China might use methods of mass coercion against Taiwan to force it to cede to its demands without the need for conventional warfare, the American Enterprise Institute said in a report on Monday last week.
“The US must recognize the possibility and danger of a coercion campaign that is far more intense than the one currently ongoing against Taiwan and develop ways to prevent Taiwan’s isolation through means short of war,” the Washington-based think tank said.
The report studies a potential strategy that Beijing could employ in a bid to force Taiwan to capitulate by engaging in an “anti-separation” strategy, tackling the issue on four fronts: opposing Taiwan-US cooperation; eroding Taipei’s ability to operate, cyberwarfare and disinformation.
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These tactics would involve convincing Taiwanese and Americans that cooperation would lead to escalation, eroding the government’s ability to provide essential services through air and sea closures, extensive and persistent cognitive warfare to break the will to resist among Taiwanese and campaigns to decrease support for Taiwan among the US public and officials, the report said.
Radio Free Asia on Friday last week said that China would likely ramp up its “united front” efforts against Taiwan over the next four years with President William Lai (賴清德) in office, with the aim of obstructing the international community’s support for Taiwan.
Beijing would aim to force Taiwan to accept a “peace process” or “unification agreement” by 2028, Radio Free Asia said.
Dan Blumenthal, author of the report and senior fellow at the institute, said that the US and its allies are too focused on deterring or repelling a military conflict with the Chinese People’s Liberation Army, while ignoring “non-war threats” from China.
The US and its allies must soon change focus and take aim at Chinese coercion, the report added.
“The US, Taiwan and a global coalition of states are entirely capable of developing adequate countermeasures to deter and defeat a PRC [People’s Republic of China] coercion campaign targeting Taiwan through immediate action and close coordination,” it said.
“We recommend that Taiwan develop the capability to counter a wide range of PRC coercive actions aimed at decreasing ROC [Republic of China] governmental capacity and the Taiwanese public’s desire for autonomy,” it added.
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