As the latest deadline for TikTok to be sold or banned in the US approaches, next month could determine whether the app will continue to be a fixture on American phones or not.
A decline in fashion fads conceived by TikTok creators (think “cowboy core,” “office siren” and “coastal grandma”), means consumers and retailers would not be as affected as they would have been a year or so ago, when such viral “aesthetics” peaked on the video-sharing platform.
However, brands have their work cut out in responding to what has taken over since: lifestyle trends amplifying political, social and economic influences. After all, it is much harder to monetize “Recession Core,” the “Make America Great Again (MAGA) Woman” look and “Underconsumption.”
Illustration: Yusha
Super-speedy TikTok trends are best exemplified by the viral “Mob Wife” look from early last year, characterized by big fur coats and equally voluminous hair. Retailers responded by stocking more animal print and bold lipstick. This was one of many fleeting fashions that emerged in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic when TikTok really took off and dressing for short videos replaced “in real life” outfits.
It is not easy keeping up with so many flash-in-the-pan fads, from “Tomato Girl” to “Pilates Princess,” particularly as the economy darkens. Fatigue has set in, and consumers are now prioritizing their personal style over every new “core” and trend. That is trickier for brands to be part of, but they are tapping in — for example, through bag charms, which fashion and luxury brands have embraced, and Labubu dolls, playing into the need to express one’s identity through customization.
TikTok and Pinterest, the photo-pinning app, are also making valiant attempts to continue to shape fashion. “Castlecore” and “Medievalcore” are among the few aesthetics to break through recently, although they reflect the broader “pop girl” phenomenon in culture, as they are inspired by singer Chappell Roan’s adoption of chain mail and headwear. (They also demonstrate, as Kayla Marci, who writes the Haute Garbage Substack, told me, that Gen Z’s nostalgia has cycled through recent decades and is reaching ever further back.)
Yet of the more than 100 micro-trends tracked by market-intelligence company Trendalytics across social media, online search and e-commerce, 60 percent are declining while only 20 percent are gaining traction.
US users still spend more time per day on TikTok than Instagram, Facebook and Snapchat, according to data compiled by market intelligence and analytics platform Sensor Tower, but the moment when the platform became the epicenter of trend forecasting, with users naming new aesthetics at a frenetic pace, has passed. We have not really had a fashion narrative that has broken into the mainstream since Mob Wife.
There is one notable exception: the “Recession Core” trend, which includes making your own beauty products and finding hairstyles that need little maintenance. TikTok posts featuring “recession core” are increasing by more than 3,000 percent week on week, and average views of tagged videos are up about 1,000 percent week on week, data compiled by Trendalytics showed. This reflects the current obsession across society and finance with spotting recession indicators, from sardine-themed fashion (because the fish are cheap and filling) to longer hemlines (said to fall in tough times).
There are few, if any, actual products referencing the trend, underlining the challenges for brands of such online conversations coalescing around broader cultural, economic and political themes. These are far more difficult for retailers to navigate than having the right width of jeans leg or the latest fruit print dress.
Take “Boom Boom,” at the other extreme from “Recession Core,” which emphasizes 1980s-inspired excess, perhaps reflecting the US President Trump era’s embrace of money and power. The catwalks for fall featured fur, big shoulders, and at Prada SpA’s MiuMiu, even exaggerated bras.
While the minimalism of the past couple of years has been good for some luxury houses, such as Brunello Cucinelli SpA, Prada and LVMH’s Loro Piana, for others, such as Kering SA’s Gucci, it has been a disaster. Many companies would love to see a return to logos and more ostentatious dressing, but whether they would fully embrace conspicuous consumption — against the current backdrop of tariff-driven anxiety — is another matter.
Even more daunting are politically driven movements, beginning with “trad wife,” which espoused traditionally female roles, and morphing into the more overt MAGA Woman look, characterized by sheath dresses, high heels, flowing tresses and plumped-up lips. Creator Suzanne Lambert took this even further, parodying so-called “Republican Beauty,” far too pale concealer and clumpy mascara, racking up 6.4 million TikTok views in the process. Few brands have weighed in, despite the potential to sell products.
The “Mar-a-Lago face” has probably peaked, but given the fracturing of society, it might not be the last divisive trend to emerge. That presents a dilemma for companies. Yet Cassandra Napoli, head of marketing and events at trend forecaster WGSN, told me that consumers are increasingly prioritizing “ethics over aesthetics,” voting with their wallets and spending their time with businesses that reflect their values. “Not getting political will not be an option,” she said, even if it was a double-edged sword.
Perhaps the narrative that is most concerning for fashion and beauty companies is that of buying less, or nothing at all. Underconsumption has been gaining ground for the past year or so, showcasing a simpler life — for example, streamlining beauty regimes and wearing vintage clothes are in vogue right now. Brands can respond by focusing on fewer product lines, but more meaningful “hero” items or embracing vintage in their selections.
That is a hard pill to swallow if you believe the whole raison d’etre of the consumer economy is to sell. Making sure stores had enough leopard print and chunky gold jewelry to meet Mob Wife’s gaudy tastes feels almost quaint now.
Andrea Felsted is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering consumer goods and the retail industry. Previously, she was a reporter for the Financial Times. This column reflects the personal views of the author and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
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