US president-elect Donald Trump is to return to the White House in January, but his second term would surely be different from the first. His Cabinet would not include former US secretary of state Mike Pompeo and former US national security adviser John Bolton, both outspoken supporters of Taiwan.
Trump is expected to implement a transactionalist approach to Taiwan, including measures such as demanding that Taiwan pay a high “protection fee” or requiring that Taiwan’s military spending amount to at least 10 percent of its GDP.
However, if the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) invades Taiwan, it is doubtful that Trump would dispatch US troops in its defense.
He has also vowed to repeal subsidies for the construction of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC) factories in the US and impose heavy tariffs on Taiwanese chips.
Trump’s policies, whether with regard to national security or the economy, would prove detrimental to Taiwan.
In light of this, Taiwan should take the following measures in response to Trump’s proposed policies:
First, to address national defense and US-Taiwan economic issues, President William Lai’s (賴清德) administration should make use of the US Congress, prominent think tanks, public opinion and other channels.
The government can approach the issues from angles of economic benefits and transactionalism — which Trump cares about the most — and allow him to understand one thing clearly.
Should his new policies cause Taiwan to be invaded by the CCP, it would harm US strategic interests and severely affect the US economy and industrial development, resulting in global economic damage, all costs that the US cannot afford.
Regarding the globalized economy, Taiwan holds a strategic position between the two main maritime passages connecting Northeast Asia and the South China Sea. The South China Sea is the primary energy supply route for Northeast Asian countries and an important shipping route to Europe and Africa. It is the maritime transportation and communications route maintaining Japan’s lifeline.
Taiwan is also an indispensable transit hub connecting Japan to India — Japan’s promotion of a high-tech corridor between New Delhi and Mumbai would be difficult to implement without Taiwan’s participation.
Additionally, Taiwan’s leading position in global high-tech industries allows it to provide the US with 90 percent of its low-cost, advanced chips. The US knows well that it would be unable to operate without Taiwan.
If Trump’s negligence results in a CCP invasion of Taiwan, the US and global economies would suffer heavy consequences; it could lead to a 2 percent or more decline in GDP. Japan’s maritime defense line and the shipping routes between Japan and Europe would fall into China’s hands. Furthermore, it would be a major hit to US strategic and economic interests in the Asia-Pacific region.
Such severe repercussions far outweigh the economic benefits Trump might gain from forcing Taiwan to pay a “protection fee.” The president-elect himself must consider them carefully.
Taiwan must make Trump understand that it is more vital than Ukraine and must not be abandoned. Without diligent Taiwanese working late into the night researching and manufacturing chips, or Taiwan’s important economic and strategic position in aiding and safeguarding US economic and industrial development, US strength and prosperity would be compromised.
Taiwan must stand tall and demand that Trump not force the country into excessive defense spending to prevent significant strain on social welfare and other public works. Otherwise, it could result in an opportunity for the CCP and greatly damage the US economy.
Taiwan is already gradually raising defense spending and would continue to pursue military procurement from the US. The government should take advantage of this opportunity to request the US sale of F-35 stealth jets, Aegis-capable ships, nuclear submarines and other advanced weapons.
The US does not have troops stationed in Taiwan, so it should not collect “protection fees.” Taiwan protects US economic and strategic interests. The US and Taiwan have a mutually beneficial — not unilateral — relationship.
If Trump wants Taiwan to pay a “protection fee,” Taiwan would gladly sign a mutual defense treaty with the US. Under such an agreement, the US could station troops in Taiwan in exchange for a defense fee.
The government should make Trump understand that Taiwan has not stolen the US’ semiconductor business. It is Taiwan’s contribution of advanced chips to US companies such as Nvidia and Apple that allows the US high-tech industry and economy to prosper.
If Trump insists on imposing tariffs on Taiwanese chips or cutting subsidies for the construction of TSMC fabs, the US’ high-tech industry, economy, national defense industry, auto industry and other sectors would be severely affected. It would ultimately be damaging for the US.
The Trump administration should think carefully before proceeding with its proposed Taiwan policies. Having just won the election, now is the perfect time for Trump and his incoming administration to make some necessary adjustments to avoid harming the US and others.
Michael Lin is a retired diplomat, formerly posted in the US.
Translated by Kyra Gustavsen
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