President William Lai (賴清德) on Sunday congratulated Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and her Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) on their historic landslide victory in Japan’s general election.
The LDP secured the largest single-party majority in post-World War II Japan, winning 316 seats. The win is expected to strengthen ties with Japan’s allies and potentially deter Chinese aggression in the region.
American Institute in Taiwan Director Raymond Greene on Monday said that under Takaichi’s leadership, he anticipates deeper coordination among the US, Japan and Taiwan to promote regional stability and prosperity. US President Donald Trump has also shown his strong support for Takaichi, and is likely to endorse her plans for increased military spending.
Takaichi has outlined a broader security agenda, aiming to reduce legal restrictions on defense spending. This would enable Japan to develop a “normal” military capacity rather than maintaining a defensive force, the Financial Times said.
One aim of expanding the Japan Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) is to allow participation in matters of collective defense, such as aiding Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack. Speaking in the Japanese National Diet in November last year, Takaichi said a conflict in the Taiwan Strait could be a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan, justifying the JSDF’s right to collective self-defense.
Her comments angered Beijing, which attempted to pressure her into retracting the statement. Foundation on Asia-Pacific Peace Studies CEO Dong Li-wen (董立文) attributed the LDP’s sweeping victory in part to Takaichi’s firm stance.
Beijing also tried to exploit historical tensions to drive a wedge between Tokyo and Seoul, but that too failed, as demonstrated by a meeting last month in Japan’s Nara Prefecture between Takaichi and South Korean President Lee Jae-myung, when the two appeared on stage together playing drums.
National Sun Yat-sen University’s Center for Japanese Studies director Kuo Yu-jen (郭育仁) said the election results could allow Takaichi to push forward a proposed ￥9.04 trillion (US$57.8 billion) defense budget. About one-third of the spending is targeted at islands south of Kyushu, considered strategically critical in a Taiwan-related contingency. The LDP’s supermajority ensures there would be no legislative obstruction.
Institute for National Defense and Security Research director Su Tzu-yun (蘇紫雲) said Takaichi’s stance aligns with the US’ national security strategy emphasizing collective defense and could enhance stability in the Taiwan Strait, as well as industrial cooperation.
China has said its policies would not change based on a single election. Still, the LDP’s win is likely to give Beijing pause. Japanese involvement in a Taiwan conflict could trigger Chinese attacks on Japanese territory, invoking US intervention under the US-Japan security treaty. Even the threat of Japanese and US participation could serve as a deterrent.
Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association Chief Representative Kazuyuki Katayama emphasized Taiwan’s importance to Japan’s survival and called for cooperation to strengthen supply chains.
“From the perspective of economic security, it is vital to build supply chains and cultivate talent from both sides, as well as from third countries,” Katayama said.
Collaboration in chips and artificial intelligence could also enhance both nations’ military capabilities.
Analysts note that Takaichi’s firm stance might raise tensions with Beijing, but China was already engaged in regional competition. Takaichi’s efforts to strengthen the JSDF are arguably long overdue. China has increased transits through the Miyako Strait, conducted drills with Russia in the Sea of Japan, and questioned Japan’s sovereignty over Okinawa Prefecture. During military drills in 2022 following then-US House of Representatives speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, China fired rockets into waters near Okinawa.
Japan has moved to protect its islands through radar and missile-defense deployments. It sees threats to Taiwan as threats to itself.
Takaichi has signaled that Japan and Taiwan should work together on defense, supply-chain resilience and democratic values, and some have suggested her administration might pursue an economic partnership agreement with Taiwan. Lai and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs have expressed a strong desire to deepen practical cooperation.
However, given rising Sino-Japanese tensions and the Chinese Nationalist Party’s (KMT) desire for closer ties with Beijing, it remains uncertain whether Taiwan’s cross-party legislators can reach consensus on Japanese cooperation. Enchanted to see friends as foes and foes as friends, the KMT stumbles toward danger. Its stated goal is to avoid war, yet a closer partnership with Japan might be the surest path to achieving that aim.
KMT Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun’s (鄭麗文) recent visit to Beijing and her upcoming visit to Washington will serve as a high-level test of her diplomatic mettle. In Beijing, Cheng was received with symbolic gestures, a warm reception, and high-level access. In Washington, she will receive far less pomp and far sharper questions about the KMT’s vision for the future of Taiwan. Her challenge will be to persuade Washington that the KMT’s engagement with China can coexist with strong deterrence. Cheng’s April 7-12 visit to mainland China coincided with an intense period of conflict in Iran. Despite the strategic significance of Cheng’s trip,
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