The Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy’s (PLAN) third aircraft carrier, the Fujian, would pose a steep challenge to Taiwan’s ability to defend itself against a full-scale invasion, a defense expert said yesterday.
Institute of National Defense and Security Research analyst Chieh Chung (揭仲) made the comment hours after the PLAN confirmed the carrier recently passed through the Taiwan Strait to conduct “scientific research tests and training missions” in the South China Sea.
China has two carriers in operation — the Liaoning and the Shandong — with the Fujian undergoing sea trials.
Photo: Xinhua via AP
Although the PLAN needs time to train the Fujian’s air wing and integrate the ship into its carrier strike group, a third Chinese aircraft carrier would lead to a quantitative and qualitative shift in the cross-strait military balance, he said.
With a trio of carriers, the PLAN could simultaneously deploy a strike group in the seas east of Taiwan, train a strike group in the South China Sea and refit the remaining group at base, Chieh said.
This would upturn Taiwan’s long-held plans and assumptions about fighting a war with China, he added.
The Taiwan-US strategy of utilizing the Miyako Strait, Bashi Channel and Balintang Channel as chokepoints to stop the PLAN’s advance to the West Pacific could be nullified if a Chinese carrier was already patrolling beyond that line, he said.
A carrier strike group fighting outside these strategic waterways would have room to deploy a defensive formation, significantly degrading the effectiveness of Taiwanese anti-ship capabilities, Chieh said.
The navy’s force preservation plan depends on getting into tactical positions in the West Pacific upon detecting signs of an invasion, while the air force expects to be able to shelter its fighter jets in underground hangars in Hualien and Taitung, he said.
A Chinese carrier strike group lying in wait to Taiwan’s east would be able to engage Taiwanese navy vessels and outflank the eastern air bases from a direction not protected by the Central Mountain Range, Chieh said, adding that the Chinese armed forces would then have an opportunity to destroy the bulk of Taiwan’s sea and air power in the opening moves of a war.
The Fujian’s ability to launch fixed-wing airborne early warning and control systems (AWACS) is an upgrade from the Liaoning and Shandong, which rely on rotary-wing AWACS for defense, he said.
Assuming the Xian KJ-600 AWACS could be launched from the decks of the Fujian, it would be capable of establishing a 600km-deep defensive perimeter, compared with the Shandong’s range of between 185km and 400km, Chieh said.
Taiwan’s longest-range air-launched anti-ship missile is the AGM-84K SLAM-ER, which has a reach of 270km, so the fighter jet must be within 350km to 400km from the Fujian to mount an attack, he said.
That would put the launch platform well within the range of the Chinese carrier strike group’s combat air patrol and air defense systems, he added.
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