China is warning it will respond forcefully if US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi proceeds with a visit to Taiwan, the self-governing island democracy it claims as its own territory. Pelosi is second in line to the presidency and would be the highest ranking US politician to visit Taiwan since 1997. China has threatened unspecified ”resolute and strong measures” if she goes ahead, which analysts say could cause tensions to spike in the Taiwan Strait, considered a major Asian powder keg.
Here’s a look at what’s happening.
WHY DOES PELOSI WANT TO VISIT TAIWAN?
Photo: Reuters 照片：路透
Pelosi has been a staunch critic of China throughout her more than three decades in Congress, once unfurling a banner on Beijing’s Tiananmen Square memorializing those killed in the bloody crackdown on pro-democracy protesters in 1989. She was also a strong supporter of 2019 pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong, making her a target of caustic criticism from Beijing. Taiwan enjoys strong bipartisan support in Congress, and Pelosi said last week it was “important for us to show support for Taiwan.” Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen has defied Beijing’s threats and her administration has favored core democratic values and liberal policies close to Pelosi’s heart, including same-sex marriage and a strong social security net.
WHY WOULD THE VISIT CAUSE A RISE IN TENSIONS?
China claims Taiwan as its own territory to be annexed by force if necessary and its military buildup in recent years has largely been oriented toward such a mission. Beijing objects to all official contact between Taipei and Washington, and routinely threatens retaliation. This time, the stakes appear to be higher. China launched military exercises and fired missiles into waters near Taiwan in response to a 1995 visit to the US by Taiwan’s then-president Lee Teng-hui, but it’s military capabilities have advanced massively since then. While experts say it’s unlikely China would use force to prevent Pelosi’s US government plane from landing in Taipei, its response remains unpredictable. Threatening military drills and incursions by ships and planes are considered potential scenarios that would set the entire region on edge.
Photo: AP 照片：美聯社
WHY IS THE TIMING SENSITIVE?
The administration of US President Joe Biden, who spoke to Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Thursday last week, is keen to keep the US’s crucial but often turbulent and highly complex relationship with China on an even keel. Pelosi had planned to visit in April but postponed after getting COVID-19. She has declined to discuss reported plans to travel to Taiwan in coming weeks. That could coincide with China’s celebrations of the Aug. 1 anniversary of the founding of the People’s Liberation Army, the military wing of the ruling Communist Party.
A more robust Chinese response could also be driven by Xi’s desire to bolster his nationalist credentials ahead of a party congress later this year at which he is expected to seek a third five-year term in office. Xi’s expansion of his powers into every sphere and his hardline zero-COVID response to the domestic epidemic has sowed a degree of resentment and appealing to raw patriotism, particularly over Taiwan, might help him fend off criticism.
WHAT IS TAIWAN’S ATTITUDE TOWARD A VISIT?
Tsai has been welcoming of all foreign dignitaries, serving and retired, from the US, Europe and Asia, using such visits as a bulwark against China’s refusal to deal with her government and relentless campaign of diplomatic isolation. Still, her rhetoric on such occasions has generally been relatively low-key, reflecting her own calm demeanor and possibly a desire not to further antagonize China, which remains a crucial economic partner, with around a million Taiwanese residing in China.
