Beijing has come out in support of incoming Chinese Nationalist Party’s (KMT) chairwoman Cheng Li-wun (鄭麗文), particularly her call for Taiwanese to proudly say “I am Chinese.” It marks a shift in their Taiwan strategy, moving away from military threats and toward the infiltration of institutions and manipulation of narratives.
The Republic of China is downplayed as a nation, and the democratic process is used as a tool for the legitimization of a pro-Chinese government. There is a Taiwanese role to play in promoting “one China, two systems.” The risk of Weimarization is real — democratic structures are being wielded by anti-democratic forces to erode Taiwan’s resilience and sovereignty.
It is the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) long-term goal to make Taiwan into another Hong Kong with a system of government that follows Beijing’s desires without being subject to direct rule. A minority of voices in opposition might serve as a front for democracy, but ultimately would not encroach on Beijing’s “long arm” of control.
A strategy of soft unification is less likely to incite a crisis or US intervention, but still undermines Taiwan as a stronghold of democracy and support for the US narrative ambition for freedom in the Indo-Pacific region.
The “Hong Kongification” of Taiwan would lead to legislative and judicial erosion, marginalization of social movements, and media suppression, driving a degradation of democratic institutions and ultimately the imposition of a quasi-unification model under CCP terms.
It would not only affect Taiwan, but also be an attack on the free order of the broader Western Pacific. If the first island chain fractures, US military capacity for reconnaissance and cooperative intelligence operations around Taiwan is likely to be interrupted — Japan’s line of defense and the situation in the South and East China Seas would tilt in Beijing’s favor.
For the US to fail to notice or act would mean facing geopolitical defeat without a fight. If Taiwan’s political system buckles, it is the beginning of democracy’s retreat from the Indo-Pacific region and the supplanting of US democratic ideals with Beijing’s peaceful unification rhetoric. The White House is not just a leader of a military alliance, but a representative for democracy. It must be strategic and forward-thinking. A critical measure would be to establish diplomatic relations with Taiwan, which would provide meaningful support for its institutional security.
The KMT chair election was the typical reshuffling of a political party — it was a watershed moment for Taiwanese democracy. If President William Lai (賴清德) can muster an effective strategy to regain control of the narrative, resist the infiltration of domestic discourse, and prevent total system failure, Taiwan might become a beacon for democracy.
If the White House can keep in step and offer measures for the protection of democratic institutions, it would not only serve to defend Taiwan, but also stabilize the wider regional order. Conversely, if nothing is done, Taiwan is set to face the same fate as Hong Kong and watch as its democracy is swallowed up at the ballot box while the Indo-Pacific region’s defenses crumble.
Is the White House ready? Alarm bells are beginning to sound.
Joshua Tin is an economist.
Translated by Gilda Knox Streader
China’s supreme objective in a war across the Taiwan Strait is to incorporate Taiwan as a province of the People’s Republic. It follows, therefore, that international recognition of Taiwan’s de jure independence is a consummation that China’s leaders devoutly wish to avoid. By the same token, an American strategy to deny China that objective would complicate Beijing’s calculus and deter large-scale hostilities. For decades, China has cautioned “independence means war.” The opposite is also true: “war means independence.” A comprehensive strategy of denial would guarantee an outcome of de jure independence for Taiwan in the event of Chinese invasion or
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