Possibly reversing a refusal by his two predecessors, a widely reported decision by US President Donald Trump to sell 66 new Lockheed Martin F-16V jets would satisfy a decade-old Taiwanese requirement with the latest version of a fourth-generation fighter that first flew in 1974.
A looming threat of invasion by China causes many strategists to oppose continued Taiwanese investment in expensive air assets.
However, potential near-term advances in weapons and electronics for this fighter and a later acquisition of new supporting weapons systems could make Taiwan’s new and upgraded F-16s decisive weapons in the Taiwan Strait well into the 2020s.
From the 1950s until the late 1990s, Taiwan’s air force sought to maintain technical superiority over the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) to deter Chinese attack and prevent attack, if needed, by carrying the air battle to Chinese territory.
However, this strategy has been undermined by the PLAAF’s acquisition of 1,200 or more fourth and fourth-plus-generation fighters and thousands of fourth-generation surface-to-air missiles (SAMs).
In the 1990s, the PLAAF purchased fourth-generation twin-turbofan engine Russian Sukhoi Su-27SK single-seat fighters and twin-seat Su-30MKK strike fighters, soon copied by Shenyang Aircraft Corp (SAC), perhaps totaling more than 600 today.
These include close to 100 new SAC J-16 twin-seat strike fighters considered to be fourth-plus-generation, due to their being equipped with a long-range and difficult to jam active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar.
Close to 500 single-turbofan engine Chengdu Aircraft Corp (CAC) J-10 fighters are in the PLAAF, and the current production J-10C version features fourth-plus-generation capabilities due to an AESA radar.
SAC fighters now use indigenous Chinese-developed turbofan engines and new CAC fighters might soon do so. Both also use the new fifth-generation PL-10 helmet display-sighted short-range air-to-air missile (AAM) and the new 150km-range PL-15 AAMs.
China has started to deploy its fifth-generation CAC J-20, which is designed more as a long-range stealthy interceptor until it can incorporate maneuverability-enhancing thrust-vectored engines for all-around air dominance.
However, CAC and SAC might also be working on sixth-generation combat aircraft featuring far greater information warfare capabilities and new energy weapons, to be ready by the mid-2030s.
Also shifting the air power balance to China’s favor has been the PLA’s acquisition of fourth-generation SAMs, such as the 150km to 200km-range Russian Almaz-Antey S-300 family and most recently the 250km to 400km-range S-400 family.
The later SAM means that with the help of airborne warning and control system (AWACS) radar aircraft, the PLAAF can intercept Taiwanese aircraft beyond its eastern shore. These could soon be followed by 200km and 300km-range versions of the China Aerospace Science and Industry Corp HQ-9 SAM family.
To begin to meet these challenges, Taipei in the late 2000s began pressing Washington for 66 new F-16s to replace its French Dassault Mirage 2000 fighters, a respectable fighter for 1980s level threats.
The administrations of former US presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama refused to sell new F-16s, but Obama in 2011 did approve radar and electronic upgrades for 140-plus F-16s sold by then-US president George H.W. Bush in 1992.
The upgraded F-16s incorporate the Northrop Grumman AN/APG-83 Scalable Agile Beam Radar, an AESA radar with greater range, anti-air and ground-attack capabilities and better electronic warfare capabilities.
The 66 F-16Vs Taiwan wants to acquire also have this radar and new conformal fuselage fuel tanks to extend range while allowing more armament to be carried.
This later improvement could prove decisive. As the F-16V might be equipped with new weapons pylons capable of carrying three AIM-120 AMRAAM medium-range missiles, the F-16V might be able to carry up to 16 AIM-120s.
However, in the new US defense budget there is increased funding for its Small Advanced Capabilities Missile (SACM), which could result in an AAM half the size of the AMRAAM, but with greater range.
On four new pylons or in more aerodynamic weapons pods, the F-16V might be able to carry 24 SACM-size AAMs, plus four more AIM-120-size missiles, for a potential load of 28 AAMs. With targeting assistance from AWACS or other fighters, one F-16V could dispatch a whole unit or regiment of PLAAF combat aircraft.
Or, thinking larger, 66 F-16Vs could in theory carry more than 1,800 AAMs, greater than the PLAAF’s total number of advanced combat aircraft. Older upgraded F-16s might also eventually carry up to 16 to 28 SACM-size and AIM-120 missiles.
To supplant its slow and vulnerable E-2T AWACS, Taiwan should be sold a small number of fifth-generation stealthy F-35Bs with even longer-range radar and target detection capabilities, which could serve as “quarterbacks” to manage air battles prosecuted by missile-heavy F-16s.
Taiwan also needs hypersonic attack missiles to take out PLAAF SAM sites, also under development by the US. What this means is that Taipei has options that could allow it to contest air superiority over the Taiwan Strait well into the 2020s.
In turn, this can serve to undermine Beijing’s confidence in its gathering plans to attack Taiwan.
With more time, Taiwan could then pursue other necessary military investments, including fifth and sixth-generation weapons, to ensure deterrence on the Taiwan Strait into the 2030s.
Richard Fisher Jr is a senior fellow with the International Assessment and Strategy Center.
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