An international security expert on Wednesday said that newly elected South Korean President Lee Jae-myung's rhetoric suggests his administration is more likely to pursue economic cooperation with Taiwan than a defense alliance.
Even before his election, Lee said that South Korea would keep its distance if a cross-strait conflict occurred during his term.
Lee is unlikely to commit to a defense partnership with Taiwan, international security expert Eun A Jo said.
Photo: CNA
She was speaking after the "Looking Forward: The Future of United States-Japan-Korea Trilateral Relations" conference held by the Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Korea Foundation in Washington.
As a self-described "pragmatist and realist," Lee defines South Korea's interests differently from the strategic clarity pursued by former South Korean president Yoon Suk-yeol, Jo said.
South Korea is more concerned about potential spillover effects in North Korea and how it might respond in the event of a cross-strait conflict, she said.
Given the threat from North Korea, South Korea might lack the capacity to join a coalition in a Taiwan contingency, Jo said.
"I think these are kind of part of the issues that will end up becoming negotiated in a bundle with the Trump administration," she said. "So there could be a movement, but I don't see the current South Korean administration in particular being interested in any kind of explicit commitment to defend Taiwan during a contingency."
Regarding US President Donald Trump, Jo said the administration in Seoul appears to be considering making US forces in South Korea more "strategically flexible" to respond to potential conflicts beyond the Korean Peninsula.
On potential Taiwan-South Korea cooperation beyond defense, Jo said that both countries share interests in managing Trump's tariffs, regional economic integration and reducing economic dependence on China.
"That's a key shared interest between both South Korea and Taiwanese governments, and I'm sure they're all looking toward diversifying trade partners. So wherever synergies exist, it'll be in economic integration," she said.
Economic partnerships would likely focus on semiconductors, alongside traditional areas such as trade and investment, she added.
"Both are interested in reducing economic dependence on China and exposure to a sort of foreign economic coercion, and also facing a lot of potential hurdles with the Trump administration's ongoing tariff policy," Jo said. "So that's where I see a lot of potential synergy for cooperation."
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