Thailand is falling behind its peers in Asia — and today’s election is unlikely to stop that slide.
Repeated coups, court interventions and short-lived governments have left a country that was once a regional powerhouse trailing competitors such as Vietnam. This is not due to a lack of talent or capital. It is because the system protects entrenched interests at the expense of long-term reforms. Politicians have repeatedly failed to deliver the remedies needed to lift growth and create jobs.
No party is expected to win an outright majority in the election, making a coalition government likely. The cost of this instability is borne by ordinary citizens, struggling with surging household debt, stagnant wages and fewer quality jobs for younger workers. Many young Thais are losing hope in a system that has produced 10 prime ministers over the past two decades.
Thailand has been shaped by a tug-of-war between parties tied to the conservative royalist-military nexus, and those that challenge them. Citizens keep demanding change, only to see the movements they have backed constrained through the intervention of unelected institutions. The nation of about 70 million must find a way to break out of this doom loop.
Those seeking reform could have a new opening. Alongside the election, voters will also be asked whether a new constitution should replace a 2017 charter that was drafted by a military-appointed committee. Critics argue the current one weakens democratic checks and balances, which is borne out by the years of policy paralysis. The country has had about 20 constitutions since 1932. Constantly redrafting is hardly a cure-all, although maintaining the “status quo” is not an option either.
The contest is shaping up as a two-way race between Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul’s ruling Bhumjaithai Party, which is supported by the conservative establishment, and the People’s Party, the successor of the pro-democracy group Move Forward. It had won the most seats in the 2023 election, only to be blocked from forming a government by the military-appointed Thai Senate. It was later dissolved by the courts. For many Thais, the episode only served to underline that winning votes does not guarantee the right to govern.
Pheu Thai, the populist party aligned with former Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, is also competing. However, it has entered the race under a cloud of controversy. The billionaire has dominated politics for much of the past two decades, while his daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra — herself a former prime minister — was dismissed by the Thai Constitutional Court last year after it found her guilty of ethical misconduct.
Renewed tensions along the Thai-Cambodian border have also shaped this election campaign. Clashes have sharpened nationalist sentiment and boosted influence for the military, a key player in the political landscape.
While peers such as Vietnam have steadily attracted manufacturing and technology-linked investment, Thailand is struggling. The IMF has warned of mounting challenges, including US tariffs that threaten exports and tourism — once a pillar of growth — that has yet to fully regain momentum after the COVID-19 pandemic. The fund expects growth this year of about 1.6 percent, among the weakest in Southeast Asia.
None of these problems are new — yet they remained largely unaddressed. A political system that repeatedly produces fragile governments, invites judicial intervention and rewards short-term coalition bargaining is ill-equipped to deliver the sustained reform Thailand needs.
The contrast with Vietnam is revealing. Hanoi has just emerged from a party congress cementing enviable political stability, helping to provide much needed jobs for young workers to move up value chains. Thailand remains heavily reliant on tourism and old-school manufacturing, ill-suited for long-term growth.
Even if a stable coalition emerges from the election — and that is a big if — none of this can be fixed overnight. Investors are cautious about committing capital in a country where policy direction can shift without warning.
Policymakers need to focus less on short-term fixes and more on productivity. Reforming the education sector to prepare workers for an artificial intelligence-driven economy should be top of that list. Easing long-standing constraints on small and medium-sized businesses, broadening the tax base and simplifying regulation would also help to restore confidence.
However, without constitutional change, economic reform would remain fragile. Thailand’s vote would almost certainly produce a government. Whether it produces solutions to keep the nation from falling further behind its neighbors is far less clear.
Karishma Vaswani is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Asia politics with a special focus on China. Previously, she was the BBC’s lead Asia presenter and worked for the BBC across Asia for two decades. This column reflects the personal views of the author and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
After more than a year of review, the National Security Bureau on Monday said it has completed a sweeping declassification of political archives from the Martial Law period, transferring the full collection to the National Archives Administration under the National Development Council. The move marks another significant step in Taiwan’s long journey toward transitional justice. The newly opened files span the architecture of authoritarian control: internal security and loyalty investigations, intelligence and counterintelligence operations, exit and entry controls, overseas surveillance of Taiwan independence activists, and case materials related to sedition and rebellion charges. For academics of Taiwan’s White Terror era —
On Feb. 7, the New York Times ran a column by Nicholas Kristof (“What if the valedictorians were America’s cool kids?”) that blindly and lavishly praised education in Taiwan and in Asia more broadly. We are used to this kind of Orientalist admiration for what is, at the end of the day, paradoxically very Anglo-centered. They could have praised Europeans for valuing education, too, but one rarely sees an American praising Europe, right? It immediately made me think of something I have observed. If Taiwanese education looks so wonderful through the eyes of the archetypal expat, gazing from an ivory tower, how
China has apparently emerged as one of the clearest and most predictable beneficiaries of US President Donald Trump’s “America First” and “Make America Great Again” approach. Many countries are scrambling to defend their interests and reputation regarding an increasingly unpredictable and self-seeking US. There is a growing consensus among foreign policy pundits that the world has already entered the beginning of the end of Pax Americana, the US-led international order. Consequently, a number of countries are reversing their foreign policy preferences. The result has been an accelerating turn toward China as an alternative economic partner, with Beijing hosting Western leaders, albeit
During the long Lunar New Year’s holiday, Taiwan has shown several positive developments in different aspects of society, hinting at a hopeful outlook for the Year of the Horse, but there are also significant challenges that the country must cautiously navigate with strength, wisdom and resilience. Before the holiday break, Taiwan’s stock market closed at a record 10,080.3 points and the TAIEX wrapped up at a record-high 33,605.71 points, while Taipei and Washington formally signed the Taiwan-US Agreement on Reciprocal Trade that caps US tariffs on Taiwanese goods at 15 percent and secures Taiwan preferential tariff treatment. President William Lai (賴清德) in
RSS