(AP)
中國警告說，如果美國眾議院議長南希‧裴洛西到訪台灣，中國將作出強力回應。對於台灣這民主自治的島嶼，中國聲稱為其領土。裴洛西是美國總統職位的第二順位繼位人，若她果真訪台，將是自一九九七年來到訪台灣位階最高的美國政治人物。中國威脅說，若她進行訪台，將採取某種「堅決及強力的手段」，分析家表示，這可能導致台灣海峽緊張局勢加劇，台海被認為是亞洲一大火藥庫。
以下來看看目前情勢。
裴洛西為何要訪問台灣？
裴洛西在任職國會的三十多年中，一直堅定批判中國，她曾在北京天安門廣場展開橫幅，悼念在一九八九年民主抗議血腥鎮壓中喪生的人。她也是二○一九年香港民主抗議活動的堅定支持者，這使她成為北京嚴厲批評的對象。台灣在美國國會得到民主、共和兩黨的大力支持，裴洛西上週表示，「對台灣表達支持，對我們來說是很重要的」。台灣總統蔡英文無視北京的威脅，蔡政府支持對裴洛西所重視的核心民主價值與自由政策，包括同性婚姻及強大的社會安全網。
為何訪台會導致緊張局勢升高？
中國聲稱台灣為其領土，必要時將以武力併吞台灣，中國近年來的軍事建設主要便是針對此目標。北京反對台北和華盛頓之間所有的官方接觸，並經常威脅要進行報復。而這次的風險似乎更高。一九九五年台灣總統李登輝訪美，中國發動軍事演習並向台灣附近海域發射導彈做為回應，而此後中國的軍事能力大幅提升。儘管專家表示，中國不太可能使用武力阻止裴洛西的美國政府專機降落在台北，但中國的反應仍是無法預測。威嚇的軍事演習及船隻與飛機的入侵為可能狀況，會使整個區域陷入緊張。
為何此刻時間敏感？
上週四與中國領導人習近平通話的美國總統喬‧拜登，其政府欲維繫與中國間之關係──這是極重要的關係，但往往動盪且高度複雜──使之平穩。裴洛西原計劃在四月訪台，但因感染COVID-19而延期。據報她計畫在未來數週前往台灣，對此她拒絕討論。這可能與中國慶祝八月一日中國人民解放軍（執政的共產黨之軍事部門）成立紀念日時間相符。
習近平在今年稍晚召開的中共黨代會中預計將尋求第三個為期五年的任期，他希望在此之前加強其民族主義作風，這也可能促使中國做出更強硬的回應。習近平將權力擴大到各個領域，且他對中國的COVID-19疫情採取強硬的清零措施，已種下一定程度的民怨，訴諸赤裸裸的愛國主義，尤其是將台灣納入版圖的愛國主義，可能有助於他抵禦批評。
台灣對裴洛西來訪的態度為何？
蔡英文總統一向歡迎所有來自美國、歐洲及亞洲的在職及退休的外國政要，並利用這些訪問作為堡壘，反制中國對蔡政府的拒絕溝通，以及不斷的外交孤立。儘管如此，她在這些外賓來訪場合的言辭總體而言都比較低調，反映出她自己冷靜的舉止，可能是不想進一步激怒中國。中國仍是台灣重要的經濟夥伴，大約有一百萬台灣人居住在中國。
（台北時報林俐凱編譯）
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BBC曾在旅遊版刊出了一篇名為《The Island That Never Stops Apologizing》的文章，稱台灣為一個不斷道歉的島嶼，原因是台灣人常在生活上說「不好意思」，甚至以「不好意思」用做發語詞。在日常生活中，我們也有需要表達歉意的場合，但如何說抱歉，何時說抱歉卻因文化和風俗民情產生差異。話不多說，就讓我們來學學表達抱歉的英語口說方式，也是TOEIC測驗常見的用語喔！ 從小錯誤到正式道歉 在發生一般小錯誤時，可以用 My bad!（我的錯！）來表達歉意。這個表現方式較常出現在美式英語中，意思即是I admit that it’s my fault。除了My Bad，你也可以用(It’s) My fault! 或 (It’s) My mistake!來表達歉意。 而我們最常用來表達歉意的sorry，則可用在不同程度的錯誤，比如當我們不小心撞到人時，到較嚴重的錯誤都可用(I’m) Sorry about that。 如果要說明對什麼事情感到抱歉時，就可以用for +原因。for 為介系詞，所以後面需加名詞或動名詞。 I’m sorry for being late. （抱歉，我遲到了。） 過去可能犯下的錯誤 另外，因為may 和might常用在「可能」（並非100%的肯定）的狀況，所以可以用may/might have + Vp.p. 來表示對過去可能犯下的錯誤。 I’m sorry for any inconvenience / problems that I may have caused. （我對可能所造成的不便／問題感到抱歉。） 此外，也可以用should have + Vp.p. 或shouldn’t Vp.p.來表示過去「應該」或「不應該」的一種後悔或懊悔。 I should have checked the quality of our products more thoroughly. （我應該更仔細的檢查產品的品質。） I’m sorry, I shouldn’t have done that. （抱歉，我不應該那樣做。） 如果要表達當時並非有意這樣做時的這種較無心之過，也可用I didn’t mean to V。 I didn’t mean to hurt your feelings. （我不是故意要讓你難過或不舒服。） 較正式的道歉 如果是較正式的道歉或書面上的道歉，一般上會用 apologize (v)、apology (n) 來表示，而介系詞則是用for。 1. I’d like to apologize for. . . .（我想為……而道歉） 2. I sincerely apologize.（我真誠地道歉。） 3. I owe you an apology.（我欠你一個道歉） 4. My (sincere / deepest)
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