Chinese military drills around Taiwan are likely to continue and escalate this year, which is wearing down the resources and response time of the military, the Guardian reported on Tuesday.
The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) hopes to force Taiwan into capitulation through coercive acts such as a blockade or quarantine, or punitive measures such as missile bombardments, the report said, citing retired admiral Lee Hsi-min (李喜明).
Failing that, China could attempt a full-scale invasion of Taiwan, which it might be ready to do within the next 10 years, he said.
China’s non-military tactics against Taiwan, including legal and cyberwarfare, disinformation campaigns, and the weaponization of diplomatic and trade relationships are “meaningless” as long as Taiwan does not surrender, Lee said.
However, the PLA’s incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone were acting to exhaust the nation’s response system, force mistakes and perhaps trigger an excuse to launch a blockade, he added.
China has always sought to “push the envelope” in terms of what non-military actions it can get away with before its adversaries react. It is unclear how the PLA would escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait short of enacting a blockade or quarantine, but it might send balloons or drones into airspace over Taiwan proper (so far, drones have only entered airspace over Kinmen County, and balloons have remained some distance off Taiwan’s coast). Such an escalation would not be unfathomable, since China has already sent weather balloons into airspace over the US, which is arguably more provocative than doing so over Taiwan.
So far, Taiwan has been vigilant in exercising restraint amid China’s incursions, avoiding justifying a military escalation by Beijing. However, maintaining such restraint could become harder if there are sensor-equipped balloons or drones hovering over Taiwan’s government buildings and military facilities.
Taiwan could meet China’s “gray zone” tactics halfway, making it harder for the PLA to conduct drills, and disturbing its balloon and drone activity. For example, the nation could fly drones into areas where the PLA’s fighter jets are flying. That would be less costly and would allow Taiwan to closely monitor the jets and possibly jam their radars. The drones could also potentially make PLA jets take evasive maneuvers, making the drills riskier. If the PLA were to attack the drones, Taiwan could say it was an act of escalation. The nation could also try to jam the sensors on the weather balloons or drones near the nation, or hack their computer systems and send false data back to China.
Taiwan could respond to cyberattacks in kind as well by hacking Chinese systems and sending them false data, or going on Chinese social media platforms to spread disinformation that would dampen the morale of the Chinese public and military.
As the adage goes, “the best defense is a good offense,” and China cannot point a finger at Taiwan for taking actions that it is engaging in on a regular basis. Taiwan need not even be alone in such efforts. Other countries could be invited to assist with cybersecurity in Taiwan as a means of gaining practical experience. Start-ups in friendly countries could also test their drone systems in the Taiwan Strait.
At the same time, the government could encourage countries to express opposition to Taiwan’s annexation and to promise to take action, including economic sanctions, in response to such a contingency. Beijing should be continuously reminded that the juice is not worth the squeeze. Annexing Taiwan would cost China much more than it would ever gain, and would result in its diplomatic and economic isolation.
Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) hopes to annex Taiwan to secure his legacy. Taipei must remind Beijing that annexation is not a feasible option, and it must take actions to deter China from escalating its “gray zone” tactics in the Taiwan Strait and beyond.
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