During the long Lunar New Year’s holiday, Taiwan has shown several positive developments in different aspects of society, hinting at a hopeful outlook for the Year of the Horse, but there are also significant challenges that the country must cautiously navigate with strength, wisdom and resilience.
Before the holiday break, Taiwan’s stock market closed at a record 10,080.3 points and the TAIEX wrapped up at a record-high 33,605.71 points, while Taipei and Washington formally signed the Taiwan-US Agreement on Reciprocal Trade that caps US tariffs on Taiwanese goods at 15 percent and secures Taiwan preferential tariff treatment.
President William Lai (賴清德) in his Lunar New Year address pledged to continue strengthening national defense and steadily advance economic development. He also outlined several welfare programs that have taken effect this year, including increased childbirth benefits and maternity subsidies, and approved raises in monthly allowance for senior farmers and monthly national pension benefits.
The Taiwan Space Agency announced that the Formosat-8A “Chi Po-lin Satellite,” Taiwan’s first domestically produced optical remote sensing satellite constellation, launched on Nov. 29 last year, has delivered results beyond expectations.
Emergency room overcrowding seen last Lunar New Year was avoided by the Ministry of Health and Welfare’s preparedness planning and incentive policies, while hospital visits for flu-like illness were relatively low, likely due to the record-high flu vaccine coverage at the start of the flu season.
Taiwan has also been free of African swine fever (ASF) cases since an outbreak in Taichung in October last year, and after a series of inspections, disinfection and policy changes, the agricultural ministry re-applied on Saturday to the World Organization for Animal Health for ASF-free status.
However, the government’s signed agreements, development policies and social welfare programs still require the backing of the opposition-led Legislative Yuan, where partisan polarization and legislative gridlock have intensified in the past year, creating uncertainties and stalling reforms. As the new legislative session opens tomorrow, effective solutions to break the stalemate are urgently needed.
The optimistic news is that after the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) jointly blocked a proposed NT$1.25 trillion (US$39.66 billion) special defense budget bill 10 times from review since November last year, drawing international attention and concerns from US lawmakers, Legislative Speaker Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜) finally said it would be a top priority when the legislature reconvenes. TPP founding chairman Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) also called for the government’s and the opposition’s bills to be deliberated and reviewed together.
Although the Legislative Yuan unprecedentedly refused to review the annual government budget for this year, it has invited Premier Cho Jung-tai (卓榮泰) and Cabinet members to report on the US trade agreement and its impact, and answer questions by lawmakers on Tuesday next week. The president has also invited the heads of the five branches of government to the Presidential Office.
Meanwhile, some power dynamics shifts in the Legislative Yuan might unfold in the upcoming days. Six of the TPP’s eight legislators-at-large, including its chairman caucus whip Huang Kuo-chang (黃國昌), who has worked intensively close with the KMT caucus, stepped down last month, and the TPP’s push for absentee voting and legalizing surrogacy have not gained full support from the KMT.
There is speculation that Deputy Legislative Speaker Johnny Chiang (江啟臣) could step down if he secures the Taichung mayoral candidate nomination.
There have been calls for the Democratic Progressive Party’s 25-year long-standing caucus whip Ker Chien-ming (柯建銘) to step down, after an unsuccessful mass recall movement to remove KMT legislators last year.
As the local elections would be held on Nov. 28, uncertainties linger over the cooperative dynamic between the KMT and TPP in the elections, while the government and voters should be aware of likely disinformation campaigns and infiltration from China.
On top of the legislative and election uncertainties, Taiwan also faces looming global challenges, including US President Donald Trump’s new 15 percent global tariff after the US Supreme Court on Friday struck down the sweeping tariffs imposed last year, which might foster more doubt and hesitation from opposition parties to pass the trade deal or the special defense bill.
Concerns have arisen after the White House on Friday confirmed that Trump would be meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) during an official visit to Beijing between March 31 to April 2, with some people worried that their talks could have a significant impact on Taiwan; the government must keep close contact with Washington and put more effort into strengthening public trust.
KMT Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun’s (鄭麗文) recent visit to Beijing and her upcoming visit to Washington will serve as a high-level test of her diplomatic mettle. In Beijing, Cheng was received with symbolic gestures, a warm reception, and high-level access. In Washington, she will receive far less pomp and far sharper questions about the KMT’s vision for the future of Taiwan. Her challenge will be to persuade Washington that the KMT’s engagement with China can coexist with strong deterrence. Cheng’s April 7-12 visit to mainland China coincided with an intense period of conflict in Iran. Despite the strategic significance of Cheng’s trip,
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