Those foolhardy enough to forecast who will occupy 10 Downing Street or the White House in 10 years’ time would risk being told they needed their heads examined. China is different. Barring a major reversal of fortune, the future leadership of the last major state ruled by a communist party is set until 2022.
The man who will head the ruling group in the Zhongnanhai leadership compound, beside the Forbidden City, for 10 years from 2012 is a stockily built, 57-year-old apparatchik who comes from a group of senior figures in their 50s known as the “princelings” — whose fathers pioneered the People’s Republic of China. Married to a popular singer, Xi Jinping (習近平) has emerged stage by stage since 2007 as the heir apparent when Chinese President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) ends his 10-year term in 2012.
Xi’s rise to the top was apparently sealed last month when a Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Central Committee plenum appointed him vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, which oversees China’s forces.
Illustration: mountain people
British Prime Minister David Cameron would do well to shake his hand, at least, during his visit to Beijing this week.
The appointment means that Xi is perfectly placed to take on the top three jobs of secretary of the CCP, state president and civilian head of the military. Like Hu, he will often be referred to outside China as “President Xi,” but the CCP post is much more important: China is still a Leninist state in which the party rules over the government. He has a reputation as a conciliator, a man who gets on with those around him. Chubby-faced, he smiles more often in public than the grave Hu and there are reports of a periodic twinkle of amusement in his eye. For the most part, photographs are confined to official appearances in a dark business suit with his thick, black hair perfectly parted, but one “man of the people” shot shows him in shirt sleeves kicking a football into the air.
For many years, his wife, Peng Liyuan (彭麗媛), a celebrated folk singer, was better known than he was. They have four children and a rare informal photograph showed them standing smiling by a rock pool in a traditional Chinese garden. Since her husband rose to the top, Peng Liyuan has stopped performing, observing the convention that the wives of Chinese leaders stay in the background in keeping with the predominantly male composition of the leadership.
Xi’s appointment to the military commission last month completed a process begun at the last party congresses in 2007, which elected him to the supreme -decision-making body, the Standing Committee. He came in one place ahead of the man regarded as Hu’s chosen successor, Li Keqiang (李克強). Xi was then appointed vice president, while Li became senior vice premier — and therefore the putative prime minister in the leadership changes due in 2012 to 2013.
It was all very neat as the elite sought to avoid one of the pitfalls of one-party states, the succession issue that can lead to running warfare between rival contenders as happened after the death of Mao Zedong (毛澤東). However, we have little idea of how Xi was chosen. It appears that he was the most broadly acceptable member of the new fifth generation of Chinese leaders, not just to the present Standing Committee, but to big business, entrenched interest groups and the former party chief and president Jiang Zemin (江澤民). This would be a perpetuation of the consensus style of leadership that has evolved under Hu, in contrast to the individualistic rule of Mao and Deng Xiaoping (鄧小平).
The man who will sit at the top of the power structure ruling 1.3 billion people in the world’s second-biggest economy was born in June 1953, a native of Shaanxi Province, a poor region of northwestern China. His father, Xi Zhongxun (習仲勛), a long-time communist, was deputy prime minister from 1959 to 1962, but fell foul of the Cultural Revolution started by Mao in 1966. His son was “sent down” to the countryside for his father’s alleged sins. The young man was also refused membership of the party while China went through 10 years of turmoil at the hands of Mao, the Red Guards and the Gang of Four.
However, the family fortunes perked up when Deng won the power struggle set off by Mao’s death in 1976. Xi Zhongxun was appointed governor of Guangdong Province, which spearheaded the market-led economic policies launched by Deng at the end of 1978. Xi implemented the first Special Economic Zone in Shenzhen, which grew from a fishing village across the border from Hong Kong into a manufacturing hub housing millions of migrant workers. Among his proteges was Hu.
In old age, the party veteran showed his independence of mind by arguing for wider reform and criticizing the repression of the protests in 1989 that culminated in the bloodbath on Beijing on June 4.
This free speaking did not stop his son’s rise. After finally gaining party membership in 1974, Xi Jinping studied at a top Beijing university, where he graduated from the school of humanities and social sciences, majoring in Marxist theory and ideological education. After doing a course in chemical engineering, he went to work in the general office of the State Council — the equivalent of the government — and the Central Military Commission.
He worked his way up the party ranks in central China and went on to a succession of more senior jobs in Fujian Province coast. From there, he transferred to the neighboring Zhenjiang Province, a hive of private manufacturing enterprises, where he worked with business and gained a reputation for fighting corruption. In 2007, he was catapulted to Shanghai after the party secretary there was ousted in a major political corruption scandal.
Xi Jinping’s feet hardly had time to touch the ground before he was elevated to the politburo Standing Committee in 2007 and moved to Beijing. He was given political responsibility for the 2008 Beijing Olympics and for supervising Hong Kong, as well as being entrusted with the politically important job of president of the party school, the highest institution training officials of the CCP.
