Among the many goals of the US military operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro on Jan. 3 was to send China a message: Stay away from the Americas.
For at least two decades, Beijing has sought to build influence in Latin America, not only to pursue economic opportunities, but also to gain a strategic foothold on the doorstep of its top geopolitical rival.
China’s progress — from satellite tracking stations in Argentina and a port in Peru to economic support for Venezuela — has been an irritant for successive US administrations, including that of US President Donald Trump.
Several US administration officials told Reuters that Trump’s move against Maduro was intended in part to counter China’s ambitions and Beijing’s days of leveraging debt to get cheap oil from Venezuela were “over.”
Trump made the message explicit on Friday last week, expressing discomfort with China and Russia as a “next-door neighbor,” in a meeting with oil executives.
“I told China and I told Russia: ‘We get along with you very well, we like you very much, we don’t want you there, you’re not gonna be there,’” Trump said.
Now, he will tell China that “we are open for business” and that they can “buy all the oil they want from us there or in the United States,” he added.
The success of the early-morning raid on Jan. 3, in which US commandos swept into Caracas and grabbed the Venezuelan president and his wife, was a blow to China’s interests and prestige. The air defenses that US forces quickly disabled had been supplied by China and Russia, and Trump said 30 million to 50 million barrels of oil under sanctions, much of it previously bound for Chinese ports, will now be sent to the US.
Analysts say Maduro’s capture exposed Beijing’s limited ability to exert its will in the Americas.
The attack exposed the gulf between China’s “great-power rhetoric and its real reach” in the western hemisphere, said Craig Singleton, a China expert at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank.
“Beijing can protest diplomatically, but it cannot protect partners or assets once Washington decides to apply direct pressure,” Singleton said.
In a statement to Reuters, the Chinese embassy in Washington said it rejected what it called the US’ “unilateral, illegal and bullying acts.”
“China, and Latin American and Caribbean countries maintain friendly exchanges and cooperation. No matter how the situation may evolve, we will continue to be a friend and partner,” said Liu Pengyu (劉鵬宇), the embassy’s spokesman.
The White House did not respond to a request for comment, but one administration official said that “China should be concerned about their position in the Western Hemisphere,” adding that its partners in the region increasingly realize China cannot protect them.
The Trump administration’s policy toward Beijing appears contradictory, with concessions aimed at calming a trade war on one hand and more assertive US support for Taiwan on the other.
The Venezuela operation appeared to tilt US policy in a more hawkish direction.
Indeed, the timing of the US attack amplified Beijing’s embarrassment.
Just hours before being toppled, Maduro met with China’s special envoy for Latin America, Qiu Xiaoqi (邱小琪), in Caracas, his last public appearance before becoming a US captive.
The meeting, staged on camera even as US military forces were secretly poised to launch their operation, suggested that Beijing was blindsided, another US official said.
“If they knew, they wouldn’t have gone so publicly,” the second official told Reuters.
For years, Beijing poured money into Venezuela’s oil refineries and infrastructure, providing an economic lifeline after the US and its allies tightened sanctions from 2017.
Along with Russia, China has also provided funding and equipment for Venezuela’s military, including radar arrays recently billed as able to detect advanced US military aircraft. Those systems did little to impede a raid that US officials boasted had been conducted without any losses.
“Any nation around the world with Chinese defense equipment is checking their air defenses and wondering how safe they actually are from the United States,” said Michael Sobolik, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Hudson Institute think tank.
“They are also noticing how China’s diplomatic assurances to Iran and Venezuela resulted in zero meaningful protection when the US military arrived,” Sobolik said.
China is now studying what went wrong with those defenses so they can shore up their own systems, a person briefed on intelligence about Beijing’s response said.
China might soon be under pressure elsewhere in the region. It has sought to increase its influence in Cuba and the US suspects that Beijing runs an intelligence-gathering operation there.
China denies that, but last year pledged better intelligence sharing with Cuba.
In the days after the Venezuela operation, Trump said that US military intervention in Cuba, which has suffered from the loss of Venezuelan oil, was likely unnecessary because it appeared ready to fall on its own.
The Trump administration also continues to push Chinese companies away from port operations around the Panama Canal, the critical waterway linking the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.
A US Department of State official said that the US “remains concerned” about Chinese influence near the canal, but appreciates Panama’s actions to curb this, including by exiting Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative and auditing the Panama ports concession under contract to Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison.
While China might be on the back foot in the region, analysts caution that extended US military involvement in Venezuela or deterioration in the security situation there could open a door for Beijing to reassert itself.
Daniel Russel, a former senior State Department official now with the Washington-based Asia Society Policy Institute, said that the dramatic shift in Washington under Trump from a rule-of-law posture to a “spheres-of-influence logic focused on the western hemisphere” could play into China’s hands.
“Beijing wants Washington to accept that Asia is in China’s sphere and no doubt hopes that the US will get bogged down in Venezuela,” Russel said.
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