US political scientist Francis Fukuyama, during an interview with the UK’s Times Radio, reacted to US President Donald Trump’s overturning of decades of US foreign policy by saying that “the chance for serious instability is very great.” That is something of an understatement.
Fukuyama said that Trump’s apparent moves to expand US territory and that he “seems to be actively siding with” authoritarian states is concerning, not just for Europe, but also for Taiwan.
He said that “if I were China I would see this as a golden opportunity” to annex Taiwan, and that every European country needs to think about collective self defense without relying on the US.
Friedrich Merz, poised to be the next German chancellor, has said that his “absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that we can achieve real independence from the USA, step by step,” and that Europe should potentially find a replacement for NATO.
Trump has only been in office for a little more than a month. They say a week is a long time in politics: Geopolitics is rarely upended in such a short amount of time.
For Taiwan, and especially since the world finally woke to the true nature of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) during the COVID-19 pandemic, there has been a discernible story arc largely in Taiwan’s favor, with like-minded nations, under US encouragement, voicing support for peace in the Taiwan Strait.
That arc has evaporated. Some voices, such as Fukuyama’s, are concerned about a collapse of the world order. Some, including a contributor on today’s page, James J. Y. Hsu (許正餘), see reason for optimism.
The point is that we have no idea what the future holds. Can Taiwan still depend on US backing in the face of aggression from the CCP?
US skepticism could previously be put down to a campaign strategy by the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and other pro-China forces; it has now become a more difficult position to refute.
For now at least, US presidents are limited to two terms in office; Trump only has four more years left. However, the current situation is a wake-up call for many nations around the world. There is a recognition that postwar Europe has been overreliant on the US for its security. That realization is not only overdue, it is possibly also too late.
Regional nations such as Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and Australia, all of whom had previously relied on the promise of US support, find themselves in a similar position. In the absence of assured support, this overdependence on one nation needs to be addressed.
This does not mean assuming a lack of US assistance, and one must also recognize that, for valid reasons, Taiwan is “not Ukraine,” and Trump does appear to be redirecting his attention from Europe to the Indo-Pacific region. However, it does add more urgency for Taiwan to bolster its ability to defend itself, possibly with more assured assistance from regional powers such as South Korea, Japan, the Philippines and Australia.
This will be difficult to achieve: Unlike Europe, East Asia has no established security architecture like NATO on which to build.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs says that US Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently reiterated US support for Taiwan in line with the Taiwan Relations Act and the “six assurances.”
However, we appear to be in uncharted territory: How the new reality plays out could go in Taiwan’s favor; it could equally lead to disaster.
There is a renewed urgency on planning for the nation’s long-term security in a new security environment, and nothing should be taken for granted.
Taiwanese pragmatism has long been praised when it comes to addressing Chinese attempts to erase Taiwan from the international stage. “Taipei” and the even more inaccurate and degrading “Chinese Taipei,” imposed titles required to participate in international events, are loathed by Taiwanese. That is why there was huge applause in Taiwan when Japanese public broadcaster NHK referred to the Taiwanese Olympic team as “Taiwan,” instead of “Chinese Taipei” during the opening ceremony of the Tokyo Olympics. What is standard protocol for most nations — calling a national team by the name their country is commonly known by — is impossible for
India is not China, and many of its residents fear it never will be. It is hard to imagine a future in which the subcontinent’s manufacturing dominates the world, its foreign investment shapes nations’ destinies, and the challenge of its economic system forces the West to reshape its own policies and principles. However, that is, apparently, what the US administration fears. Speaking in New Delhi last week, US Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau warned that “we will not make the same mistakes with India that we did with China 20 years ago.” Although he claimed the recently agreed framework
The Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR) on Wednesday last week announced it is launching investigations into 16 US trading partners, including Taiwan, under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 to determine whether they have engaged in unfair trade practices, such as overproduction. A day later, the agency announced a separate Section 301 investigation into 60 economies based on the implementation of measures to prohibit the importation of goods produced with forced labor. Several of Taiwan’s main trading rivals — including China, Japan, South Korea and the EU — also made the US’ investigation list. The announcements come
Taiwan is not invited to the table. It never has been, but this year, with the Philippines holding the ASEAN chair, the question that matters is no longer who gets formally named, it is who becomes structurally indispensable. The “one China” formula continues to do its job. It sets the outer boundary of official diplomatic speech, and no one in the region has a serious interest in openly challenging it. However, beneath the surface, something is thickening. Trade corridors, digital infrastructure, artificial intelligence (AI) cooperation, supply chains, cross-border investment: The connective tissue between Taiwan and ASEAN is quietly and methodically growing
RSS