Most Chinese provinces and especially the Yangtze River basin have been hit by floods, and as a result, grain shortages are likely to occur in the country this year.
Despite this, Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平), who wants to be personally in charge of everything, has disappeared from sight for quite a while.
The other six members of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Politburo Standing Committee have also disappeared, and Chinese media broadcast little coverage of the floods before Chinese Premier Li Keqiang’s (李克強) inspection of the situation in Guizhou Province on July 6.
Guizhou has been hit by the floods much less than other provinces, so why did Li choose Guizhou? The answer is complicated.
In July 2017, then-Chongqing party secretary Sun Zhengcai (孫政才) was abruptly replaced by then-Guizhou party secretary Chen Miner (陳敏爾), who was reportedly promoted for his outstanding poverty alleviation work in the province. Soon after taking up the post, Chen was appointed to the politburo, and has since not hidden his ambitions to succeed Xi.
Under the plan of Xi’s predecessor Hu Jintao (胡錦濤), Li was to take over as president, and politburo member Hu Chunhua (胡春華) was to succeed Li.
Unfortunately, former president Jiang Zemin (江澤民) and former vice president Zeng Qinghong (曾慶紅) jointly blocked Li by handing power to Xi, who then replaced Sun with his supporter Chen, which must have alarmed Hu Chunhua, who is now only vice premier and might be dumped any time.
Given Xi’s performance in the past few years, the calls for him to step down have grown stronger. Who is likely to take over the leadership if he really loses power? Hu Chunhua seems to be the most qualified. After he had to yield his spot in line to be president, Hu Chunhua might find ample support among those who oppose Xi.
On April 21, CCP mouthpiece People’s Daily Online reported on corruption in the coal mining industry over the past 20 years in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and that nine officials have been investigated. Hu Chunhua was party secretary in the region from 2009 to 2012 and might become the target of an “anti-corruption” crackdown.
As things have progressed to this point, Hu Chunhua will not sit and wait for his death sentence. According to reports from Hong Kong media, he has become increasingly active. Since April, he has visited 13 Chinese provinces, cities or regions despite the COVID-19 outbreak, as if he is preparing to take over from Xi.
Obviously, Li’s inspection in Guizhou was an attempt to dig up dirt on Chen. Following Li’s visit, a video about Dushan County — an impoverished region in Guizhou — borrowing 40 billion yuan (US$5.7 billion) for “vanity projects” went viral on WeChat and other Chinese online platforms. Some of these projects are stunningly luxurious while others are left unfinished. The video is clearly targeting Chen.
Everything from uncovering the various problems in Guizhou to Hu Chunhua’s unexpected activities implies that a severe power struggle could be expected at the annual meeting of the CCP leadership at Beidaihe, which is to take place from late this month to early next month.
Xi’s plan to remain president for life might be in jeopardy as the battle between the two crown princes is becoming apparent.
Paul Lin is a political commentator.
Translated by Eddy Chang
In their recent op-ed “Trump Should Rein In Taiwan” in Foreign Policy magazine, Christopher Chivvis and Stephen Wertheim argued that the US should pressure President William Lai (賴清德) to “tone it down” to de-escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait — as if Taiwan’s words are more of a threat to peace than Beijing’s actions. It is an old argument dressed up in new concern: that Washington must rein in Taipei to avoid war. However, this narrative gets it backward. Taiwan is not the problem; China is. Calls for a so-called “grand bargain” with Beijing — where the US pressures Taiwan into concessions
The term “assassin’s mace” originates from Chinese folklore, describing a concealed weapon used by a weaker hero to defeat a stronger adversary with an unexpected strike. In more general military parlance, the concept refers to an asymmetric capability that targets a critical vulnerability of an adversary. China has found its modern equivalent of the assassin’s mace with its high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) weapons, which are nuclear warheads detonated at a high altitude, emitting intense electromagnetic radiation capable of disabling and destroying electronics. An assassin’s mace weapon possesses two essential characteristics: strategic surprise and the ability to neutralize a core dependency.
Chinese President and Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Chairman Xi Jinping (習近平) said in a politburo speech late last month that his party must protect the “bottom line” to prevent systemic threats. The tone of his address was grave, revealing deep anxieties about China’s current state of affairs. Essentially, what he worries most about is systemic threats to China’s normal development as a country. The US-China trade war has turned white hot: China’s export orders have plummeted, Chinese firms and enterprises are shutting up shop, and local debt risks are mounting daily, causing China’s economy to flag externally and hemorrhage internally. China’s
During the “426 rally” organized by the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the Taiwan People’s Party under the slogan “fight green communism, resist dictatorship,” leaders from the two opposition parties framed it as a battle against an allegedly authoritarian administration led by President William Lai (賴清德). While criticism of the government can be a healthy expression of a vibrant, pluralistic society, and protests are quite common in Taiwan, the discourse of the 426 rally nonetheless betrayed troubling signs of collective amnesia. Specifically, the KMT, which imposed 38 years of martial law in Taiwan from 1949 to 1987, has never fully faced its
RSS