Thailand is facing yet another Groundhog Day. A prime minister was chosen by an elected parliament, only to be removed by a military coup or, as we saw last week, the Thai Constitutional Court. It is damaging for the country’s international reputation and hurts the prospects of a financial recovery for Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy.
This game of musical chairs is a stark reminder to Thais that their votes do not count, and that the kingdom’s politics is still controlled by vested interests who want to keep the status quo in place.
The first blow came when the court ordered the dissolution of the largest and most popular opposition group, the Move Forward Party, and banned its charismatic prime ministerial candidate Pita Limjaroenrat from political activities or running for public office for 10 years. The offense? Championing reforms to the lese majeste law that makes it a crime to defame, insult or threaten the king or his close family members. Human Rights Watch called the move “a severe blow to Thailand’s teetering efforts to restore democratic rule after years of military dictatorship.” The US Department of State echoed those concerns, saying the decision disenfranchised the more than 14 million Thais who voted for the Move Forward Party in last year’s election.
This was swiftly followed by the removal of prime minister Srettha Thavisin from the Pheu Thai Party, after the court found him guilty of an ethics violation. He was replaced with Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the 37-year-old daughter of a man Thais are very familiar with — former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Thaksin was in court himself on Monday, facing an investigation into whether he had insulted the monarchy under the lese majeste law. The former prime minister has denied the charges. This, after he received a royal amnesty that ended his commuted one-year sentence in separate corruption cases.
Anyone speaking out against the establishment is a target, said Pavin Chachavalpongpun, a professor at the Center for Southeast Asian Studies at Kyoto University.
The prominent academic has been living outside Thailand since 2003, but if he were to go back, he would be considered a political prisoner. Authorities canceled his passport in 2014, issuing an arrest warrant for him after he declined to return to Bangkok for “attitude adjustment.”
The public space for discussions on democracy is shrinking, because it no longer consists of representative politics, he said.
“When you have an election, but the election doesn’t answer the call of the voters, and you can’t discuss sensitive issues in parliament, you can no longer look at the country and say it is a functioning democracy,” he added.
The lese majeste law is at the heart of the issue. Officially known as Section 112 of the Criminal Code, the legislation carries up to a 15-year jail sentence for each charge and ensures that almost anyone who criticizes the royal family can be prosecuted. Once used as a way to protect the much-loved previous monarch, increasingly the regulation has become a way for the pro-royal and military-friendly elites to maintain their firm grip on power.
The dismantling of Thailand’s democracy has been gradual. Thaksin was driven out as prime minister by a military coup in 2006, mainly because he was seen as too powerful, and his populist policies viewed as dangerously attractive. His sister Yingluck met a similar fate in 2014, only this time it was a court that ousted her. What followed was almost nine years of military-backed rule. Since 1932, Thailand has been through 12 successful coups (as well as many more attempted ones) and multiple constitutions.
The law has been a useful weapon to curb the opposition. Over the past few years, the Thai Constitutional Court has dissolved several political parties, ostensibly for violating electoral laws, but in reality authorities used the legal system to suppress reformist or opposition voices, as the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance notes.
It is not just representative government that is at stake. The nation is suffering from a prolonged economic malaise because of the constant reshuffling of political leaders and uncertainty over a US$14 billion stimulus plan. Last month, the World Bank trimmed Thailand’s GDP growth forecast for this year to 2.4 percent from 2.8 percent. The nation has lagged compared with its regional peers, posting economic activity of just below 2 percent for the past decade. In a positive development, the government on Monday reported that the economy expanded at the fastest pace in five quarters, registering a rise of 2.3 percent in the three months to June.
Youth unemployment is also a problem. Data from the World Bank showed that last year Thailand had a jobless rate among those aged 15 to 24 of 4.4 percent, with many graduates struggling to find their first job. It is this demographic that has been attracted by the opposition’s promise of change. Despite continued meddling by the military in the electoral system, and the threat of arrest and imprisonment, they remain politically active and engaged.
They are the reason to be optimistic about Thailand’s future, despite the current impasse. The younger population will not stop agitating for change and have found new ways to survive. Take the Move Forward Party. Disbanded from politics, it has re-emerged as the People’s Party, with a new head in place: 37-year-old information technology expert Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut. He has ambitious plans and wants to win enough seats to form a single-party government in the next elections in 2027. This is a tall ask, in a system that usually produces coalitions, especially if the political aristocracy continue to use the law to stack the odds in their favor.
Still, changing the establishment takes time. Thailand’s conservative ruling classes should pay attention to what has happened in places like Bangladesh, where leaders do not respond to voters’ concerns. It makes sense to listen to your people.
Karishma Vaswani is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Asia politics with a special focus on China. Previously, she was the BBC’s lead Asia presenter and worked for the BBC across Asia and South Asia for two decades.
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