Goldman Sachs yesterday revised downward its forecast for local firms’ notebook computer shipments this quarter and next quarter after several local manufacturers last week offered cautious sales guidance for the second half of this year.
The investment research team of the US investment bank said in a report that it cut its second-quarter notebook shipment forecast to an increase of 7 percent from the first quarter, down from the previous 8 percent growth.
The research team, led by analyst Henry King (金文衡), also lowered its third-quarter notebook shipment forecast to an increase of 9 percent from the current quarter, compared with the earlier estimate of 12 percent growth.
“Due to low visibility and concerns of soft macro conditions, most notebook ODMs [original design manufacturers] reduced second-half guidance at their annual general meetings last week,” the report said. “Due to weak macro [environment], we expect back-to-school demand to be muted [in the third quarter].”
QUANTA
Quanta Computer Inc (廣達), the world’s largest contract notebook maker, told shareholders on Friday that it expected shipments in the third and fourth quarters to rise by 5 percent to 10 percent sequentially, and maintained its forecast of a 10 percent rise in laptop shipments to more than 57 million units this year, compared with 52.1 million units for last year.
Compal Electronics Inc (仁寶), the world’s second-largest contract notebook maker, also told shareholders on Friday last week that its notebook shipments in the second half would rise by 15 percent to 20 percent druing the first half, after cutting its second-quarter guidance to increase 5 percent sequentially from the original estimate of 10 percent growth because of a shortfall in orders from Acer Inc (宏碁).
Earlier this month, Compal revised downward its full-year notebook shipment estimate to 48 million units from 55 million units because of an expected decrease in netbook shipments.
Goldman Sachs said Quanta remained one of its top picks among notebook ODMs, thanks to Apple Inc’s strong laptop demand and the Taiwanese firm’s diversification into the server business.
“We continue to see Quanta as the main beneficiary of MacBook Air’s refreshment with volume kickoff in early third quarter,” Goldman Sachs said.
WISTRON
As for Wistron Corp (緯創), which offered shareholders a conservative outlook last Wednesday for the notebook computer industry, Goldman said it expected the company to see shipments grow 10 percent sequentially in the third quarter on Lenovo Group Ltd’s (聯想) strong demand and new orders from Sony Corp.
Wistron, the third-biggest contract laptop computer maker in the world, did not provide new sales guidance last week for the second half of this year. The company shipped 27.45 million laptops last year.
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