The latest computerized scenario carried out by the military showed that in a war with China, Taipei would be occupied by enemy forces in just three days, a magazine report said yesterday.
Last month’s simulation, attended by President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九), came amid warnings that China was expected to increase the number of its missiles aimed at Taiwan by several hundred to more than 1,900 by the end of this year. These include ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and other weaponry deployed throughout China.
Under the scenario, which assumed war at next year’s force levels, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) launched intensive air raids on Taiwan before sending in ground troops from the sea and air, the Chinese-language Next Magazine reported.
The drill found that Chinese troops could march into Taipei on the third day of hostilities, seizing control of top military command facilities and the Presidential Office, Next said, quoting unnamed sources.
The results were a severe blow to Ma’s goal of building “solid defense and efficient deterrence” with a small but elite army, the magazine said.
During his presidential campaign, Ma vowed to build a stronger military as a deterrent against aggression by Beijing. Under Ma’s plan, Taipei has worked to achieve an all-volunteer force, but this will come at great cost to the defense budget, which is set at US$9.3 billion this year, a 6.9 percent drop from last year’s US$9.6 billion and US$10.5 billion in 2008.
The military must also cope with a number of aging defense systems that are due for refurbishing or replacement, including its F-16A/B fighter aircraft.
The Ministry of National Defense dismissed Next’s report.
The conclusion to this year’s scenario would be a dramatic departure from the computer simulation segment of the Han Kuang exercises held in June last year, in which, after seeing the air force and navy annihilated by PLA forces, reorganized army forces managed to mop up the eight divisions of Chinese soldiers that landed in the southern, central and northern parts of the country.
Last year’s scenario also did not factor in the possibility of decapitation attacks by the PLA, which had figured, albeit controversially, in previous years’ exercises.
Since Ma took office, the live-fire exercises accompanying the computer simulations have been canceled or downsized, which many have seen as a concession to rapprochement efforts. The military has also been instructed to prepare for humanitarian assistance and natural disasters over the possibility of a Chinese invasion.
In recent years, defense analysts have raised the specter of a shift in the balance of power in the Taiwan Strait, fears that stem from the US’ reluctance to sell Taipei advanced weaponry and years of double-digit growth in the declared PLA annual military budget. Recent reports conclude that the balance has now shifted in Beijing’s favor.
Under US-Taiwan security pacts, Taiwan’s military would be expected to hold off a Chinese invasion for 10 days to two weeks before US forces could intervene.
One of two tropical depressions that formed off Taiwan yesterday morning could turn into a moderate typhoon by the weekend, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said yesterday. Tropical Depression No. 21 formed at 8am about 1,850km off the southeast coast, CWA forecaster Lee Meng-hsuan (李孟軒) said. The weather system is expected to move northwest as it builds momentum, possibly intensifying this weekend into a typhoon, which would be called Mitag, Lee said. The radius of the storm is expected to reach almost 200km, she said. It is forecast to approach the southeast of Taiwan on Monday next week and pass through the Bashi Channel
WARNING: People in coastal areas need to beware of heavy swells and strong winds, and those in mountainous areas should brace for heavy rain, the CWA said The Central Weather Administration (CWA) yesterday issued sea and land warnings for Typhoon Ragasa, forecasting that it would continue to intensify and affect the nation the most today and tomorrow. People in Hualien and Taitung counties, and mountainous areas in Yilan and Pingtung counties, should brace for damage caused by extremely heavy rain brought by the typhoon’s outer rim, as it was upgraded to a super typhoon yesterday morning, the CWA said. As of 5:30pm yesterday, the storm’s center was about 630km southeast of Oluanpi (鵝鑾鼻), Taiwan’s southernmost tip, moving northwest at 21kph, and its maximum wind speed had reached
The Central Weather Administration (CWA) yesterday said that it expected to issue a sea warning for Typhoon Ragasa this morning and a land warning at night as it approached Taiwan. Ragasa intensified from a tropical storm into a typhoon at 8am yesterday, the CWA said, adding that at 2pm, it was about 1,110km east-southeast of Oluanpi (鵝鑾鼻), Taiwan’s southernmost tip. The typhoon was moving northwest at 13kph, with sustained winds of up to 119kph and gusts reaching 155kph, the CWA Web site showed. Forecaster Liu Pei-teng (劉沛滕) said that Ragasa was projected to strengthen as it neared the Bashi Channel, with its 200km
PUBLIC ANNOUNCEMENTS: Hualien and Taitung counties declared today a typhoon day, while schools and offices in parts of Kaohsiung and Pingtung counties are also to close Typhoon Ragasa was forecast to hit its peak strength and come closest to Taiwan from yesterday afternoon through today, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said. Taiwan proper could be out of the typhoon’s radius by midday and the sea warning might be lifted tonight, it added. CWA senior weather specialist Wu Wan-hua (伍婉華) said that Ragasa’s radius had reached the Hengchun Peninsula by 11am yesterday and was expected to hit Taitung County and Kaohsiung by yesterday evening. Ragasa was forecast to move to Taiwan’s southern offshore areas last night and to its southwestern offshore areas early today, she added. As of 8pm last night,
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