During the long Lunar New Year’s holiday, Taiwan has shown several positive developments in different aspects of society, hinting at a hopeful outlook for the Year of the Horse, but there are also significant challenges that the country must cautiously navigate with strength, wisdom and resilience.
Before the holiday break, Taiwan’s stock market closed at a record 10,080.3 points and the TAIEX wrapped up at a record-high 33,605.71 points, while Taipei and Washington formally signed the Taiwan-US Agreement on Reciprocal Trade that caps US tariffs on Taiwanese goods at 15 percent and secures Taiwan preferential tariff treatment.
President William Lai (賴清德) in his Lunar New Year address pledged to continue strengthening national defense and steadily advance economic development. He also outlined several welfare programs that have taken effect this year, including increased childbirth benefits and maternity subsidies, and approved raises in monthly allowance for senior farmers and monthly national pension benefits.
The Taiwan Space Agency announced that the Formosat-8A “Chi Po-lin Satellite,” Taiwan’s first domestically produced optical remote sensing satellite constellation, launched on Nov. 29 last year, has delivered results beyond expectations.
Emergency room overcrowding seen last Lunar New Year was avoided by the Ministry of Health and Welfare’s preparedness planning and incentive policies, while hospital visits for flu-like illness were relatively low, likely due to the record-high flu vaccine coverage at the start of the flu season.
Taiwan has also been free of African swine fever (ASF) cases since an outbreak in Taichung in October last year, and after a series of inspections, disinfection and policy changes, the agricultural ministry re-applied on Saturday to the World Organization for Animal Health for ASF-free status.
However, the government’s signed agreements, development policies and social welfare programs still require the backing of the opposition-led Legislative Yuan, where partisan polarization and legislative gridlock have intensified in the past year, creating uncertainties and stalling reforms. As the new legislative session opens tomorrow, effective solutions to break the stalemate are urgently needed.
The optimistic news is that after the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) jointly blocked a proposed NT$1.25 trillion (US$39.66 billion) special defense budget bill 10 times from review since November last year, drawing international attention and concerns from US lawmakers, Legislative Speaker Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜) finally said it would be a top priority when the legislature reconvenes. TPP founding chairman Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) also called for the government’s and the opposition’s bills to be deliberated and reviewed together.
Although the Legislative Yuan unprecedentedly refused to review the annual government budget for this year, it has invited Premier Cho Jung-tai (卓榮泰) and Cabinet members to report on the US trade agreement and its impact, and answer questions by lawmakers on Tuesday next week. The president has also invited the heads of the five branches of government to the Presidential Office.
Meanwhile, some power dynamics shifts in the Legislative Yuan might unfold in the upcoming days. Six of the TPP’s eight legislators-at-large, including its chairman caucus whip Huang Kuo-chang (黃國昌), who has worked intensively close with the KMT caucus, stepped down last month, and the TPP’s push for absentee voting and legalizing surrogacy have not gained full support from the KMT.
There is speculation that Deputy Legislative Speaker Johnny Chiang (江啟臣) could step down if he secures the Taichung mayoral candidate nomination.
There have been calls for the Democratic Progressive Party’s 25-year long-standing caucus whip Ker Chien-ming (柯建銘) to step down, after an unsuccessful mass recall movement to remove KMT legislators last year.
As the local elections would be held on Nov. 28, uncertainties linger over the cooperative dynamic between the KMT and TPP in the elections, while the government and voters should be aware of likely disinformation campaigns and infiltration from China.
On top of the legislative and election uncertainties, Taiwan also faces looming global challenges, including US President Donald Trump’s new 15 percent global tariff after the US Supreme Court on Friday struck down the sweeping tariffs imposed last year, which might foster more doubt and hesitation from opposition parties to pass the trade deal or the special defense bill.
Concerns have arisen after the White House on Friday confirmed that Trump would be meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) during an official visit to Beijing between March 31 to April 2, with some people worried that their talks could have a significant impact on Taiwan; the government must keep close contact with Washington and put more effort into strengthening public trust.
Minister of Labor Hung Sun-han (洪申翰) on April 9 said that the first group of Indian workers could arrive as early as this year as part of a memorandum of understanding (MOU) between the Taipei Economic and Cultural Center in India and the India Taipei Association. Signed in February 2024, the MOU stipulates that Taipei would decide the number of migrant workers and which industries would employ them, while New Delhi would manage recruitment and training. Employment would be governed by the laws of both countries. Months after its signing, the two sides agreed that 1,000 migrant workers from India would
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Japan’s imminent easing of arms export rules has sparked strong interest from Warsaw to Manila, Reuters reporting found, as US President Donald Trump wavers on security commitments to allies, and the wars in Iran and Ukraine strain US weapons supplies. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s ruling party approved the changes this week as she tries to invigorate the pacifist country’s military industrial base. Her government would formally adopt the new rules as soon as this month, three Japanese government officials told Reuters. Despite largely isolating itself from global arms markets since World War II, Japan spends enough on its own
When 17,000 troops from the US, the Philippines, Australia, Japan, Canada, France and New Zealand spread across the Philippine archipelago for the Balikatan military exercise, running from tomorrow through May 8, the official language would be about interoperability, readiness and regional peace. However, the strategic subtext is becoming harder to ignore: The exercises are increasingly about the military geography around Taiwan. Balikatan has always carried political weight. This year, however, the exercise looks different in ways that matter not only to Manila and Washington, but also to Taipei. What began in 2023 as a shift toward a more serious deterrence posture
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