Jim Geraghty, senior political columnist for the National Review, on Wednesday published an op-ed in the Washington Post discussing whether US President Donald Trump might abandon Taiwan. He interpreted the Taiwan-US tariff negotiations and restructuring of the semiconductor supply chain as “slightly ominous” signals for Taiwan’s security.
At first glance, the article appears to express concern about Taiwan’s future — however, in reality, it relies on an outdated security framework that not only misreads Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co’s (TSMC) role, but overlooks the true core of security in the Taiwan Strait.
In the article, Geraghty reduces Taiwan’s security to the simplistic question of whether the so-called “silicon shield” is weakening and argues that once the US achieves “semiconductor independence” by 2029, Taiwan’s strategic value would decline accordingly. This notion fundamentally misunderstands TSMC’s business model and the logic of its global footprint.
TSMC’s investments in the US do not represent an exodus from Taiwan, nor do they entail that core technologies would be leaked. Rather, they are capacity allocations necessary to meet the growth of global demand and enhance supply chain resilience.
Even absent US fabs, TSMC would still expand investment in Japan, Germany or other regions. What Geraghty fails to understand is that the most critical elements — process research-and-development, management systems, and accumulated knowledge — remain firmly anchored in Taiwan. The very essence of the silicon shield has never been shaken.
Furthermore, Taiwan’s security has never relied solely on TSMC. Security is a complex concept encompassing economic, military and political dimensions. Even if the importance of semiconductors were to diminish, that would in no way imply that the US would lose its motivation to deter China. Any conflict in the Taiwan Strait would generate massive spillover effects that would severely impact neighboring countries such as Japan, South Korea and the Philippines, inflicting serious damage on the global economy and US strategic interests. The idea that the US would simply stand by and watch from across the ocean is untenable.
This is precisely the key assessment that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has repeatedly expressed. Moreover, the latest US National Security Strategy report made it abundantly clear that Taiwan matters to the US not merely because of semiconductors, but because Taiwan occupies a critical node in the first island chain, directly impacting the overall architecture of US Indo-Pacific security.
Finally — and most often deliberately overlooked — is that regardless of how US attitudes might shift, China’s ambition to annex Taiwan has never changed. What Taiwanese truly need to earnestly discuss is not endless speculation over whether the US “would come to our rescue,” but how the international community could reduce China’s incentives to use force, and how Taiwan itself could continue to strengthen its defense capabilities, enhance societal resilience and forge consensus across the political spectrum.
Placing focus on conjecture surrounding the will of other countries would only push Taiwan into a position of passivity and anxiety, ultimately weakening our judgement and ability to take action when confronting real threats.
Wang Hung-jen is a professor in National Cheng Kung University’s Department of Political Science.
Translated by Kyra Gustavsen
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