When the US and China met for talks in Alaska last week, many observers thought it was the beginning of better relations, but instead China’s representatives resorted to fierce and vulgar language worthy of the Cultural Revolution.
This was Beijing’s declaration that after Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) is elected to a third term, this is how they will treat the rest of the world. At the same time, China’s responsibility for the COVID-19 pandemic is being investigated.
As the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) 20th National Congress — set for the second half of next year — draws closer, the impact of these issues will become even clearer.
‘WOLF WARRIOR’
The most important person in this confrontation between Washington and Beijing is Chinese Central Foreign Affairs Commission Director Yang Jiechi (楊潔篪).
Yang, who has been involved in Sino-US relations for several decades, had in the past made quite an impression on the outside world, thanks to his gentle and cultivated manner, but now he issues threats using the language of China’s “wolf warrior” diplomacy.
Yang might have been gentle and mild-mannered when China’s strategy was to “hide its capabilities and bide its time,” but now he behaves like a hegemon. Even though he has a deep understanding of how the US operates, he took a threatening approach in Alaska, basically saying that Beijing will not accept Washington’s behavior any more.
Yang has not changed, other than in outward appearance, so what needs to change instead is how the world looks at China.
This year marks the CCP’s 100th anniversary, which would be followed by a power struggle at the party’s national congress next year. Four years ago, Xi made it clear that he will become the next Chinese emperor at the congress — just as preposterous as when Yuan Shikai (袁世凱) made himself emperor in 1915 — which not only caused an international uproar, but is certain to also generate opposition against Xi within the party.
Xi must therefore raise the nationalist banner prior to the party congress to ensure that his standing among his people is at its apex, even if that means a return to the Cultural Revolution.
The use of nationalism to consolidate his power will make future US-China relations fraught with danger: China cannot show weakness toward the US for domestic reasons, and coming on the heels of the administration of former US president Donald Trump, US President Joe Biden cannot let China off the hook.
PUBLIC PLAY
The Beijing Winter Olympics in February next year offer yet another opportunity for Xi to flex his muscles for the world to see.
Facing post-COVID-19 pandemic pressures, China has shed its false mask of “resilient authoritarianism,” and, as Yang made clear to the US, China will ignore US values, and show the world that it can lead a world order without the US and that dictatorships can endure.
It might be worth considering separating an understanding of the CCP from an understanding of China: The CCP is not using the methods of the Cultural Revolution simply because it intimidates the world, but also because it appeals to a domestic audience, and thus wins public support.
The clash between the US and China will not be a confrontation of power, but an outdrawn, decades-long conflict of civilizations and order.
Michael Lin holds a master’s degree from National Taiwan University’s Graduate Institute of National Development.
Translated by Perry Svensson
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