China might accelerate its strategic actions toward Taiwan, the South China Sea and across the first island chain, after the US officially entered a military conflict with Iran, as Beijing would perceive Washington as incapable of fighting a two-front war, a military expert said yesterday.
The US’ ongoing conflict with Iran is not merely an act of retaliation or a “delaying tactic,” but a strategic military campaign aimed at dismantling Tehran’s nuclear capabilities and reshaping the regional order in the Middle East, said National Defense University distinguished adjunct lecturer Holmes Liao (廖宏祥), former McDonnell Douglas Aerospace representative in Taiwan.
If the US is committed to deploying ground troops to Iran, the conflict could escalate into a regional, or even a quasi-global war, he said.
Photo: Reuters
The real concern lies not in the potential collapse of the Iranian regime, but in the broader strategic cost: The US has once again became entangled in Middle East affairs, which could benefit China, he said.
After the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, the US poured vast defense and diplomatic resources into the global “war on terror,” stationing troops in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and parts of Africa for years. That prolonged focus delayed and weakened Washington’s Indo-Pacific strategy, he said.
During that window of distraction, China swiftly rose, leveraging globalization and Western capital to build up its economic and technological strength, while simultaneously advancing military modernization and global influence, he said.
Through projects such as the Belt and Road Initiative and the militarization of the South China Sea, China has shifted regional dynamics and heightened pressure on Taiwan, he said.
If the US is once again mired in a Middle East war, its ability to counter China would be further diminished, he added.
Beijing would recognize such vulnerability and might escalate strategic maneuvers against Taiwan, the South China Sea and the first island chain.
In China’s eyes, the deeper the US is drawn into the Middle East, the better it is for Beijing, he said.
On the other hand, National Defense and Security Research fellow Su Tzu-yun (蘇紫雲) said that the US military is unlikely to engage in a ground war between Iran and Israel.
Following initial airstrikes, strategic focus would quickly pivot back to the Indo-Pacific region, as China remains the true long-term threat to US national security, he said.
The US intervention in Iran aligns with US President Donald Trump’s overarching strategy, Su said.
Since his presidential campaign started, Trump has consistently been pushing for a swift resolution to the war in Ukraine, advocating for NATO to shoulder more responsibility so the US can refocus on confronting China in the Indo-Pacific region, he said.
Israel has previously used its conflict with Hamas to target Hezbollah and Syria, pushing back Russian and Chinese influence, he said.
Iran represents the final piece of that puzzle, he said.
If Iran’s military power is neutralized, the US can strategically consolidate in the Indo-Pacific region and concentrate all its resources against the Chinese military, he added.
The US military action in Iran is unlikely to involve large-scale ground operations, but would instead likely consist of rapid and precise missile and airstrikes, Su said.
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