Foreign media have reported that US President Donald Trump might visit South Korea at the end of next month to attend the APEC leaders’ summit, where he could meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平).
This potential meeting would likely revolve around three central themes.
First, the establishment of economic guardrails. Over the past two years, both powers have implemented tit-for-tat export controls on rare earths, semiconductors, high-tech equipment and raw materials, making the weaponization of supply chains an entrenched reality. To reduce uncertainty and tame market volatility, the two sides are expected to exclude nonsensitive goods from the discussions and pursue a framework for transparent, predictable restrictions.
Second, cooperation on stopping the flow of fentanyl to the US might be back on the table.
Third, with crisis management channels restored, the summit might seek to institutionalize dialogue between their armed forces, codify rules of engagement for air and maritime encounters, and enhance direct policy hotlines.
For Taiwan, the meeting comes with great risk.
Beijing is likely to pressure Washington into shifting its rhetoric from not supporting Taiwanese independence to actively opposing it, which would help China legitimize its sovereignty narrative.
Taiwan must avoid becoming a pawn on Trump and Xi’s chessboard. The nation’s diplomatic language must clearly distinguish between “not supporting” and “opposing” Taiwanese independence.
From a broader strategic perspective, US support for Taiwan is not only rooted in shared values and legal commitments, but also in Taiwan’s irreplaceable role in the global high-tech supply chain.
Taiwan’s exports to the US reached US$78.9 billion in the first half of this year, while imports from the US was US$23.7 billion, making Taiwan the US’ sixth-largest trading partner, data released in July showed.
Therefore, supporting Taiwan is not merely about fulfilling the US’ duty under the Taiwan Relations Act, but is a core US interest in safeguarding its technological edge and supply chain resilience.
In response to doubts over Taiwanese’s willingness to fight in a Chinese attack, a report by the US think tank RAND Corp rebutted such claims, attributing defense mobilization shortcomings to political polarization rather than a lack of resolve. Multiple polls showed that more than two-thirds of Taiwanese would defend their homeland in the event of an attack, with approval for implementing conscription surpassing even that of South Korea.
Taiwan needs to bridge the political divide between central and local governments, foster interparty consensus and enhance the nation’s capacity for a comprehensive social mobilization.
While the Trump-Xi summit might not reset US-China relations, it could install a few guardrails in an otherwise turbulent rivalry, making bilateral interactions slightly more predictable.
However, as China, Russia and North Korea deepen their strategic alignment — with Beijing and Pyongyang continuing to aid Moscow in its invasion of Ukraine — regional security is becoming more precarious.
Against this backdrop, the US must increasingly rely on a Taiwan that is capable of defending itself, indispensable to global industry and steadfast in its democratic values.
Therefore, the government must translate the nation’s defense and industrial resilience measures into a set of “verifiable benchmarks” by next month, and demonstrate Taiwan’s resolve with measured diplomatic signals.
Liao Ming-hui is an assistant researcher at the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research.
Translated by Lenna Veronica Suminski
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