As president-in-waiting, he has visited Australia, Germany, Japan and the Americas. According to people who met him on these trips, he was polished, interested in what he was shown and generally affable. However, in Mexico last year, he lashed out at “a few foreigners, with full bellies, who have nothing better to do than try to point fingers at our country ... China does not export revolution, hunger or poverty; nor does China cause you any headaches. What else do you want?”
That kind of sentiment chimes with the widespread pride felt in China at the economic record of the last three decades and the way the government’s US$1.9 trillion rescue package has restored growth to 10 percent.
However, the new fifth -generation of leaders will still have to grapple with huge remaining problems such as the need to find a more sustainable economic growth model, the growing wealth disparities, huge ecological devastation, corruption — and the fundamental political question of whether the CCP can maintain its iron grip on power or whether political and legal reform is required if China is to live up to its potential. Little is known of how Xi would deal with such issues. He and the other “princelings” are generally linked to the coastal high-growth regions and have connections with big business.
In Western terms, they might be expected to sympathize with calls for political and legal reform, but there is no evidence of this. Indeed, contrary to the belief that economic liberalization would lead to political liberalization, a desire to preserve the privileges they have gained from growth may incline the elite and the middle class towards self-defensive conservatism.
If Xi is a spokesperson for this group, he has shown no sign of being ready to loosen the reins. Last year, he took charge of a party department that clamped down on any putative signs of dissent, including Web sites. In May, he told officials and students they should study party theory and avoid “empty words” since “unhealthy” writing could harm efficiency.
If his succession in 2012 does not appear in doubt, what nobody knows is how Xi will use his power. It may be that China’s consensual leadership means it does not make a lot of difference who sits at the top of the party. The era of Mao and Deng is long gone. The country is run by managers trying to deal with enormous challenges in a changing world. Xi Jinping is as good a symbol as any of the China of the coming decade.
The Xi Jinping file
Born: In1953, the youngest son of Xi Zhongxun, later a vice premier.
Best of times: Last month, Xi was named vice chairman of the Central Military Commission under Chinese President Hu Jintao, an appointment which tipped him as the probable successor to Hu. Until his appointment to the vice presidency of China in 2008, Xi had a far lower profile than his wife, Peng Liyuan, a famous singer.
Worst of times: In 1963, Xi’s father was banished following an internal power struggle. The teenaged Xi was forced to leave school and spent seven years working as a farm laborer in Shaanxi.
Quotes from Xi:
“I ate a lot more bitterness than most people” — referring to his seven years of exile.
“Are you trying to give me a fright?” — when asked in 2002 if he was likely to become China’s leader within the next decade.
What others say about Xi:
“I would put him in the Nelson Mandela class of persons. A person with enormous emotional stability who does not allow his personal misfortunes or sufferings to affect his judgment. In other words, he is impressive.”
— Singaporean Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew
There is much evidence that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is sending soldiers from the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to support Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — and is learning lessons for a future war against Taiwan. Until now, the CCP has claimed that they have not sent PLA personnel to support Russian aggression. On 18 April, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelinskiy announced that the CCP is supplying war supplies such as gunpowder, artillery, and weapons subcomponents to Russia. When Zelinskiy announced on 9 April that the Ukrainian Army had captured two Chinese nationals fighting with Russians on the front line with details
On a quiet lane in Taipei’s central Daan District (大安), an otherwise unremarkable high-rise is marked by a police guard and a tawdry A4 printout from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs indicating an “embassy area.” Keen observers would see the emblem of the Holy See, one of Taiwan’s 12 so-called “diplomatic allies.” Unlike Taipei’s other embassies and quasi-consulates, no national flag flies there, nor is there a plaque indicating what country’s embassy this is. Visitors hoping to sign a condolence book for the late Pope Francis would instead have to visit the Italian Trade Office, adjacent to Taipei 101. The death of
The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT), joined by the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), held a protest on Saturday on Ketagalan Boulevard in Taipei. They were essentially standing for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), which is anxious about the mass recall campaign against KMT legislators. President William Lai (賴清德) said that if the opposition parties truly wanted to fight dictatorship, they should do so in Tiananmen Square — and at the very least, refrain from groveling to Chinese officials during their visits to China, alluding to meetings between KMT members and Chinese authorities. Now that China has been defined as a foreign hostile force,
On April 19, former president Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) gave a public speech, his first in about 17 years. During the address at the Ketagalan Institute in Taipei, Chen’s words were vague and his tone was sour. He said that democracy should not be used as an echo chamber for a single politician, that people must be tolerant of other views, that the president should not act as a dictator and that the judiciary should not get involved in politics. He then went on to say that others with different opinions should not be criticized as “XX fellow travelers,” in reference to
RSS