Former CIA director and retired US Army general David Petraeus on Monday participated in a forum hosted by the Hudson Institute think tank, at which he discussed lessons Taiwan can learn from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. As a close observer of the Ukraine war, Petraeus pointed out the deep influence the war has had on global military strategy — specifically in the Asia-Pacific region.
China is closely watching developments in Ukraine and drawing lessons from them, so it is crucial that Taiwan take note of three battlefield lessons and prepare.
The first lesson is: Deterrence must not fail. The key factor driving the outbreak of the Ukraine war was the failure of deterrence. Ukraine was inadequately prepared before the war and the international community did not provide sufficient military support in time. This led Russian President Vladimir Putin to believe that he could quickly reach his strategic objective, prompting the invasion.
Taiwan must learn that deterrence is more than merely showcasing military abilities. It also involves demonstrating a clear determination to defend and firm international cooperation and support. Taiwan must establish a defense posture that conveys its resolve to resist, while deepening defense cooperation with allies, to ensure deterrence power is sufficient to prevent a potential invasion.
Second, Taiwan must accelerate the modernization of its military and the deployment of uncrewed systems. The Ukraine war has illustrated that conflicts will be dominated by the use of uncrewed systems. From reconnaissance and strikes to logistical support, autonomous and automated technologies will play a key role. Taiwan could learn from Ukraine’s innovations in this area — using drones for precise strikes on Russian armored vehicles, deploying uncrewed maritime systems to sink enemy ships and utilizing smart drones to target key infrastructure.
Taiwan should make large-scale investments in such systems and explore algorithm-driven autonomous defense technologies to prepare for potential conflicts.
Third, Taiwan must bolster overall societal resilience and wartime preparedness. Being an island nation, Taiwan would face significant obstacles in receiving timely and feasible external support in the event of a conflict. Determining how to effectively stockpile strategic materials, improve the protection of critical infrastructure and diversify energy sources are critical issues that it must face. Ukraine has successfully maintained the continuity of its defense efforts by improving infrastructure defenses, pre-positioning strategic resources and establishing a robust social logistics network. Taiwan should comprehensively improve its energy resilience, conduct extensive inventory of its underground defense facilities, and consider how to address the potential energy disruptions and material shortages that would arise during a cross-strait conflict.
Only by thoroughly understanding the experiences from the battlefield in Ukraine and swiftly putting the lessons into practice can Taiwan ensure stable self-defense in an increasingly complex security environment.
Liao Ming-hui is an assistant researcher at the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research.
Translated by Kyra Gustavsen
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