Following the US’ stunning 140-minute operation to capture then-Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro and his wife on Saturday last week, there are ripples of concern on whether China would follow suit and take action against Taiwan and its leaders.
The US Department of Justice in 2020 indicted Maduro on charges of transnational cocaine trafficking, narcoterrorism, money laundering and cooperation with armed gangs that endanger the security of the US and its citizens. The US does not recognize the legitimacy of Maduro’s administration, following the widely disputed 2024 presidential vote that international observers described as fraudulent.
Amid debates on whether the US’ strike on Venezuela violated international norms, Washington has defended the operation as “a surgical law enforcement operation facilitated by the US military against two fugitives of American justice,” not targeting the land or people of Venezuela.
What has drawn wide attention is the operation’s manifestation of US President Donald Trump’s administration’s so-called “Donroe Doctrine” — a reassertion of the 19th-century Monroe Doctrine that opposes foreign interference in the western hemisphere. Washington is now focused on the expansionism of its major rivals — China and Russia— especially on countering growing Chinese infiltration and influence in the US’ “backyard.”
The US National Security Strategy report released last month has already stressed the country’s priority and focus: defending US interests by restoring the nation’s pre-eminence in the western hemisphere, and competing with China economically and militarily.
In Taiwan, the US operation has triggered concerns whether China would take similar actions against the nation. However, from Beijing’s perspective, the US action stands as a clear warning that Chinese leaders need to be more prudent about aggression against Taiwan. Any military move to change the “status quo” in Taiwan Strait would definitely affect US interests in the first island chain and the Asia-Pacific region, which Washington would defend with all options, including military force.
The Venezuela strike has also shown the US’ capabilities for cross-regional projection and military joint operations, as well as the Trump administration’s efficient decisionmaking and determination to defend national interests. It further bore out the superiority of US military forces, as the Chinese and Russian-made weapons and air-defense systems that Venezuela purchased and relied on for defense proved ineffective against military intrusion.
National security officials have said that “the US strike in Venezuela should be a powerful deterrent to Beijing aggression, and a timely reminder of the US’ ability to defeat militaries equipped with Chinese-made weapons.”
Taiwan ranked 22nd in a Global Fire Power ranking, possessing more advanced military forces and defense weapons than Venezuela, which placed 50th. Pundits have said that China is unlikely to succeed in capturing Taiwan’s leaders, because “Taiwan operates a much more extensive and elaborate air defense network.” Given a sound democratic system, any operation to remove Taiwan’s leader would not cripple the nation’s continuous governance and operation.
Chinese aggression had never and will never be restrained by international regulations. However, any decision it makes would not be focused on Taiwan alone, as it has to take into account moves and deterrence by the US and its allies, and how much an invasion or military confrontation across the Taiwan Strait could cost it.
Although China is unlikely to change its Taiwan policy in response to the Venezuela strike, Taiwan needs to learn from the US operation and upgrade its defense system and asymmetric weapons for advanced, precise and efficient national defense.
As the Trump administration has approved a historical amount of arms sales to Taiwan and passed bills to enhance cooperation in military training and arms production, opposition legislators should put national security ahead of political confrontation and work with the executive branch to speed up approval of the defense budget to show Taiwan’s determination to bolster its self-defense.
One thing that should not be overlooked is the intelligence and espionage network in Venezuela that contributed largely to the success of the US operation. Faced with China’s escalating “gray zone” tactics and cognitive warfare, Taiwan should remain alert and contain the pro-China forces and espionage networks within the nation that seek to undermine national security.
Taiwanese should unite to demonstrate a collective determination to safeguard the nation’s sovereignty and democracy instead of relying on external aid for security. Determination and preparedness for self-
defense are the best deterrence against all threats.
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