Taiwan is projected to lose a working-age population of about 6.67 million people in two waves of retirement in the coming years, as the nation confronts accelerating demographic decline and a shortage of younger workers to take their place, the Ministry of the Interior said.
Taiwan experienced its largest baby boom between 1958 and 1966, when the population grew by 3.78 million, followed by a second surge of 2.89 million between 1976 and 1982, ministry data showed.
In 2023, the first of those baby boom generations — those born in the late 1950s and early 1960s — began to enter retirement, triggering a sharp contraction in the labor force, it said.
Photo: CNA
The pressures on the economy are compounded by persistently low birthrates, which have produced no more than 1.6 million new entrants into the working-age population, leaving a shortfall of more than 2 million workers compared with the number retiring, the ministry said.
For the purposes of the study, “working-age youths” were defined as people aged 15 and older, it added.
The first wave is expected to be followed by a second wave in about 16 years, when those born in the late 1970s and early 1980s reach retirement age, with the two waves together projected to cut 6.67 million people from the working-age population, the ministry said.
Another compounding factor is the low labor force participation rate among older Taiwanese. Only 10 percent of people aged 65 or older remain employed, compared with 25 to 35 percent in South Korea, Japan and Singapore, it said.
Taiwanese also spend longer in education, delaying their entry into the workforce, with labor force participation among those aged between 15 and 29 at just 38 percent, well below the 60 percent seen in Europe and the US, it added.
Citing a separate study by the Ministry of Labor, it said that more than 196,000 Taiwanese university and college graduates have yet to register for labor insurance, excluding those serving in the military, working overseas or engaged in farming.
This indicates that a significant number of young Taiwanese are either looking and failing to find employment, or idling at home, it added.
Meanwhile, the nation continues to experience population decline.
Government data released last month showed Taiwan’s population was 23,337,936 at the end of July, the 19th consecutive month of contraction.
The figure was down 8,805 from June and 71,387 from a year earlier, the data showed.
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