in August, but are still about 80 percent above year-ago levels. Market spikes have driven up costs for consumers and industry, with many bracing for eyewatering winter bills.
“Strong above-normal” temperatures are expected early this month, while mild weather will continue through the month, Dross said.
Other forecasters have suggested a possible return to average temperatures in the second half of this month.
Autumn in Europe has already been unseasonably warm, with last month registering the lowest number of “heating-degree days” since 2000, Dross said.
That has helped keep gas in storage facilities, which are now about 95 percent full across the continent, with Germany’s sites above target at almost 99 percent.
Germany’s national forecaster Deutscher Wetterdienst said the country’s current warm weather is set to continue, while France’s weather service also sees higher-than-usual temperatures persisting.
In the UK, the chances of a colder-than-normal winter are actually increasing, although the most likely scenario remains an average winter through next month, Britain’s Met Office said.
Lower-than-expected gas demand and declining prices — coupled with limited capacity to accommodate incoming cargoes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) — have already triggered greater use of floating storage. Traders globally are keeping their LNG shipments on vessels for longer — with record volumes at sea last month — in anticipation of higher prices later in the season.
“LNG carriers with an estimated worth of about US$2 billion are currently queuing to unload their cargo,” said Alexandre Fierro, a senior meteorologist and research analyst at Marex in London.
A warm November would be far from solving Europe’s energy problems, but a delayed start to the heating season would at least give policymakers some breathing room.
Moreover, if the region is spared a deep freeze this winter — as predicted by scientists at the Copernicus Climate Change Service — consumers might get welcome respite from the worst cost-of-living crisis in decades.
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