The historic handshake between President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) and the People’s Republic of China’s President Xi Jinping (習近平) in Singapore last weekend is of great significance at two levels.
First, the Ma-Xi meeting is bound to affect the elections on Jan. 16. China has formally acknowledged Taiwan as an independent political entity and has found it necessary to bring the latter to the negotiating table. This bilateral summit represented a milestone for these two rival states to re-engage with each other directly.
A few years ago, reports released by WikiLeaks revealed collaborative efforts by China and the US to stop Taiwan, particularly under former president Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁), from pursuing independence. When China recognized its failure to restrict Chen’s pro-independence force through coercion, it solicited help from Washington to undermine Chen’s popular referendum for the nation’s return to the UN. Because the US did not want an independent Taiwan, it sought to stabilize the diplomatic relationship with China and maintain the “status quo” across the Taiwan Strait.
However, perceiving China as a major geostrategic competitor, US President Barack Obama’s pivot toward the Pacific offers Taiwan a golden opportunity to reset its own agenda. The Obama administration is fast-tracking the Trans-Pacific Partnership to improve economic and strategic ties with its Pacific Asian allies, and some US policymakers appear to be receptive to the electoral victory of the Democratic Progressive Party next year.
This new political climate in Washington puts Taiwan in a stronger position in bilateral talks with China.
Second, China has realized that its longstanding policy of economic co-optation was shattered by the student-led Sunflower movement early last year and the growing pro-independence sentiment among Taiwanese. Since 2000, China has brought Taiwan closer to the mainland by giving financial incentives to lure Taiwanese investment. Beijing hoped that the improvement of cross-strait economic ties would eventually integrate Taiwan into the Chinese political union. As Taiwan drifts into a Chinese orbit, politicians and community leaders have questioned the wisdom of being closely linked to Beijing.
Since the future of East Asia’s geopolitics is contingent upon many variables, the Ma-Xi summit has opened a new topic of discussion among voters. The electorate will fiercely debate the nation’s rapprochement with China in the coming weeks.
Evidently, the best insurance for Taiwan is to assert its democratic right of self-determination at the ballot boxes.
Joseph Tse-Hei Lee is professor of history and codirector of the bachelors’ program in global Asia studies at Pace University in New York.
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