In response to US President Donald Trump’s policy of maximum pressure, Iran has seized a second foreign oil tanker. Trump’s approach to bringing Iran’s Islamic regime to heel clearly is not working. If anything, it has created another Middle East flashpoint, undermined transatlantic relations, benefited Russia and China, and struck a serious blow to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Where to from here?
Trump’s biggest problem is that the other signatories to the 2015 nuclear agreement — officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) — from which he has withdrawn the US, have remained committed to the deal.
The UK, France, Germany, Russia and China have also opposed Trump’s imposition of crippling economic sanctions on Iran. They are committed to preserving the agreement and to doing everything possible to persuade Iran’s leaders to continue to adhere to it.
The European signatories have established a special mechanism to facilitate trade and business with Iran at the risk of US retaliation, while Russia and China have expanded their economic and strategic ties with the Islamic Republic, marking the first time in the history of the Western alliance that the US’ European allies have joined forces with its rivals.
These powers’ support for Iran is not adequate to compensate for US secondary sanctions, which punish all governments and companies that do business there.
However, it can soften the sanctions’ effects and strengthen the Iranian regime’s resilience. Iran has already shown its capacity to resist by downing a US spy drone, allegedly targeting six oil tankers and seizing two more in the vicinity of the Strait of Hormuz. It has thus signaled its ability to choke the strait, through which one-fifth of the world’s oil passes, despite the US show of force in the Persian Gulf to ensure maritime safety.
Trump’s usual confusing policy pronouncements have not helped him either. He has moved from one end of the spectrum, defined by hawkish US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, US National Security Adviser John Bolton and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, to act militarily against Iran, to the other end, where his own “no war” impulses have prevailed.
He seeks to use the US’ economic power, combined with threats, rather than military might, to achieve his objectives.
However, when it comes to Iran, he has picked the wrong target. He and his advisers have shown a very poor understanding of the nature of the Iranian regime and have underestimated its reactive capability in a highly complex region.
Trump’s team has missed the point that the regime is well entrenched and benefits from a robust regional security structure, stretching from Afghanistan to Lebanon and Yemen. It is ideological in character, but pragmatic when it comes to its survival. The fortunes of the ruling clerics and their supporters are intertwined with the regime’s survival.
The highest echelons of the regime still comprise those who are very distrustful of the US, owing to Washington’s long years of support for the monarchy of Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi. Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who led the 1979 revolution that toppled the Shah, sought to build an Islamic polity with the capacity to withstand its internal and external adversaries.
Khomeini died in mid-1989, but his successor, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has essentially followed in his footsteps, acting both ideologically and pragmatically to ensure the continuity of the Islamic regime.
While resentful of the US and its allies, he has been flexible enough, for example, to bless the JCPOA, forge close relations with Russia and China, and maintain reasonable ties with European powers to cope with US pressure.
Meanwhile, the Islamic regime has worked intensively to build its soft and hard power, involving a network of sectarian and strategic partners across the region. It has nurtured an asymmetrical warfare strategy not only to survive a foreign attack, but to turn it into a devastating regional confrontation. It has lived with US sanctions for most of its 40 years and mastered a variety of methods to circumvent US pressure.
This does not mean that the regime is unwilling to renegotiate the JCPOA. It has already signaled a willingness to do so, but only if this does not threaten its domestic and regional security and only if given sufficient economic and strategic incentives to do so.
The regime remains factionalized between hardliners and moderates, with the former in control of more levers of power than the latter.
However, it would be erroneous to assume that in the face of a serious external threat all the factions would not unite and be supported by a majority of the public, who have historically been known for their fierce nationalist sentiment.
The US policy of confronting and containing the regime has not borne fruit. Former US president Barack Obama’s policy of engagement proved to be more productive, as the conclusion of the JCPOA showed.
Trump, however, has painted himself into a corner, and now faces the prospect of an unwinnable military confrontation with far-reaching regional and wider implications, including economically devastating effects on oil supplies and prices.
Amin Saikal is a professor of political science at the Australian National University.
Copyright: Project Syndicate
Recently, China launched another diplomatic offensive against Taiwan, improperly linking its “one China principle” with UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 to constrain Taiwan’s diplomatic space. After Taiwan’s presidential election on Jan. 13, China persuaded Nauru to sever diplomatic ties with Taiwan. Nauru cited Resolution 2758 in its declaration of the diplomatic break. Subsequently, during the WHO Executive Board meeting that month, Beijing rallied countries including Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Belarus, Egypt, Nicaragua, Sri Lanka, Laos, Russia, Syria and Pakistan to reiterate the “one China principle” in their statements, and assert that “Resolution 2758 has settled the status of Taiwan” to hinder Taiwan’s
Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s (李顯龍) decision to step down after 19 years and hand power to his deputy, Lawrence Wong (黃循財), on May 15 was expected — though, perhaps, not so soon. Most political analysts had been eyeing an end-of-year handover, to ensure more time for Wong to study and shadow the role, ahead of general elections that must be called by November next year. Wong — who is currently both deputy prime minister and minister of finance — would need a combination of fresh ideas, wisdom and experience as he writes the nation’s next chapter. The world that
Can US dialogue and cooperation with the communist dictatorship in Beijing help avert a Taiwan Strait crisis? Or is US President Joe Biden playing into Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) hands? With America preoccupied with the wars in Europe and the Middle East, Biden is seeking better relations with Xi’s regime. The goal is to responsibly manage US-China competition and prevent unintended conflict, thereby hoping to create greater space for the two countries to work together in areas where their interests align. The existing wars have already stretched US military resources thin, and the last thing Biden wants is yet another war.
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, people have been asking if Taiwan is the next Ukraine. At a G7 meeting of national leaders in January, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida warned that Taiwan “could be the next Ukraine” if Chinese aggression is not checked. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has said that if Russia is not defeated, then “today, it’s Ukraine, tomorrow it can be Taiwan.” China does not like this rhetoric. Its diplomats ask people to stop saying “Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow.” However, the rhetoric and stated ambition of Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) on Taiwan shows strong parallels with